South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by James Casey (issued Friday 11th June)

Outlook (tl;dr)

• Weekend of waves with a 2-3ft E swell continuing into the start of next week
• Late Monday/early Tuesday will see a new S swell around the 2-3ft mark, not all that promising for SE QLD although there’ll be plenty of E swell 
• The swell will shift more S/SE for Wednesday meaning more new swell will get in for SE QLD
• Combo of E swell for region while there could be a local NE windswell for MNC Thursday morning

Recap

Winds have been out of the NW for the most of the past two days with lighter and more offshore winds early this morning. For SE QLD it’s been bumpy with the more protected northern corners the best bet. South of the border the open beaches have seen clean conditions with just southern ends and points getting bumpier conditions. 

Waves were 1-2ft yesterday morning before increasing to 2ft late yesterday and into today.  South of the border waves were 2ft yesterday before increasing to 2-3ft today.

The weekend 

A distant fetch of E winds north of NZ will bring a decent run of E swell sustained in that 2-3ft range throughout the weekend and into the start of next week. 

This E swell is thanks to a ridge of high pressure north of NZ being squeezed by a trough in the Tasman. The trough will continue moving east throughout the weekend squeezing the ridge and providing plenty of E swell into the new week.

Winds will be offshore tomorrow morning and for much of the day for most spots in the forecast region. The Sunshine Coast will be the exception with a light E/NE breeze. 

Sunday will see a similar story, offshore winds early, before a light and variable seabreeze builds in the afternoon. 

The new week

There should be some 3ft sets early next week but it will be a touch more inconsistent with the fetch a bit further away to the north of NZ. This swell will continue until at least Wednesday afternoon but will be a bit on the slow side.  

Winds on Monday will be offshore in the morning before northerly winds build into the afternoon making it a bit bumpy. South of the border winds will be lighter and more variable with the afternoon seabreeze.

A new S swell will arrive late on Monday/early Tuesday for the MNC and N NSW. We’ll see this swell reach 2-3ft south of the border thanks to S winds on the western flank of the low moving away from the coast. SE QLD won’t see much get around the corner until Wednesday. 

Winds on Tuesday will be offshore early before a light and variable seabreeze makes things a little bumpy in the afternoon.  

The swell will shift more out of the S/SE on Wednesday as the low moves further east. Winds will be offshore early but a stronger NE breeze will build into the afternoon as winds feed into an approaching low pressure system.

There looks to be a local NE windswell combining with the remnants of the E swell on Thursday. 

Conditions will depend on the timing but as the low moves offshore winds will turn W and bring cleaner conditions. 

There could also be an E swell filling in thanks to strong E winds out of the Cook Strait. These winds could be from the last of that low that brought us the cold weather yesterday. Models aren’t agreeing on it at the moment so let’s see what it’s looking like after the weekend on Monday.