Today's building short range NE swell will reach a peak during the middle of the night.
Main feature on the synoptic charts is a strengthening N'ly fetch adjacent the NSW coast, between a Tasman high and an approaching front through the Bight.
We’ve got a strong, expansive front passing through the Tasman at present will which supply pulses of S swell over the coming days. High pressure over NSW is moving NE into the Tasman, with a N’ly flow developing. That N'ly flow will really intensify next week with some juicy NE windswell resulting.
High cells are now tending to move NE as they enter the Tasman, bringing N’ly episodes which were rare through our triple La Niña but are becoming common as we enter El Niño proper. Small, combination swells and some light wind periods pad out the rest of the week with a more entrenched N’ly episode next week offering potential for a much juicier NE swell.
The high pressure belt is behaving in typical spring fashion- tracking NE as it enters the Tasman with episodic N’lies. We’ve got a small fetch out of Cook Strait at present from a decaying low pressure system, and small, compact low about to enter the Tasman. Combined with some swell from a tradewind band feeding into a long trough we’ll see concurrent small swells from these sources.
Not a great deal of action on the radar for next week but enough swell energy from various sources to get a surf most days. High pressure elongates and drifts NE into the Tasman with a light NW- N’ly flow expected for Mon morning and a small mixed bag of leftover S and E/NE swell filtering down from the tropics.
High pressure is now close to New Zealand, with an advancing trough and cold front bringing a fresh S’ly change, expected to generate a strong SE surge up the sub-tropical coast as a new high moves into the Bight and strengthens. Once the high moves into the Tasman over the weekend it’ll set up a blocking pattern but we’re expecting a few small S pulses leading up to that although winds look fickle. E'ly swell from persistent tradewind fetches should continue as a fun background source of swell.
We’ve got another slow moving pattern on our hands to start the week with a high pressure belt at sub-tropical latitudes directing a N’ly flow across the state and a very zonal (W-E) storm track tracking through the far southern Tasman Sea. A tradewind band has weakened and contracted eastwards but is expected to remain slow moving this week, maintaining a small, background signal of E/NE swell.
A trough hovering about the South Coast will see a N’ly flow through Sat, with good odds for a morning NW breeze and a late tilt back to the NW, especially south of Sydney. Further north freshening N’lies look more likely. A few leftover S swell trains should hold some 2 occ 3ft sets at S facing beaches but energy will be in the way down.
We still have a large (1032hPa) high slow moving over NSW directing light N’lies over temperate NSW and SE winds in the sub-tropics. A slow moving frontal progression is gradually working it’s way clear of New Zealand longitudes while sending pulses of S’ly groundswell our way.