Pulses of southerly groundswell during this easterly long weekend

Guy Dixon picture
Guy Dixon (Guy Dixon)

Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Friday 25th March)

Best Days: Saturday morning and Sunday morning

Recap: 

Beautiful conditions persisted for the better half of Thursday with offshore breezes continuing until around lunchtime. Clean options were breaking at most spots, varying from 3-4ft, occasionally bigger on the sets pushing 5ft at times.

Today, conditions haven’t been as pleasant following a night of onshore breezes. The lack of an offshore breeze has left some residual bump in the mix, although the size is holding in the 3-4ft range.

This weekend (Saturday 26th - Sunday 27th):

East/northeasterly trade energy will begin its slow downward trend from today, fading from the 3ft+ range on Saturday, more so throughout Sunday from the 3ft range.

Pulses of southerly energy are still on the cards however, providing options across south facing beaches as the other swell windows gradually wind down.

An initial pulse is due to peak this afternoon, with sets already in the 3ft range, perhaps rising to the 3ft+ range later generated by a front and small embedded low which edged into the southern swell window on Wednesday.

After fading from the 2-3ft range on Saturday, a second pulse of southerly groundswell is due on Sunday generated by a broader system, with more elongated fetches working deeper in the Southern Ocean as we speak.

Inconsistent sets are due to increase throughout the day, peaking in the afternoon in the 3-4ft range, backed up soon after by a third swell front.

This third pulse is a result of a strong front which is expected to move to the south of Tasmania this evening, displaying fairly intense southwesterly fetches which should provide a kick that may be seen late on the South Coast Sunday, more visible Monday morning to 3-5ft across south facing beaches.

One factor of these southerly swells that is worth considering is the active sea state of the Southern Ocean. Swell generating across this part of the globe is efficient and paid due to the unsettled nature of the ocean. Any systems which work upon this unsettled sea state may quickly generate a strong swell.

Light southwesterly breezes are on the cards for Saturday morning, tending west/southwest at times. Conditions then look to deteriorate as breezes swing southeasterly into the afternoon.

Sunday is also looking at a light variable-southwesterly airflow in the morning, preceding a gusty south/southeasterly change from the afternoon.

From this point, options will become limited to southern corners of the open beaches where the dominant source of swell will be from the east/northeast.

Next week (Monday 28th onward):

As trade energy continues to slowly fade from the 2ft+ range early next week, the south swell magnets will also continue to see pulses of groundswell generated by broader frequent, but less intense southwesterly fetches following weak frontal activity.

Tuesday should see a pulse to around 3ft+, followed by a less favourable pulse on Wednesday afternoon to around 2ft+.

Unfortunately Monday looks to be hampered by an east/southeasterly breeze from the get go, easing throughout the day. Quality is likely to be lacking, tricky to find a decent wave until the late afternoon.

Apart from the early morning session when breezes are form the southwest, Tuesday will also prove difficult to find a workable wave as seabreezes have an impact on the quality.

Wednesday holds the next best chance of a true offshore breeze, cleaning things up as the substantial swell fades.

Comments

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 28 Mar 2016 at 8:43am

The same swell that impacted the Victorian coast is marching up the Nothern Beaches this morning.

Long period lines breaking on the low tide. Photo by Mickfree

batfink's picture
batfink's picture
batfink Monday, 28 Mar 2016 at 7:27pm

Bit of a surprise package this weekend. More like 3-4 on Friday with a few bigger sets that I was underneath. Saturday was bigger again and cleaner, not expected at all, Sunday dropped off and got really weird and funky, before a late Sunday pick-up which lasted through Monday morning, where 5 foot easy on the bigger sets.

All up, a forecast that looked quite reasonable was mostly much better than that. Just need some banks that can handle it, but had a lot of fun out there this morning.