Plenty of chunky short range S swell through Sun as the low generates a proximate fetch of S’ly low end gales along the south coast to Hunter.
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We’ll see the E’ly flow continue to develop in the Northern Tasman and Coral Seas through this week, with swells from that E-NE quadrant building through this short term period under an onshore flow.
The dominant player is a massive high moving through the Bight and expected to drift over and eastwards of Tasmania tomorrow to occupy the Tasman for most of the week.
Back to looking dynamic next week. The crux of it is another very strong high moving at Tasmanian latitudes early next week. That will be the anvil for any hammer that forms next week.
The trough forms a broad surface low that briefly flares up as it drifts towards the North Island and interacts with a more tropical derived low.
Once again, we’re in a position of enhanced instability in the Tasman and Coral Seas with models really struggling to resolve the troughiness.
The large east swell will continue to ease as conditions remain less than ideal.
No great change to the f/cast for the week. The slowly retreating fetch is continuing to send strong E swells with just slow easing trend in play.
Current ASCAT (satellite wind speed) pass shows a low in the Northern Tasman with SE gales proximate to the NSW Coast and a long, broad fetch of E’ly gales extending from the Tasman out to a position north of the North Island.
If anything that eastwards movement looks slower than modelled on Wed so large surf will persist at elevated levels for longer.