Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri February 24th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building N/NE windswell later Thu with N/NW tending strong N/NE winds
• Fun N/NE windswell Fri with strong N/NE winds, lighter and N/NW early
• Peak in N/NE windswell Sat with N/NW tending strong N/NE winds- possible late NW/SW winds
• S’ly winds Sun with easing NE windswell with small S swell Sun/Mon
• Not much expected next week

Recap

Small S swell yesterday with S facing beaches seeing some 3ft surf, tiny elsewhere. Size had eased back with almost all beaches seeing surf less than 1-1.5ft under light NE winds. 

This weekend and next week (Feb 24 - Mar3)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure is now drifting SE towards the South Island with an approaching trough tightening the pressure gradient and leading to fresh N’ly winds for Eastern Tasmania .

Those winds will extend through tomorrow with the trough bringing a late SW change (likely after dark) and NE windswell in the 3-4ft range building further to 3-5ft during the a’noon. 

Winds look flukey for Sun morning as the trough hovers off the East Coast but there should be a period of SW winds early before winds freshen from the S/SW then tend S/SE during the day. Expect an early peak in size with decreasing NE windswell to 3ft early, rapidly easing during the day. 

Into next week and the trough sweeps a fetch of SSW/S winds past the state Sun/Mon bringing a small flush of S swell Mon, in the 3ft range at S facing beaches with mod S’ly winds tending SSE during the day.

Front brings a small flush of S swell

This swell settles down quickly and we’re looking at a couple of tiny S swell days in the 1-2ft range at S facing beaches, flat elsewhere through Tues/Wed. Light N’ly winds Tues tend S’ly Wed as another weak trough pushes through. 

We may see a brief flush of NE windswell Thurs/Fri before a front brings more small S swell. Models are offering mixed messages on this outcome so check back Mon for latest revisions.

The tropics are active next week but an expected tropical depression is likely too far north and moves SE to track down the Pacific side of the North Island. That makes it unlikely to be a swell source for East Tas but we can’t rule out some small E/NE swell from this system first week in March.

Check back Mon and we’ll have a fresh look at it.

In the mean-time, have a great weekend!