Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 3rd September)

Best Days: Thurs: very large, windy but easing S/SE swell, still offering some waves at unusual spots. Fri: small clean surf at protected locations, with poor winds at open beaches. Sat/Sun: OK leftovers at open beaches.

Recap: Fun but slowly easing E/SE swell Tuesday with early offshores ahead of a moderate S’ly change just before lunch (in Sydney) that wiped out the afternoon’s surf prospects at open beaches. A large new S’ly groundswell rocketed in overnight, providing some of the biggest waves of the year at a few exposed south facing spots (10ft? 12ft? Bigger?). However there’s been an impressive diversity in wave heights, with some protected southern corners seeing very small surf considering what’s happening at nearby exposed beaches. Winds are howling from the S/SW (following an early sou’wester). In particular Wattamolla (just south of Cronulla) was gusting S’ly at 62kts a few hours before sunrise.

This week (Sep 4-5)

Using today’s swell as a common baseline for the forecast period, we can safely assume that wave heights are going ease considerably in size over the coming days. 

The core fetch around this Tasman Low is still quite active, but positioned east of about Sydney and aimed to points further north. In fact, looking at the synoptic chart it’d be a fair assessment that the low itself is very slow moving at the moment. It's expected to begin a slow eastwards trajectory on Thursday.

As such, we’re looking at another day of large waves from the southern quadrant on Thursday, but the big difference from today is that the slightly different location of the fetch (compared to yesterday), and its near-stationary position will allow for the swell direction to swing more S/SE. This will help to open up a wide range of protected options that were (surprisingly) small today.  

That being said, the overall swell trend will somewhat ease throughout Thursday. South facing beaches in Sydney should still manage somewhere in the 8-10ft range in the morning (bigger in the Hunter, but smaller south of Wollongong), with sheltered locations considerably smaller (say, 5-6ft most open beaches, 3-4ft protected southern corners). We’ll probably see a couple of feet lost through the afternoon too. Gusty SW winds early morning will swing S/SW with a possible late S’ly tendency as the low starts to track east. In short, if you found somewhere worthwhile today it’ll probably be your best option again tomorrow.

On Friday winds are expected to veer moderate to fresh S/SE as the Tasman Low tracks closer to New Zealand and a ridge of high pressure builds across the Far South. It’ll still be very big at south facing beaches (early 5-6ft+ sets, smaller later) but with these winds you’ll need to hunt down a protected southern corner for smaller, cleaner surf. I’m not particularly confident for an early period of SW winds in any region on Friday morning, but there is faint hope that the Northern Beaches may buck the regional trend and offer something worthwhile for a few hours. Keep your expectations low.

This weekend (Sep 6-7)

Not a fantastic weekend for surfers in southern NSW but there will be plenty of waves if your quality expectations aren’t set too high. We’re essentially looking at an easing swell trend from the SE (early 4ft sets at open beaches Saturday morning, easing thereafter and throughout Sunday) but winds are also expected to remain from the SE as the ridge across the Far South holds position. 

There is a moderate chance - say, 40-50% - that we’ll see an hour or three of early SW winds across a handful of beaches both mornings (Northern Beaches topping the list again, with the South Coast also a contender) but in general wave quality will certainly be a few steps removed from the perfection we saw on Monday. 

So, the take home message is that you’ll definitely get wet all weekend, with the most size due early Saturday - but it’s not worth moving your diary around for.

Longer term (Sep 8 onwards)

The models have downgraded the front originally expected to push through the southern Tasman Sea on Sunday. Consequently, surf potential has been scaled back for early next week (around Tues/Wed). We’ll still see some new southerly energy during this period but it’ll really only favour exposed south facing beaches with inconsistent 2-3ft sets.

Other than that there is nothing else of interest lining up in the longer term, with small residual energy tipped for much of next week, maybe even a funky short range NE windswell during the middle of the week.  Let’s see how things are stacking up in Friday’s updated notes.