Indonesia/Maldives forecast October 26th
Indian Ocean Basin analysis by Craig Brokensha (issued Thursday 26th October)
This week through next week (Oct 27 – Nov 3)
A small lift in background swell was seen yesterday afternoon and today a secondary pulse of background swell is filling in, with it due to peak overnight and ease tomorrow. It should be just a touch bigger than the pulse seen yesterday.
Following this a funky mid-period S'ly swell for the weekend is still on track, generated by a strengthening fetch of S/SE winds off the Western Australian coast over the coming days.
It looks small-moderate in size, building later Saturday but more so Sunday before easing slowly into next week.
This will be backed up by a small-moderate mid-period SW swell into Monday afternoon, generated by weak frontal activity to the west-southwest of Western Australia the last couple of days.
Besides another small-moderate pulse of S/SW groundswell later next week, from a late forming polar frontal progression, south-west of Western Australia, there's not much to work with at all into the start of November. The Mentawai region looks even slower though the mid-period S'ly swell will show more size there.
The Maldives is seeing building levels of SE trade-swell thanks to the re-establishment of E/SE-SE trades throughout the Indian Ocean, with it being in the small-moderate size range, but a little more energy and period is expected to arrive through the weekend (Sunday) and peak Monday, easing a touch thereafter. The swell from the trades off Western Australia is due to arrive mid-late week, providing a less consistent boost in energy.
Other than that the S'ly swell sources look to dry up.
Small-moderate sized, inconsistent mid-period S/SW swell building today, reaching 4ft across exposed breaks, easing Friday.
Small-moderate sized mid-period S'ly swell for late Saturday, peaking Sunday to 4ft, easing slowly next week.
Small to moderate sized S/SW swell building Monday reaching 3-5ft across the magnets into the late afternoon, easing Tuesday from a similar size.
Moderate sized S/SW groundswell for Thursday next week to 4-5ft+.
Variable winds tending light offshore each morning with S-S/SW afternoon winds tomorrow and S/SE Saturday/Sunday/Monday. A return to fresher E/SE-SE trades from Tuesday.
Western Indonesia/Mentawais/South Sumatra:
Little kick in mid-period S/SW swell late today and Friday to 3ft+.
Moderate sized S-S/SE swell building Sunday, peaking Monday to 4-5ft with a smaller, background mid-period S/SW swell in the mix.
Small sized S/SW groundswell for later Wednesday and Thursday next week to 3ft+.
Strengthening S/SE-SE trades from this afternoon and tomorrow across southern locations, weaker to the north, persisting next week.
Small-moderate sized SE trade-swell to 3-4ft, strengthening into Sunday and peaking Monday to 4-5ft across the southern atolls (smaller Male).
Slight drop in trade-swell into Tuesday/Wednesday ahead of a less consistent but good kick back to 4-5ft Thursday/Friday.
Persistent mod-fresh E/SE-E winds across central and southern locations, lighter at times to the north.