Return of the springtime northerlies!
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 23rd October)
Best Days: Thurs: brief window of OK winds, and small easing S'ly swell at south swell magnets south of Byron. Sat: outside chance for light winds developing across the Lower Mid North Coast, along with a low quality mix of S/SE and N'ly swells. Late Sun onwards: series of S'ly swells for Northern NSW, prob biggest/best Tues/Wed though local winds look iffy north from Yamba.
Recap: Northern NSW has seen intermittent, pulsey but otherwise decent S’ly swells over the last two days, with sets up to 3ft+ at south swell magnets. Elsewhere it’s been smaller, and SE Qld hasn’t seen much, if any surf from these southerly swells at all. Winds have been light in the mornings with sea breezes in the afternoons.
This week (Oct 24 - 25)
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OK, we’ve got three days of northerlies ahead (potentially four for those of you north of Ballina), with only one window of light winds to capitalise on. And that’s Thursday morning.
The S’ly swell of the last few days has been patchy in coverage, but it’s still humming in Southern NSW today. So far this week, it’s been a useful proxy as a one-day heads up for Northern NSW. But, the trend is actually expected to be down for the short term, so keep your expectations a little lower than the last few days.
South swell magnets may see occasional 2-3ft sets early morning, but it’ll ease to 1-2ft throughout the day. We’ll see a brief window of light NW winds across many regions before the northerlies kick in, so it’ll be a dawn patrol or (likely) nothing.
These northerly winds will probably generate some small windswell for north-facing beaches south of Byron into Friday but no major size or quality is likely.
There is one other swell source that’s also worth detailing, but again, it’ll only favour Northern NSW - and even then it’s a flukey call at best.
The primary storm track that generated our recent run of southerly swells has eased back in the last day or so, but another series of poorly aligned fronts are approaching the southern tip of New Zealand from the south-west. Although the swell they’re generating will be aimed into the eastern Tasman Sea and South Pacific, we’ll see a small spread back into Northern NSW. However, confidence is low on both the timing and size from this swell.
At this stage Friday afternoon is the best chance for seeing minor bump out of the S/SE, up to 2ft+ at south swell magnets south of Byron. Of course, winds will be up from the north at this time so there’ll only be a handful of worthwhile options. It’s an extremely flukey swell source so don’t get too excited about surf prospects from it at most beaches.
This weekend (Oct 26 - 27)
Saturday looks terrible with strengthening N’ly winds.
We’ll see building windswells across exposed spots but it doesn’t look to be noteworthy - maybe some 3ft throughout the day (max size south of Byron), and horribly wind affected. There’s a chance that the Lower Mid North Coast may see an early influence from a trough pushing across Southern NSW (resulting in light winds) but I’ll have a better idea on that in Friday’s update.
Friday’s low confidence flukey S/SE swell should also be in the water on Saturday (if it appears!), though will probably ease into Sunday.
The surface trough will push up into the coast on Sunday, delivering a shallow wind change but without any new southerly swell (as there won’t be any fetch trailing the change). Some NE swell magnets may see small leftover sets from Saturday’s winds but I’d be surprised if there was any more than a lazy 2ft on offer, easing steadily through the day.
Late Sunday afternoon could however see some new S’ly groundswell, but mainly across the Lower Mid North Coast. W/SW gales exiting eastern Bass Strait later Saturday (see below) will generate a fresh S’ly swell that’s expected to build across Southern NSW during the day but I don’t like the timing for Northern NSW - most of it will arrive and peak overnight and then ease from early Monday.
It’ll be very directional and will therefore have a wide range in size across the coast, but south facing beaches (say, south of Coffs) could see a very late push up into the 2-3ft range. Elsewhere it’ll be a lot smaller.
Next week (Oct 28 onwards)
Monday will see the brief S’ly swell from late Sunday (in the south) peak early and then trend down. So, the dawn patrol will be your best chance for occasional 2-3ft sets at south swell magnets south of Byron. Everywhere else will be tiny.
However, there’s more on the way. A series of surface lows will develop in our south swell window over the weekend (see above), all related to Sunday’s S’ly change and the late Su/Mon S’ly swell.
The juciest low pressure system of the lot is a deep polar low that’ll develop south of Tasmania, generating a strong S’ly swell that’ll arrive late Monday (Lower Mid North Coast), holding through Tuesday and Wednesday. It’ll be very directional, and will therefore generate a wide range of wave heights but we should see a peak around 4-5ft at south swell magnets south of Byron.
North of the border, the direction won’t favour much size across most Gold/Sunshine Coast locations but exposed northern ends may see occasional 2-3ft sets if we’re very lucky. Again, it’s not worth worrying too much about in this region: sets will be inconsistent and confidence is low for any noteworthy surf.
A front pushing into the lower Tasman Sea on Monday may generate a small secondary swell for the region, but will also extend a ridge into Northern NSW late Monday and SE Qld on Tuesday, delivering fresh SE winds to most coasts north of Yamba.
Long term suggests a strengthening ridge through the Coral Sea (and thus small trade swell prospects for SE Qld). More on that in Friday’s notes.