Southerly change ahoy!

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 5th December)

Best Days: No great days due to the northerly winds. Decent southerly change expected Thursday. 

Recap: Small surf and northerlies. The Gold Coast buoys picked up a slight increase in swell period this afternoon (1 second) and a small increase in size (although, local N/NE winds concurrently increased, so there’s likely to be a percentage of windswell in the mix too). This is probably the early arrival of the weekend’s east swell.

This weekend (Dec 6th-7th)

No change to the weekend forecast - northerlies will generally ruin the surf at most locations.

There is a reasonable chance that venues north of Byron could see an early N/NW trend in the wind direction early mornings, and this may open up a few beach breaks - but will probably last just a short while and otherwise we’re looking at fresh northerly winds in all areas. So you'll need a very well sheltered spot to extract anything of value.

As for surf, we’ve got a couple of sources expected in the water and it seems our surf forecast model is exaggerating wave heights (on Sunday) by combining them all together. 

The most dominant swell train will be a mid range east swell whipped up by a modest ridge south of New Caledonia over the last few days, and should be worthy of 3ft sets for much of the weekend.

Otherwise, there’s a less impressive NE and N’ly windswell component from closer sources that’ll contribute low quality energy to the mix. 

It is worth pointing out that the strongest local N'ly winds will be in the south, and these locations (i.e. Pt Mac, Forster etc) should see bigger waves at NE facing beaches through Sunday as the NE windswell component becomes the dominant force. But, those locations picking up the size will be wind affected. 

So definitely not a great weekend to get the summer froth-o-meter started by any stretch.

Long term (Dec 8th onwards)

This persistent, complex troughy pattern is set to continue through the first half of next week. In fact the northerlies should start to ease in in the south during Tuesday, and then across remaining regions on Wednesday to become light and variable, ahead of a gusty southerly change due Thursdsay (see chart below).

Wave heights will start to fall away from the weekend during Monday but in any case the persistent northerly pattern will maintain the status quo on the surface.

Unfortunately, by the time we see regionally light winds (around Wednesday) we’ll be back to small residual energy at most locations.

There are a lot of complex possibilities through the middle of next week - Thursday's southerly change could very well end up being part of a Tasman Low - but with model guidance still all over the shop it’s difficult to pin down anything specific. 

That being said, I’m now very confident that pattern will change markedly in and around Thursday and that we’ll see some good surf mid-late next week originating from nearby sources (i.e. the Tasman Sea, rather than the Southern Ocean or the South Pacific) - by this I mean reasonable sized waves across semi-exposed points of Northern NSW and SE Qld with winds out of the southern quadrant for at least a few days.

Let’s take a closer look on Monday and estimate which days are best for flexitime.

Comments

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Saturday, 6 Dec 2014 at 10:20am

So, just got home from a 2foot Tassie slop session......

Anyway, checked qld cams (here and elsewhere), checked BOM winds, surf reports, and wave buoys..... All wave buoys at well over 2m, around 9sec'...... Ballina nnw at 6k at 10am, Evans head 5knnw, The strongest nnw was M'dore at 13k.....
Some surf cams looked rather nice........ Now sunrise is before 5am eadst.... A 5 hour sesh, 3 foot, light nnw, (wnw earlier)...... mehhhh.....

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 6 Dec 2014 at 10:32am

Just a quick point - when you're referencing buoy data, go by Hsig not Hmax (so, wave heights are around 1.25m).

But yeah, looked like an OK morning on the beachies north of Byron (winds are straight N'ly south of Byron).

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Saturday, 6 Dec 2014 at 11:14am

I reffed' hsig yesterday, Ben...... Whether hsig or hmax, my point is "consistency in size" across the board...... Bottomline - 3 foot.... glassy.... Nice......

Note. From first light this morning, BOM had some regions south of Byron as predominantly calm to nnw... Shelly looked nice..... I'd say a backbeach below here would've been fun....
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDN60701/IDN60701.94598.shtml

And a ferryman would've been good too...

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Saturday, 6 Dec 2014 at 11:20am

Doggie it's onshore we'll and truly mate around here. Crowded 2ft Tallows with the odd bigger one. It's surfable but nothing to get wood over.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Saturday, 6 Dec 2014 at 11:36am

Well it would be now..... Looked at Shellys when I got back from shite cove down here....... It looked nice FR.... Even spotted a few decent rides..... The first ferry this morning, Fr..... It aint that far from your place... ;)

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 6 Dec 2014 at 11:36am

"All wave buoys at well over 2m". Hmax is well over 2m. Hsig is 1.25m-ish.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Saturday, 6 Dec 2014 at 11:38am

Which equates to 3 foot........ Across the board..... 6 .... 1/2 a dozen......

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 6 Dec 2014 at 11:41am

I'm not talking about that. Just a general recommendation - when you're referencing wave buoy data, Hsig and Tsig have a much closer relationship with surf size than Hmax and Tmax.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Saturday, 6 Dec 2014 at 11:45am

I apologise.... I don't know what came over me..... ;)

goldy123's picture
goldy123's picture
goldy123 Saturday, 6 Dec 2014 at 12:27pm

Fun waves on the GC this morning, pretty lumpy but wind stayed light rainy glass offs. Bit more size and light winds tomorrow would be nice.

wellymon's picture
wellymon's picture
wellymon Saturday, 6 Dec 2014 at 12:52pm

Secound that goldy123
Couple of head high peaks running off, 1st surf in 6 weeks, too much work and not enough play.

mk1's picture
mk1's picture
mk1 Saturday, 6 Dec 2014 at 1:31pm

Managed to get a couple of turns in. Counted myself lucky with that as it was pretty lumpy where I was, but here's to tomorrow morning and a little more west in the winds....

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Saturday, 6 Dec 2014 at 1:58pm

SD. No need for cryptics please. Stick to surf and wind talk only mate.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Saturday, 6 Dec 2014 at 5:54pm

Well, at least it was cryptic... Unlike tallows..... ;)..... Seeings you said please, I'll take it on board champ..... btw, a certain swellnet cam which is obvious to all is showing an afternoon glass off. ...... I wont say what state.... But wow......

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Sunday, 7 Dec 2014 at 8:40am

Wow.. Got to sleep in till 5.30am......
Anyway, 3 to 4 foot, aye?..... Glassy.... Some cams look good...... Even some waves on the points for the early birds..... Who would've thought........

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Sunday, 7 Dec 2014 at 10:42am

3-4ft and clean where I was. Still blowin offshore. Got some super fun lefts.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Sunday, 7 Dec 2014 at 2:52pm

Well, Don.... there you go.... It's like shelling peas..... ;) You'd have to say that from sunny coast to Yamba, it was pretty "good" surf yesterday and this morning...

Today -
Sunny coast - 6/10 - "Looking real fun this morning, the only issue is the high tide. Good 3ft waves across most beaches with the odd 4ft set and with a light offshore."

Goldy - 7/10 -"Finally some waves this mornng without being bashed by onshores from early. The swell has been the best options for what seems a long long time this morning."

Ballina - 5/10 - "The winds are staying light, but they're swinging between NNW and NNE, they're holding from the NNW at the moment. You can sill luck into some 3-4ft waves with reasonable quality, the northern corners are still your best bet"

Yamba - 6/10 - "The surf is up we've finally got 3 to 4 foot waves and pretty clean conditions. The best of it is northern corners with this morning high tide. Enjoy whilst it's here"

Free ride..... That's game, set, match..... ;) And Caml, Your meditation worked..... OOmmmmmmmm....... :p

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 7 Dec 2014 at 3:00pm

Doggie I surfed twice today. 'twas a lumpy 2-3ft at Tallows with the odd inconsistent bigger set. Strong side shore by ten am. 5/10 iOS a generous but fair call. That's average. Just a pass mark. Nothing on the points with the morning full moon tide.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Sunday, 7 Dec 2014 at 3:18pm

I got reports from just near your local Steve of a fair bit bigger than that today. 4ft. Albeit inconsistent.

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Sunday, 7 Dec 2014 at 4:35pm

Firstly, Don..... Is it only me that gets in trouble for naming breaks? ;)

Now... FR..... I saw the cams.... I read the reports.. I checked BOM wind obs'.... All in all, pretty good surf..... The 4 reports above have an average score of 6/10.... Tallows isn't the only break between Brunswick and the ferryman to handle a 6k nnw....
But you chose to surf Tallows, not once, but twice, which I also find interesting.... If it's crap, I personally don't go back for seconds...... But what I'd like to know is;;;; The jewy you caught in between sessions.... Is it big enough for the webber bbq? ;)

And, Ben...... 3 to 4 foot..... Not 2 to 3 foot....... Wasn't that bad a weekend surfwise, was it?

Now, onto southwalds thursday low ;) Southey!!!!!!! What's the call!!!!!! 5 foot se swell?.... Wind affected???? ;)

ps - had a fathanded inconsistent 3 foot left point to myself for brunch.... Only the larger set waves broke.... 1 every 4 to 5 minutes or so...... dodge kelp monsters and flick out before eating rock....... Wife sat in the car.... Caught 4 waves and came home...... Only idiot in the water.......

Another beautiful Tassie summer day...... The dawgs burial ground in all its fat inconsistent glory...... At least it's an easy paddle out......:/

tobym's picture
tobym's picture
tobym Sunday, 7 Dec 2014 at 6:35pm

Not that You need any encouragement,but good call Sheeepdog.Great waves and conditions at times on the Sunny Coast.i reckon that next system may be a harder call,No steady trade flow,more dependent on the formation or not of an ECL or just a dip plenty moisture out there loooks good!

tobym's picture
tobym's picture
tobym Sunday, 7 Dec 2014 at 6:39pm

I should amend that to a formation of a low not ECL

Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog's picture
Sheepdog Sunday, 7 Dec 2014 at 7:02pm

You're right, toby.... pacific fetch swells are one of the easiest swells to get right... This next potential swell has a bit more intrigue to it... The potential swell from the low Southey was referring to is quite dependent on the high west of Tassie ridging up the nsw coast, and forming a decent fetch.... Point surf potential... Beachies blown out....

roubydouby's picture
roubydouby's picture
roubydouby Sunday, 7 Dec 2014 at 9:05pm

Real fun pulse in the swell at Coffs at around 6 pm this evening.
One of those sessions where it goes from 1-2 ft and inco to 3 ft and cooking.

Did not expect that, but very glad it happened.

alsurf's picture
alsurf's picture
alsurf Monday, 8 Dec 2014 at 6:16am

had a good surf yesterday on the tweed coast. Consistent 3-4ft waves and wind was ideal by lunchtime .