The building blocks for a classic Summer monsoonal pattern are now firmly in place and almost the entire Eastern Seaboard from the Tropic of Capricorn to Tasmania is going receive swell as a result of it.
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The high pressure belt holds good support for this low pressure area with reinforcing cells stacking onto a slow moving system located at South Island latitudes. Eventually this large low pressure system drags a board fetch south enough to send useful E/NE swell to NE Tas.
The high in the Tasman does set up a more local NE fetch though, with some chunky NE swell expected to develop Mid week.
Not much on offer over the Xmas weekend. Approaching fronts drive NW winds through Sat, tending more W’ly on Xmas day but no major swell sources are on offer so we’ll be looking at just tiny back ground swell from the E in the 1ft range.
As this swell generating pattern breaks down we’ll be left with a weak, troughy pattern coming into the Xmas weekend with no major swell sources on hand, so you’ll need to get your grovel boards ready for Santa.
Good options in protected spots as the swell continues all weekend and early next week while clocking more east in direction.
Windy, cold and with persistent swell energy from the south-eastern quadrant.
A prolonged, windy southerly swell is expected from Thursday through early next week.
Cleaner conditions with a good SE swell for the weekend, fading into next week. Windy building surf is likely later in the week.
Plenty more surf to come but with less favourable winds from tomorrow afternoon. Improving into the weekend.