South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 29th Sep)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell late Sat, persisting Sun favouring south of the border
• N’ly winds over the weekend, lighter in SEQLD, strong in NENSW
• Punchy NE windswell mid next week, becoming sizey Wed PM, Thurs
• Small E’ly tradewind swell in the mix  from Tues next week
• Potential for fun waves as winds shift offshore Thurs
• S swell next weekend if low forms in Tasman- early days still, check back Mon for updates

Recap

Fun, mixed bag swells continue with yesterday seeing surf from the E, SE and S-S/SE, with sets to 3ft widely reported across NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD. Clean-ish conditions early under a light morning flow with SE winds through the day. Size has wound back a notch today with a mix of E, S and E/SE swells to 2-3ft in NENSW, smaller 2ft in SEQLD and some fun beachies around under light morning W-NW winds, tending NE by mid morning. 

A few fun options this morning under light winds

This weekend (Sep30-Oct1)

We’ve got a strong, expansive front passing through the Tasman at present will which supply some small pulses of S swell over the coming days. High pressure over NSW is moving NE into the Tasman, with a N’ly flow presently developing.

Sat morning looks the best conditions of the weekend with a lighter NW flow for the morning, tending N/NE and freshening in the a’noon. The Sunshine Coast should see even lighter/variable winds through the morning. Surf-wise we’re again going to see a blend of swell trains, with small E swell being joined by some shorter period S swell in the morning. No great size, 2ft through the morning at the magnets with the occ. 3footer at S facing beaches in NENSW. By the a’noon N’lies will be full strength across NENSW, just a notch lighter in SEQLD.

The N’ly fetch adjacent to the MNC coast overnight Sat will see some NE windswell join the chat on Sun across the MNC to 2ft, smaller north of Yamba. Full strength N’ly winds for Sun, with just a brief period of lighter NNW winds in the morning. There will be some longer period S swell in the mix for Sun to 2-3ft at NENSW S facing beaches if you can find a backbench handling that swell direction. 

Next week (Oct2 onwards)

Still looking like a dynamic week ahead. A trough stalls around the MNC, possibly just reaching Coffs with a weak S’ly change. Further north we’ll see lighter N’lies as the pattern is briefly disrupted. Just small swell in the water if you can find somewhere clean. Mostly small NE-E/NE swell with some fading mid period S in the mix offering up some 2ft sets at S swell magnets.

By Tues we’ll start to see a stronger N’ly pattern develop, combined with a developing trade flow in the Central Coral Sea. Not much surf to start, but by close of play we should see a small increase in  NE windswell and E’ly trade swell to 2ft. Fresh N-N/NE winds in NENSW, lighter in SEQLD.

That N’ly fetch really winds up o/night Tues into Wed with increasing NE windswell into Wed. The heads of the fetch extends up past Fraser Island but the strongest winds are really south of Ballina-Yamba (see below) so we will see a N-S gradient in wave heights with the MNC up into the 3-4ft range (possible bigger 5ft), grading smaller up into SEQLD- likely in the 3ft range. Still quite a significant NE windswell. Fresh N-N/NE winds through Wed.

The trough is modelled to deepen off the Gippsland coast in the wee hrs of Thurs, bringing fresh NW-W’lies for the early and a peak in size to 3-5ft (expect revisions on Mon), likely easing as the fetch is shunted eastwards by the approaching front/trough.

Clean NE leftovers and small E’ly trade swell under offshore winds for Fri, likely in the 3ft range, with a S’ly change likely in the a’noon.

There’s still considerable model divergence last next week as the trough deepens into a surface low off the Gippsland Coast and moves East into the Tasman. 

EC continues to be more bullish, suggesting near gales to gales in the swell window and a fast rising S swell through Sat into Sun, potentially into the 5-6ft range or bigger.

GFS has a more modest kick Sat before a sizey 4-5ft S swell Sun.

We’re still a week away from this event, so no doubt we’ll have some revisions Mon and further updates through the week- hopefully not downwards. 

Until then, spring mixed bag continues over the weekend.

Have a great weekend!