South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 29th March)

Best Days: Fri: chance for a brief window in SE Qld early morning with an easing NE swell and an early offshore wind. Points only once strong S'lies push through. Sat: easing S'ly swell and S'ly winds, best suited to SE Qld outer points. Mon thru' Thurs: building trade swell, best suited to SE Qld points. 

Recap: TC Debbie provided only small residual NE swells through Thursday, occasionally reaching 2ft at a handful of exposed beaches but otherwise not generating any meaningful surf across SE Qld. Northern NSW was tiny. Today we’ve seen a continuation of tiny conditions across the coast with freshening N’ly winds. 

This week (Mar 30th - 31st)

Note: Forecaster Notes will be brief this week because Craig’s on leave.

We’ve got a very dynamic period of weather ahead.

In addition to a lot of wind and surf, we’re also going to see very large rain totals across parts of Northern NSW and SE Qld over the next few days. This will affect water quality so be mindful when surfing near any stormwater outlet, creek or river. 

The remains of TC Debbie are tracking southwards, and will merge with a northwards advancing southerly change that’s due to push across Northern NSW overnight Thursday and into Friday morning. 

Whilst Thursday will probably start out with small, northerly affected conditions across most regions, these winds will strengthen during the day and by close of business we could see some impressive surf heights across NE facing beaches, mainly around SE Qld and the Far North of Northern NSW. 

Maximum wind strength is expected immediately off the SE Qld coast overnight Thursday with 40-50kts (!) aimed point blank into the Gold Coast around midnight. At this stage I'm expecting stormy 4-5ft sets at NE facing beaches late afternoon and early evening, though it’s unlikely that there’ll be any locations offering shelter from the gale force NE flow. Surf size will be smaller surf out of Byron but of similar dubious quality.

A low pressure system will then develop east of Coolangatta in the early hours of Friday morning. Storm force S’ly winds will cross the border around dawn, however we should see an early period of fresh W/SW winds across the Sunshine Coast and possibly - if we’re lucky - the Gold Coast - if only for an hour or so. Everywhere south of about the Tweed Coast is likely to be under the influence of gusty S’ly winds by the time the sun rises though.

This presents a possible window of opportunity for Qld surfers. The NE swell expected to build later Thursday will peak overnight, but due to the close proximity of the swell source to the mainland, and the fetch’s rapid transition out of our swell window, surf height will steadily drop from about midnight onwards. 

So, how much NE swell will be left at dawn? I’m willing to bank on 3-4ft sets across the Sunshine Coast at first light and 3-5ft across the Gold and Tweed Coasts (overnight could see easy 6-8ft sets - I can’t wait to assess the buoy data!) but it’ll be trending downwards by the minute so could be half the size by mid-morning. And by then we’ll be under the influence of gale force southerly winds. 

So, there’s a chance for a brief beach break session at dawn in SE Qld. After that, we’ll only be able to surf the points under the southerly flow however the sheer strength of the wind will override the directional and proximity deficiencies, and should kick up surf size to 3-4ft+ along the outer SE Qld points by Friday afternoon. Expect much smaller surf at protected points.

Friday will be much bigger south of the border, being a combination of small to moderate (and easing) N/NE swell plus a large short range S’ly swell. However it’s hard to imagine many places will cope with the likely strength of the southerly breeze. 

This weekend (Apr 1 - 2)

The Tasman Low is expected to slowly weaken over the weekend and retreat E/SE into the Central/Southern Tasman Sea. 

This will cause surf size to slowly abate from the south, though Northern NSW will retain large wave heights for the first half of the weekend - 6ft+ early Saturday morning (south facing beaches), down to 3-4ft on Sunday. Winds will remain out of the southern quadrant; there’s a chance for an early SW breeze in the mornings, but in general you’re going to have to seek protection from the wind. Protected locations will be smaller. 

This southerly flow will favour the SE Qld outer points but as the fetch weakens, so too will the swell period and this will cause wave heights to ease in size - exacerbated by the straight S'ly swell direction. Early Saturday morning should see inconsistent 3ft sets at the outer points, easing to 2-3ft by the afternoon and further to 1-2ft throughout Sunday. South facing beaches will see larger surf (easing from 3-5ft to 2-3ft+ over the course of the weekend) - however these locations will be wind affected. 

Next week (Apr 3 onwards)

We’ve got a stack of surf on the cards for next week. 

First up - Sunday’s S’ly swell for the Tasman Low will continue to ease into Monday.

However, exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW will pick up a very long period (18-20 second) S’ly groundswell originating from a sneaky polar off the Ice Shelf south of SA today and tomorrow (generating very large surf for Victoria late Saturday and into Sunday). South swell magnets south of Byron Bay may see occasional 3-4ft sets from this source though there will be extremely long breaks between waves. 

There’ll also be some short range S’ly swell across Northern NSW from a weak front entering the southern Tasman Sea on Sunday.

But the most prominent source will be a strengthening ridge through the Northern Tasman Sea and Coral Sea from Sunday onwards. This will drive strong SE winds through our immediate swell window and will kick up a solid trade swell across SE Qld and Far Northern NSW throughout Monday, reaching a peak later Tuesday and into Wednesday. Outer SE Qld points should see a peak around 3-5ft from this source, with smaller waves at protected points. Exposed northern ends will have wind affected 5-6ft surf. But there'll be waves on the points for many days, with only a slow easing expected into Thursday.

Smaller surf is expected south of Byron however there’ll be plenty of surf all week - it’s just the persistent SE breeze you’ll have to work around as this trade flow anchors itself in place. 

Some models are suggesting a surface low will form at the tail end of the fetch, close to NSW, early-mid next week which could set up a stronger E/SE groundswell for the latter part of next week - but this is still quite some time away. 

See you Friday!