Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 12th November)

This week through next week (Dec 13 - 22)

After a fun week of waves last week, the swell died off into the weekend, though a new, inconsistent SW groundswell should have kicked later Sunday, peaking Monday.

This swell is now easing across the region and we'll see it continue to drop ahead of a small, mid-period SW swell through Thursday and Friday.

This swell was generated by a healthy but weak fetch of below gale-force W/SW fetch moving through the south-western Indian Ocean.

We should see it building Thursday ahead of a peak Friday morning, easing thereafter.

Following this there's nothing major due surf wise ahead of a moderate sized S/SW groundswell later next week.

The source will be a strong, polar low forming around the Heard Island region on Thursday, projecting a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds through our southern swell window.

It'll impact eastern Indonesia with the most size, building next Wednesday and peaking Thursday morning to the 6ft range on the sets, easing slowly thereafter. Expect less size ot the west and not much in the Maldives.

Wind wise, we're finally looking at monsoon westerlies kicking in from Wednesday/Thursday this week, though remaining a little flukey, embedding themselves more properly from Thursday next week.

Looking at the Maldives and the source of reliable south-east trade-swell looks to remain minimal, with background energy to 2ft max due this period.

Some better mid-period S'ly swell is due across the southern atolls today, peaking tomorrow before easing into the end of the week.

No major surf is then due until a long-period, inconsistent S/SW groundswell arrives Sunday, peking Monday.

The source was a strong but distant low that developed south-west of South Africa, and is now weakening.
It'll be inconsistent but strong 4ft sets are due on the southern atolls at its peak easing slowly through next week.

Eastern Indonesia:

Inconsistent, easing SW groundswell today and tomorrow.

Smaller, inconsistent mid-period SW swell building Thursday to 4ft across the magnets, peaking Friday morning to 4ft+, easing into the weekend.

Moderate sized S/SW groundswell building next Thursday, peaking Friday morning to 6ft on the sets across exposed breaks.

Light, variable winds most of the period, tending SW later week and then stronger W/SW-SW mid-late next week.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Easing SW groundswell today and tomorrow.

Small-moderate sized reinforcing SW swell for Thursday to 4-5ft, easing Friday and into the weekend.

Moderate sized S groundswell for next Thursday to 4-5ft+, easing thereafter.

Variable NW winds across northern and central locations, SE to the south, becoming variable in the north next week, holding from the S/SE-SE to the south.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Maldives:

Moderate sized + pulse of mid-period S'ly swell building today, peaking tomorrow to 4-5ft across the southern atolls. Slightly smaller Male.

Easing swell into the end of the week.

Inconsistent, moderate sized S/SW groundswell building Sunday, peaking Monday to 4ft, easing slowly for the rest of next week.

Freshening E winds across central and northern locations tomorrow and Thursday, variable to the south, weaker Friday to the north.

NE winds through Saturday and Sunday, tending variable next week.