Peak in NE windswell over the weekend before a stiff S'ly change

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Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed Jan 11th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small leftovers Thurs with NE winds developing
  • NE windswell building Fri PM, peaking Sat, easing Sun with winds switching W-SW before an early S’ly change
  • Spike in S swell Sun PM, eases Mon
  • NE windswell Tues PM
  • New spike in S swell likely Wed as front pushes through, easing Thurs


Swell from the E has continued to supply some fun waves with yesterday seeing leftover 2ft surf with light winds early before tending SSE. Today has seen a nice little kick in size from the E with some 2-3ft sets, clean early before winds freshened from the E/NE-NE.

This week and next week (Jan11 - Jan19)

An insipid Summer blocking pattern is now setting up as a weak high (1019 hPa) moves East of Tasmania and becomes semi-stationary in the Central/Lower Tasman. That will see a short/medium term pattern of onshore winds and small summer surf becoming established before a chunky NE windswell this weekend as high pressure moves out into the Tasman.

In the short run we’ll see easing surf through Thurs with leftover 2ft surf early, easing during the day and light/mod N-NE winds becoming established.

These NE winds increase through Fri, bringing some workable NE windswell to 2ft in the a’noon.

Much bigger NE windswell then develops on Sat as the fetch intensifies off the South Coast and down into Bass Strait (see below). After an undersized start in the 2-3ft range expect NE windswell to build to 4ft during the a’noon under fresh NNE-NE winds.

Nice boost in size expected Sat from this fetch

Sunday will have plenty of size through the morning with sets to 3-5ft but a fresh S-SSE wind change now looks likely to occur through the early morning so you’ll need to get up for the early and hope for the best. Once the change comes through expect building short range S swell to 3-4ft to build in quickly.

Winds fade quickly Mon in the wake of the trough with small leftovers in the 2ft range under a light onshore flow.

Winds quickly clock around to the NE Tues with workable levels of NE windswell likely to push into the 2ft range during the a’noon.

From mid next week we should see a strong S’ly change push through Wed, tied to a front and low in the lower Tasman. That should see another spike in S swell later Wed into the 3ft range, easing through Thurs with winds tending light onshore as a new high starts to drift towards Tasmania from well south in the Bight.

Easing swells are then expected into next weekend. 

Check back Fri for the latest.