Plenty of strong S swell this weekend with a lovely NE windswell next week

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Eastern Tasmania Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri February 9)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Moderate + sized S'ly groundswell filling in Sat, peaking into the PM, easing Sun
  • Gusty S/SW tending S/SE-SE winds Sat, NW tending N/NE Sun
  • N/NE windswell for Mon, stronger Tue with strong N/NE winds
  • Easing N/NE windswell Wed with W winds, tending SW then SE in the a’noon
  • Tiny surf Thurs/Fri
  • Fun E/NE swells filtering down from tradewinds next weekend


Nice S/SE groundswell yesterday saw sets to 3ft+ with N’ly winds, with a few 3ft sets this morning, now easing with early NW winds tending SE-E/SE before a S/SW tending S’ly change as a strong front passed under the state.

This weekend and next week (Feb 10 - 16)

We’ve got a very strong high pressure belt at the moment with a cell in the Tasman (twin cells actually, straddling New Zealand) and monster high moving in from the Bight. A trough off the NSW coast is focussing SE winds along the Eastern Seaboard, with a strong front/low traversing the Lower Tasman underneath Tasmania. 

No great change to the weekend f/cast with S’ly groundswell from a deep low under the state today arriving in the morning peaking into the afternoon. South magnets should build to 4-6ft but with average, S/SW tending SE-E/NE winds, cleaner Sunday and out of the NW with easing sets from 4ft+. Winds will tend N/NE and freshen in the a’noon Sun as high pressure moves E of Tasmania.

Those N’lies will see some NE windswell in the water for Mon, in the 2ft range. Winds look tricky with a small trough likely to disrupt the N’ly flow through the morning and potentially bring offshore W-W/SW winds before they tend NW-N in the a’noon.

The NE fetch rebuilds through Tues (see below) bringing building NE swells from 2-3ft to 4ft during the a’noon under mod/fresh N’ly winds.

We should see most of the size hang in for Wed morning (3-4ft) with lovely offshore winds as a front passes south of the state before surf eases quickly in the a’noon and winds shift onshore SE.

Further ahead and we’ll see easing swells with a couple of small/tiny days expected Thurs/Fri.

Semi-stationary tradewinds in the Northern Tasman then supply some small, workable E/NE swells to 2ft into next weekend with light/mod NE winds expected.

Let’s check it with fresh eyes on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!