Indonesia/Maldives forecast October 26th

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Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 26th October)

This week through next week (Oct 27 – Nov 3)

A small lift in background swell was seen yesterday afternoon and today a secondary pulse of background swell is filling in, with it due to peak overnight and ease tomorrow. It should be just a touch bigger than the pulse seen yesterday.

Following this a funky mid-period S'ly swell for the weekend is still on track, generated by a strengthening fetch of S/SE winds off the Western Australian coast over the coming days.

It looks small-moderate in size, building later Saturday but more so Sunday before easing slowly into next week.

This will be backed up by a small-moderate mid-period SW swell into Monday afternoon, generated by weak frontal activity to the west-southwest of Western Australia the last couple of days.

Besides another small-moderate pulse of S/SW groundswell later next week, from a late forming polar frontal progression, south-west of Western Australia, there's not much to work with at all into the start of November. The Mentawai region looks even slower though the mid-period S'ly swell will show more size there.

The Maldives is seeing building levels of SE trade-swell thanks to the re-establishment of E/SE-SE trades throughout the Indian Ocean, with it being in the small-moderate size range, but a little more energy and period is expected to arrive through the weekend (Sunday) and peak Monday, easing a touch thereafter. The swell from the trades off Western Australia is due to arrive mid-late week, providing a less consistent boost in energy.

Other than that the S'ly swell sources look to dry up.

Eastern Indonesia:

Small-moderate sized, inconsistent mid-period S/SW swell building today, reaching 4ft across exposed breaks, easing Friday.

Small-moderate sized mid-period S'ly swell for late Saturday, peaking Sunday to 4ft, easing slowly next week.

Small to moderate sized S/SW swell building Monday reaching 3-5ft across the magnets into the late afternoon, easing Tuesday from a similar size.

Moderate sized S/SW groundswell for Thursday next week to 4-5ft+.

Variable winds tending light offshore each morning with S-S/SW afternoon winds tomorrow and S/SE Saturday/Sunday/Monday. A return to fresher E/SE-SE trades from Tuesday.

Uluwatu 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs

Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:

Little kick in mid-period S/SW swell late today and Friday to 3ft+.

Moderate sized S-S/SE swell building Sunday, peaking Monday to 4-5ft with a smaller, background mid-period S/SW swell in the mix.

Small sized S/SW groundswell for later Wednesday and Thursday next week to 3ft+.

Strengthening S/SE-SE trades from this afternoon and tomorrow across southern locations, weaker to the north, persisting next week.

Mentawai 16-day Forecast Graph/WAMs


Small-moderate sized SE trade-swell to 3-4ft, strengthening into Sunday and peaking Monday to 4-5ft across the southern atolls (smaller Male).

Slight drop in trade-swell into Tuesday/Wednesday ahead of a less consistent but good kick back to 4-5ft Thursday/Friday.

Persistent mod-fresh E/SE-E winds across central and southern locations, lighter at times to the north.


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Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 26 Oct 2023 at 12:55pm

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