By and large, this weather progression has so far been aimed out of the South Arm’s swell window - up until this afternoon. The storm track’s been a little too north, so the resulting swell direction to date has been quite west, or even north-west across Tasmanian latitudes.
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A complex series of powerful lows will track across Tasmanian longitudes from Monday onwards, delivering W/NW tending W’ly gales and building strong surf across the region.
We’re in the midst of a regional blocking pattern with the main influence for our region being a stationary belt of high pressure across the Southern Ocean, stretching from underneath Western Australia through South Australia to a position below Tasmania.
In Tuesday’s notes, I mentioned an intensifying polar low well below WA for Friday that had the possibility of generating a small unusual sideband SW swell for Sunday afternoon.
Although the synoptics look very impressive, this low is travelling a little more north in latitude than is ideal and this will impact size potential through the South Arm.
No lack of surf over the coming period but winds will be tricky and variable.
Tons of swell on the cards though winds will vary and be favourable and unfavourable at times.
An active period of surf with moderate to large though westerly angled swells this period.
Small clean swell for tomorrow, then tiny until a strong though west swell builds mid-week.
Mostly tiny apart from a couple of groundswells from the south-west and west.