Large swells for Hawaii but with varying winds, with a strong NE trade-swell for Micronesia and PNG

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Hawaii North Shore, Micronesia and PNG forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued on Tuesday 6th February)

Best Days: Hawaii Tuesday morning, and later Tuesday next week onwards - Micronesia from Wednesday next week, PNG most of the period

This week and next (Feb 7 - 16)

Hawaii: Pumping waves for the Volcom Pipe Pro with a large clean W/NW groundswell that is now easing across the North Shore with morning offshores, which will give into weak sea breezes this afternoon.

The surf should continue to ease over the coming days, down from the 6ft range at magnets tomorrow morning, smaller Wednesday. Similar winds are expected tomorrow, with variable tending NW winds into Wednesday, strengthen from the N/NW Thursday and Friday.

This will be linked to a a front shedding of a strong low that's currently forming east of Japan pushing down into the islands while weakening.

This low will generate a fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds through our north-western swell window over the coming days, producing a large NW groundswell that's expected to fill in Friday and peak into the afternoon.

On Thursday with the strong N/NW winds some poor N/NW windswell will build, while Friday should see large sets to 10ft+, mixed in with a slightly smaller N/NW windswell.

Those gusty N/NW winds will create poor conditions though.

A quick drop in size is due Saturday from the 6ft range with slightly better but still average N/NE winds.

Smaller surf is due into Sunday as N/NE winds persist but only moderate to fresh in strength.

Into next week we've got a good XL groundswell on the cards, produced by a very strong low that's forecast to fire up directly north-west of us on the weekend.

Firstly a weak fetch of strong to gale-force W/NW winds are due to produce a small increase in NW swell through Monday, while the low will produce an additional fetch of severe-gale to storm-force NW winds right through our north-western swell window before retracting north and more into our northern swell window, maintaining strength.

This should produce a consistent XL NW groundswell for Tuesday to the 12ft range, easing slowly Wednesday from 10ft+ while tending more N/NW in diection.

Winds are looking a little funky with morning N/NW winds Tuesday swinging E through the day, creating improving conditions, with light offshore winds Wednesday morning ahead of weak E'ly afternoon trades.

From here the swell will fade under strengthening E/SE trades with more distant groundswell energy on the cards for the following week.

North Shore Forecast Graph
North Shore WAMs

Micronesia: A N/NE groundswell seen through yesterday is now on the ease and unfortunately for the whole period there's no new significant N'ly swells on the cards. This is due to the activity pushing towards Hawaii being too far north and east of our swell windows.

Small to moderate levels of E/NE trade-swell are due through the rest of the week, easing into the weekend, but moving into next week, we'll see a significant E/NE trade-flow developing to our north-east.

An elongated and strong fetch of strong to at times gale-force E/NE-NE winds will produce large levels of E/NE tending NE trade-swell that should get into protected spots out of the gusty E/NE trades.

We're likely to see sets to 4-5ft through the middle of next week, easing back later in the week as the trade-flow slowly weakens.

Palikir Pass Forecast Graph
Palikir Pass WAMs

Papua New Guinea: Some fun but inconsistent N/NE groundswell should be breaking across exposed spots today, reaching 3ft today and possibly a touch bigger tomorrow, persisting through the end of the week before fading from Saturday.

Lighter W/NW winds are expected, variable each morning and more NW into the afternoons.

Moving into next week the strong trade-swell building across Micronesia should filter down to us mid-next week, providing good sized surf to 4-5ft from later Wednesday through the end of the week, tailing off slowly from the following weekend. Winds look generally good as well and from the west.

Kavieng Forecast Graph
Kavieng WAMs


goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 8 Feb 2018 at 8:12am

Stu, how you going over there?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 8 Feb 2018 at 1:22pm

This just in Goofy..

Said he's having an absolute ball though.

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Friday, 9 Feb 2018 at 1:26pm

Gary's happy that you've finally had the confidence to post a good shot of your Rig, Stu.

In the past it's been really hard to tell what sort of shape you're in as Gary usually only views you through binoculars.

Larry Lee's picture
Larry Lee's picture
Larry Lee Friday, 9 Feb 2018 at 11:51am

I'm pretty sure thats a Scope and not binoculars Gary . I've told you that you have to take heed of AVO orders . All this GUN talk from crg and Garys' gone and got himself all confused .
Might pay to hang low for a while Stu, no more busting down the door for you . ( you were kidding yourself with that ice pick though )!? crg what sort of "sledge" hammer would you advise young Stuart on . Other than the obvious Verbal encouragement you let go with .

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Friday, 9 Feb 2018 at 3:36pm

Also, Stu, Gary's highly toned eye muscles can detect that your board above seems to have a weak point.

Gary would suggest that this board has no place calling itself 'Elite' next to any of the players who featured in this week's superbowl and would prescribe an urgent training program consisting of consumption of multiple egg yolks and continual 1-Legged-squats.

If this board, and presumably many of your others, are not able to implement this rigorous training program immediately; Gary is concerned that they will become unbalanced and possibly even *gasp*


goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 8 Feb 2018 at 3:27pm

Noooooo! The new 10 channel. Farrrrk

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Thursday, 8 Feb 2018 at 5:48pm

Shouldn't have taken a knife to the gunfight!

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Friday, 9 Feb 2018 at 11:50am

At least it died doing what it loved.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Friday, 9 Feb 2018 at 6:28pm

All I know is that this site is dry and insipid without Stunet .

Let’s hear some adventure or I’ll be forced to live my own.