Small and clean from the S this weekend (tiny north of the border) with more of the same next week
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 7th July)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Small inconsistent surf from the S/SE for the weekend with mostly offshore winds
- Typical winter week ahead next week wth small S swell pulses due Mon/Tues and Thurs PM/Fri, favouring NENSW for size, mostly tiny in SEQLD
- Possible peaky tradewind swell next weekend- check back Mon for revisions
- Otherwise, more S swell pulses into the medium term
Recap
S/SE groundswell keeps on coming for NENSW (much smaller in SEQLD), with yesterday seeing clean 2-3ft sets in NENSW, smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD, groomed by offshore winds up to lunch-time. A’noon N’lies made a mess of most beaches with a few backbeaches benefiting from an a’noon pulse in long period S/SE groundswell to 3-4ft. Things have slowed down into today with size down a notch (2-3ft in NENSW, 1ft in SEQLD)) and longer waits. Still nice when they come under offshore winds, a bit fresh and gusty in some locations.
Still some energy in the sets south of the border
This weekend (July 8 - 9)
We’re still on track for basically offshore winds all weekend as high pressure to the north and a series of fronts to the south bring the W’ly belt across the Southern half of the maritime continent up intp the sub-tropics. A last pulse of S-S/SE swell should hold inconsistent sets through Sat- possibly later in the a’noon which will top out at S exposed breaks in the 2-3ft range- smaller in SEQLD in 1-2ft range at S facing beaches. W’ly winds Sat will have a W/SW to W component at times in response to the next approaching front.
By Sun those winds will be back to straight W’ly tending W/SW then variable later in the a’noon as the front passes into the Tasman. Small leftovers Sun with a few very inconsistent 2ft+ sets at S facing beaches in NENSW but mostly 1-2ft surf on offer with long flat spells between sets. Through the a’noon we may see a modest kick in new S swell across the MNC to Ballina, offering up some 2ft sets at S swell magnets. Not much elsewhere.
Next week (July 10 onwards)
Our fronts passing into the Tasman are now modelled to be much more zonal (W-E), with weaker, truncated fetches S and E of Tasmania. As a result we’re looking at a smaller payload of S swell next week. A fair bit smaller unfortunately.
The good news: we start the week with offshore winds which should ease through the day and tend to light seabreezes as the front rapidly moves away and pressure gradients ease. Not much size on offer though. S swell magnets in NENSW should see 2ft surf, building to 2-3ft during the a’noon but most beaches in SEQLD will be tiny apart from a few reliable S swell magnets hoovering up some 1-2ft sets.
Size holds into Tues with a few small surfable 2-3ft options at S facing beaches in NENSW, smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches as winds tend light SW’ly with the passage of another front through Bass Strait.
This next front and parent low looks stronger but again winds are still zonal and the forward speed of the system means most of the swell generated goes straight up the Tasman Sea pipe towards Fiji.
Winds should remain W’ly through the entire week with lighter a’noon seabreezes possible from mid week.
Fresh S swell pulses associated the passage of front and low should arrive Thurs AM, and linger through the rest of next week. Wave models aren’t really interested in this swell with suggestions of only modest 2-3ft surf at S swell magnets. The strength of the fetch and possibility it could linger as it approaches the South Island does give us grounds for cautious optimism we might see some stronger sets through Thurs or Fri. Winds are likely to track around to the N by later Fri into the weekend.
We’ll see how models look when we come back on Mon.
Of more interest to SEQLD surfers (if it comes off) is a high moving into the Northern Tasman later next week, with a developing trade flow across the near South Pacific and Coral Sea. Most of this fetch is too far north to be useful for swell generating but models do show patches of strong breezes developing SW of New Caledonia and extending further south. Under current modelling that should start to generate some peaky E’ly tradewind swell next weekend, with a N’ly wind bias favouring backbeaches. Nothing major- 2-3ft at best but it should provide a few fun options if it pans out as modelled.
Longer term and massive low system approaching from below the continent now looks to stall in Victorian longitudes and then weaken as it approaches the Tasman. We may see some refracted long period S’ly groundswell from the stalled system early in the week 16/9, otherwise it’s more small S swell into the medium/long term.
Check back Mon for the latest and until then, have a great weekend!
Comments
Bugger
Oh well I guess we can’t shoot the messenger
Thanks steve
Banks are straight as around here with very few options and looks to be more of the same till spring......not going to change with straight south liney swells....lots of sand on the beaches with a deep gutter and straight handers.......
Also a very large white spotted in close north of coffs....was told it was 5-6 m long so buyer beware
Wow!
Sunny Coast forecast: Flat until I go to Bali with the family.
Bali forecast when I land 8ft,6-8ft,10ft,8ft…
Haven’t surfed a wave over 1 foot for a month. Perfect preparation
gee thats a good point, im heading to indo in 4 weeks, barely surfed in ages
Gah. The grom is in indo cleaning up. Sucks to be here rn, feels like a return to typical El Niño winter after a few great years
Getting pretty dire north of the border.
Is this a cyclone in the Solomon’s the access model has modelled in winter?? Obviously not gonna happen but is that what it looks like
Samma Samma here Simba, Straight south swells with very few options, & back to virtually FLAT last couple of daze with a lite Nor/Easter seabreeze coming up yesterday arvo! My youngest Son has just returned from 4 wks in Indo where constant back to back medium swells with lite trades produced GR8 waves on both west & east coasts when he was in Bali for several daze! G-land also producing excellent surf with the latest swell up to 10ft, B4 gradually backing off to a pristine 4 to 6ft++ over the nxt few daze! Bugger!!! Oh well glad he got some on his 1st trip there in 10yrs since he was a 15yrs old frothing grom ! Since returning home he has had 2 surfs in 3ft straight handers @ a local swell magnet in cold water & freezing dawn patrol conditions B4 going to work! Welcome back Son to the reality of El Nino on the Mid Nth Coast!!!
Samma Samma here Simba, Straight south swells with very few options, & back to virtually FLAT last couple of daze with a lite Nor/Easter seabreeze coming up yesterday arvo! My youngest Son has just returned from 4 wks in Indo where constant back to back medium swells with lite trades produced GR8 waves on both west & east coasts when he was in Bali for several daze! G-land also producing excellent surf with the latest swell up to 10ft, B4 gradually backing off to a pristine 4 to 6ft++ over the nxt few daze! Bugger!!! Oh well glad he got some on his 1st trip there in 10yrs since he was a 15yrs old frothing grom ! Since returning home he has had 2 surfs in 3ft straight handers @ a local swell magnet in cold water & freezing dawn patrol conditions B4 going to work! Welcome back Son to the reality of El Nino on the Mid Nth Coast!!!
Managed to find a couple of waist high stuff yesterday at south facing swell magnet beaches for my son and mate... not today... flat, like really really flat.
This winter is shit surfwise
Deffo a weekend for the true S swell magnets.
On an exposed platform Sat morning there were two S swell trains: a 7-8 second signal (assuming refracted in from the W'ly flow off Southern NSW) and long period S-S/SE.
I found waist high peelers without too much drama. S swell magnets were 2-3.
Still some tiny peelers this morning with a definite little bump in size here right before dark, under oil slick conditions as wind dropped out.
Saturday offered straight, bankless 2-3ft sets on the Tweed, clean early but with a late morning northerly spoiling things further. Sunday was tiny but clean.
In shore gutters filled and packed hard, best the sand's looked in years, swell please Huey.