XL swell due mid-week, possibly last of the season

Guy Dixon picture
Guy Dixon (Guy Dixon)

Hawaii North Shore forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Saturday 26th March)

Best Days: Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday - winds permitting.

This weekend (Saturday 26th - Sunday 27th):

The run of small swell looks to continue with only background energy filling in. We can expect to see a small pulse on Sunday afternoon, but likely not seeing much more than around 4ft under a light southeasterly airflow, increasing in the days following.

Next week (Monday 28th):

Next week holds much more promising prospects of swell, with a large low pressure system developing to the southeast of the Kamchatka Peninsula. From Saturday, a broad northwesterly fetch with core winds up to 50kts will become established, moving  towards the North Shore in a captured motion while easing.

The long period forerunners of the resultant swell are due to fill in across the North Shore on Tuesday afternoon providing options in the 12-15ft range by dark. However, the size is due to peak on Wednesday morning with sets in the 18-20ft range.

Models are having a hard time agreeing on the outlook for winds on during this swell event, however in either scenario, conditions are looking dicey.

Best case scenario we can expect to see light winds prevailing from the west early on Tuesday, increasing slightly and tending west/northwesterly at times during the afternoon. Under this scenario, Wednesday would see a similar setup with marginally more favourable west/southwesterly breezes early.

Another trustworthy model however suggests that breezes will be blowing due northerly during Wednesday morning which would heavily reduce options.

It’ll take a few model runs to firm up before we can make a call.

Following this swell, which could well be the last decent swell of the season, options are likely to fade from the 10-15ft range on Thursday, further on Friday.