South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 9th September)

Best Days: Sun: peaky, improving combo of swells with workable winds. Mon: smaller surf but light winds.  

Recap: Thursday afternoon’s new south swell provided some decent sets across south facing beaches in Northern NSW, and a building trade swell increased across remaining coasts, with wave heights becoming slightly larger into today. However, freshening easterly tending north-east winds have created a lot of problems across the region.

This weekend (Saturday 10th - Sunday 11th)

Saturday looks terrible.

In Wednesday’s notes there was some hope that a change would track across the Southern NSW coast overnight tonight, extending a weak change into the Lower Mid North Coast during Saturday. But this has now been delayed so we’re looking at fresh northerlies right across the board for the entire day. 

We may see a late reprieve from these winds south of Port Macquarie in the middle of the afternoon but I wouldn't get your hopes up. These winds are only workable at a handful of spots across Northern NSW and SE Qld, and there’ll be a lot of windswell contamination in the lineup.

As for surf, today’s trade swell is expected to reach a peak overnight and then slowly ease through the weekend. 3-5ft sets are still likely across exposed Sunshine Coast beaches on Saturday, with 3-4ft surf across the Gold and Tweed Coasts and then smaller waves as you track south of Byron.

However, as you head south from Byron we’ll also see a secondary NE swell (with wave heights bigger with increasing southerly latitude). So the Lower Mid North Coast could easily see a combined surf in the 3-5ft range at NE facing beaches, though conditions won’t be particularly attractive.

Sunday looks much better for most locations. All of our swell sources will ease in size, and a weak change will move up the coast, swinging winds to the north-west overnight Saturday and then to the south during Sunday morning (Mid North Coast) before arriving across the Queensland border around lunchtime. It won’t be enough to iron out the bumps completely but we should see a steady improvement on the surface.

We can anticipate 3-4ft surf at most open beaches in the early morning with a steady easing trend towards 2-3ft throughout the day. Just don’t expect any major quality. 

It's also worth noting that the Lower Mid North Coast may see a small, late afternoon flush of south swell from a front exiting eastern Bass Strait on Saturday. No major size is expected but swell magnets may pick up a few stray 2-3ft sets towards dark.

Next week (Monday 12th onwards)

Weakened trades over the weekend and early next week means our easterly swell wind will remain ineffective for the remainder of the forecast period. So, we have to look to the south for new swell sources. And Queensland surfers will be heading towards another extended period of small surf (so make the most of Sunday and Monday!). 

Monday and Tuesday will see a continuation of easing swell from Sunday. Early 2ft+ sets are possible at open beaches but expect smaller surf by the afternoon. Light variable winds are due Monday before a northerly trend kicks in on Tuesday.

The Southern Ocean frontal passage for the forecast period has been stalled a little, but we’re still looking at plenty of small but long period S’ly energy for the second half of the week. The leading edge of the first swell should push through Northern NSW on Wednesday, with Thursday and Friday maintaining small levels of energy with several follow up swells. Very intermittent 2-3ft sets are likely from this source at south facing beaches, but we won’t see much action elsewhere.

Otherwise, a weak troughy pattern off the Far South Coast around Monday is expected to consolidate into a tight closed low during Tuesday, however it probably won’t be until Wednesday until it aligns within our south swell window. 

The close proximity of this system to our coastline means it’s hard to have confidence in the size and timing, and I’m a bit worried that it’ll form too close to the coast, with a very narrow fetch - meaning most of the swell producing winds could be located inside the Hunter curve. This could result in very small outcome even for Northern NSW south swell magnets.

Either way, later Wednesday thru’ Thursday is where we’re on track for some south swell across Northern NSW. At the moment I think Southern NSW will pick up the bulk size, and reliable south swell magnets in Northern NSW will probably be limited to 3-4ft sets tops (and not much elsewhere). 

As this low tracks out into the Tasman Sea it’s possible we’ll see a return SE swell from its southern flank (around Thurs/Fri) but this is still a very long time away. And that’s about the best we have into the long term right now.

Have a great weekend, see you on Monday!