Corona Open J'Bay forecast update

Craig Brokensha
Swellnet Dispatch

After two days of head-high rock runners, the surviving competitors of the J'Bay Open have some proper swell to look forward to with the event expected to end in great surf.

Today will be small with easing sets from the 3ft range, and the organisers have called a layday in advance. However, a low that's currently southwest of South Africa will project a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds through J-Bay's south-western swell window later today, stalling slightly south of the continent.

This will produce a large, long-period SW groundswell with sets building to 6ft+ through Friday afternoon, easing slowly from a similar, if not slightly smaller size, on Saturday morning.

Winds will be offshore Friday morning ahead of a shallow southeast change early-afternoon, with variable tending offshore winds Saturday morning ahead of sea breezes.

Following this, a small reinforcing southwest groundswell is expected on Sunday afternoon, though it's not likely to get above 4ft on the sets. Fortunately, there are bigger and better developments on the cards for the final days of the waiting period.

As indicated in the early forecast, we'll see a strong frontal progression taking place through next week when a slow-moving low with embedded fronts drifts in from the W/SW early next week.

Initially, this will create a 4-5ft southwest groundswell for Tuesday, but moving into Wednesday a vigorous front on the tail of the progression will push up into the South African coast during the morning providing a two-pronged hit of swell. Firstly, there'll be a local increase in S/SW groundswell through Wednesday afternoon, followed by a larger swell as the front continues to aim strong S/SW winds towards the coast.

At this stage it looks like we'll see J'Bay building to 5-6ft Wednesday afternoon, with larger 6-8ft surf on the cards for Thursday along with favourable winds from the western quadrant.

With this there'll be plenty of quality, moderate to large surf for organisers to pick the eyes out of.

Comments

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 11:13am

right on. right on.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 11:14am

Could be a drawn out event then. What have they got left - maybe two full days of heats?

mbl88's picture
mbl88's picture
mbl88 commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 11:37am

Roughly 16hrs of men's heats alone to surf and 8hrs to finish the women's side.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 11:40am

Cheers mbl. Better free up some arvo time at work next week

ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 11:45am

fuck i love jbay

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 11:59am

Would there ever be any consideration for the locals? Like they could have 2nd, 3rd and 4th best days of that forecast but leave the best day for everyone?

I guess I’ll apply that question too all events.

I am the bone

mab222's picture
mab222's picture
mab222 commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 2:28pm

Bone, the thing about being a local is that you have the privilege of being right there at the right time getting the best surf at your spot whenever it happens to be on. they certainly should not feel hardly done by giving it up for a few days. sharing is caring

lost's picture
lost's picture
lost commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 12:22pm

Having had the 'seeding round' (LOL you could use the tour rankings for that) and 'elimination round' (LOL again as removing only 4 of 36 surfers is hardly elimination especially as usually 2 or 3 of those are wild cards anyway.

So we are on to the round of 32 which is really just ground hog day. But hey for J-Bay I can handle watching a extra day and half. Everywhere else not so much.

knB

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 12:22pm

Sounds promising, Craig. Good work!

ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 12:23pm

hey nick. it's always shitted me that in every speech at huntington, every surfer always thanks 'the locals' because they've obviously been told to, but at every other break it rarely if ever happens. so wsl give consideration to the locals? fat chance i reckon. lotsa talk about the north shore locals getting increasingly frozen out in recent years with fewer wildcards too iirc

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 12:33pm

Gotta love the bottom of the world for regularly producing the goods better than that woozy Pacific thing. I am trying to think when was the last dud at Jbay?

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 1:32pm

Gary notes that this is the 3rd event (at least) this year (after Bells and Keramas) where the forecast at the start of the event wasn’t much of a show-er, but revealed itself to be a grower once the action started.

I’ve created a monster. Cause nobody wants to ride faceys no more, they want Gary; I’m chopped liver.

But if ya want Gary this is what I’ll give ya: a little creatine kiss from a hard licker

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 2:03pm

Gotta love a grower!

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 2:20pm
Lottolonglong's picture
Lottolonglong's picture
Lottolonglong commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 3:39pm

Woooooooooow! Did he make it?

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 5:45pm

Not sure, but apparently he was on a 5'10 CI Happy!

old man of the sea's picture
old man of the sea's picture
old man of the sea commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 9:40pm

He didn't make it, lost the board, but had the time of his life..... (apparently) and was chaired up the beach when he got in.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 9:50pm

Footage of it on his insta.

Mishad's picture
Mishad's picture
Mishad commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 4:09pm

Go to wonder though. If there was no drone or photogs on the beach would he have gone?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 3:16pm

they'll go overlapping heats in rd3.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Thursday, 11 Jul 2019 at 10:52pm

I hope not.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 7:26am

Why would they do this if the forecast is looking so good at the end? Just to knock off Rd 3 Friday arvo?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 9:41am

yep. rd3 is now 16 heats which is a huge drain on time.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 9:44am

J'Bay is a tricky place to run overlapping heats. Sure, more surfing would be done, but with an elongated lineup with multiple takeoff points the likelihood of one heat interfering with the other is greater.

Too much surfing coming to run it anyway.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 9:52am

Maybe.
seems quite straightforwards too.

The non priority heat sits down the line and picks up the smaller/wider waves then moves into position when it is their turn.

worked at Bells, worked in Brazil.

it'll depend on how many waves are coming through though.

if it's slow then it won't work.

if there are heaps of waves it's a no brainer.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 10:06am

It was originally conceived for Pipe 'cos of the waiting period issues on the North Shore, and I recall KS explaining how it'd work there because there's no down the line takeoff area.

The idea that non-priority heats will sit down the line is theoretically great, until someone in a priority heat is scrambling for scores, perhaps paddling back out and looking for anything, so they drop in on a non-priority surfer.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 12:47pm

Yeah I know.

But now they are using it to maximise surf time during swells, which works great.

Seen it work at D-bah and Brazil ; random beach break and right hand beachie and seen it work at Bells; right hand Point/reef.

Can't see any reason why it wouldn't work at Jbay for the above reasons.

When you are in the Priority heat you take the pick of the sets; when you are in the non-priority heat you pick up the unridden waves.

And we mow through Rd 3 in less time so they can maximise the peak of the swell/wind/tide combo for the pointy end of the comp.

Anyway we'll see what happens.

Remigogo's picture
Remigogo's picture
Remigogo commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 8:32am

Thank you mother nature xxoo

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 11:03am

Hope it cracks from boneyards to the point.
It at should be on your bucket list!
Its one thing to watch it.
After surfing it the reality of the wave comes more into play.

I have a hard time watching it in conditions like the first day of the waiting period.

It has to be a certain size for the wave to really work .

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 11:51am

Is it as hard to surf "well" as it's always said to be? And as fast as it looks?
Bucket-list wave for sure!

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 2:35pm

It depends on what "well" is I guess.

I was lucky enough to have a friend from S A ( who lived in jbay for years) .....tell me the ins and outs of jbay before I even arrived.
He basically gave me the secret treasure map.

I shall not be divulging the info anywhere.

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 2:42pm

Fair enough!

garyg1412's picture
garyg1412's picture
garyg1412 commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 3:25pm

Pops don't be fooled - there is no secret treasure map. Just follow the locals out the keyhole snag yourself a bomb and be prepared for the biggest, longest, quickest, most perfect wave of your life.

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 3:52pm

Yeah, there's few spots you can't work out by watching the ocean and the locals for a while... after that its just a matter of respect, patience and committing when your number comes up, hey.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Saturday, 13 Jul 2019 at 3:45pm

Oh yes there is......

waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet commented Monday, 15 Jul 2019 at 12:48pm

I don't think there's much too much of a secret out at supers, unless you're talking about the angle of the keyhole just to the right of what was Derek Hynd's house on the cliff :p

My longest wave ever in Jbay still remains as one I caught just off from the peak at coins (section after impossibles where the kneeboarders always get shacked), made it past the tubes take off, then past the point keyhole and all the way down past the bottom carpark at lower point, and nearly made it to Abatross!

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Thursday, 18 Jul 2019 at 2:53pm

You don't start at the key hole silly you paddle out at albatross....

garyg1412's picture
garyg1412's picture
garyg1412 commented Thursday, 18 Jul 2019 at 4:16pm

Ha ha never thought of that option Lanky!!! Although I did once come in near there all the way from Boneyards. Wondered why I had jellylegs!!!!

Jamyardee's picture
Jamyardee's picture
Jamyardee commented Saturday, 13 Jul 2019 at 9:49pm

I surfed it for a bit at a decent size a few years ago, and I found it hard to surf well. Easy wave yes, the pro's make it look easy to surf well. Twiggy was the only one surfing boneyards on the biggest day, very few linked up because the swell direction was off a bit, he got injured out there and came hobbling in. Check out "The Pure Line" doco on J-Bay, Shaun Tomson knocks the wave character on the head.

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops commented Thursday, 18 Jul 2019 at 2:58pm

Will do!

garyg1412's picture
garyg1412's picture
garyg1412 commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 1:01pm

"Hope It Cracks From Boneyards To The Point"
They'll need 3 judging stands and additional camera locations for that one Lanky.
Be a sight to see though wouldn't it.

Mishad's picture
Mishad's picture
Mishad commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 4:22pm

Problem is most of the pros don't know where to sit on the good days!! Ive watched mulitple jbay contests in solid surf and if baffles me how (usually) the brazzos (de Souza being the exception) sit waaay down the point giving up 100m or more further up of wave for some reason. I guess they don't put the time in the water enough to figure out the lineup. My guess is they don't want to surf when no drones are up to spot the dark shades lurking nearby.

You can tell the surfers than have put the time in as they sit way up the point on those proper days knowing the wave will hold its shape (albeit fast) from end of boneyards right through. Curren, KS, Fanning, Occy, Parko come to mind who naturally maximise the lineup. Next thursdays forcast looks interesting and I'll certainly make a day of it if it pushes 6ft plus. To be fair WSL put on a good contest and the infrastructure available to the public is first class. I'm happy to sit out a day or 2 in the season to watch the best in the world have a crack.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Saturday, 13 Jul 2019 at 3:54pm

Top jbay surfers in no particular order

Franky
Curren
Occy
Parko
Fanning
Jordy
Koffie
Holmes
Thomsons.

waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet commented Monday, 15 Jul 2019 at 12:51pm

I'd put Derek Hynd on that list too, same with Warren Dean and Dylan Stone

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Monday, 15 Jul 2019 at 1:05pm

Gavin Rudolph Peers Pittard

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 12:40pm

That swell still on track for today?
I was hoping to enjoy a lazy Friday arvo watching but the missus went and planned an impromptu dinner with friends so the kids could have a play date.
After all the time spent in the water lately I could only meekly reply with ..."That's a great idea love".
It's her friend too...the husbands a tosser.
Me and my first world problems.

I'm not cheap,
But I'm free.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 12:46pm

Yep swell is on track. Timing is for an arrival midday, so high chance they'll be on hold from 4pm or so. You can tick off the dinner, get home and switch it on into the evening.

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 1:33pm

Perfect...I was hoping you'd say that!
Thanks Craig.

I'm not cheap,
But I'm free.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 1:35pm

Excellent. I'll be able to watch it for a bit at the airport over a beer before heading back to Adelaide for the weekend. Going to see what I can find tomorrow down south. Ain't going to be pretty!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 1:36pm

Onshore Dump grovel? Yuck.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 2:25pm

Will have a look closer to the Bluff. if not there, between PE and Dribs. Dump will be ugly.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Friday, 12 Jul 2019 at 4:59pm

Sounds like a great night ahead for you crg!!!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Saturday, 13 Jul 2019 at 7:14am

Anyone know why they didn't run it Friday afternoon?

cnevster's picture
cnevster's picture
cnevster commented Saturday, 13 Jul 2019 at 8:18am

That said it was building, but too inconsistent.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Saturday, 13 Jul 2019 at 8:17am

bad winds? I don't know.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Saturday, 13 Jul 2019 at 9:17am

I think the swell arrived too late.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Saturday, 13 Jul 2019 at 4:26pm

"Swell bigger than expected" Compared to Surfline's forecast yes, but not our expectations. The low was quite strong and slow moving so we should see good and solid sets most of the day.

Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake commented Saturday, 13 Jul 2019 at 6:59pm

What a setup on a cold Saturday night

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Saturday, 13 Jul 2019 at 7:16pm

Same WOTL, switching between the footy..

Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake's picture
Westofthelake commented Saturday, 13 Jul 2019 at 7:58pm

Ha wow I like yours better ,)

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Monday, 15 Jul 2019 at 2:24pm

I got a hard time from my wife because I had Geelong v St Kilda on the tele and JBay on the computer, then the tennis came on and I think cricket as well. Never have enough sport!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Monday, 15 Jul 2019 at 2:26pm

So what's the latest forecast? They gonna run today?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 15 Jul 2019 at 2:33pm

Nah already called a lay day as we're in between swells. We should see a couple of good new SW groundswells filling in tomorrow, easing Wednesday.

Winds aren't great tomorrow (N'ly devilish), better Wednesday, while we've got a good new swell for Friday which I'm guessing they will finish on.

Tim Fisher's picture
Tim Fisher's picture
Tim Fisher commented Tuesday, 16 Jul 2019 at 1:23pm

Hey Craig, any chance you've looked at the forecast for next week, after the comp? Asking for a friend...

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 16 Jul 2019 at 1:30pm

Let your friend know that the forecast is looking excellent all of next week Tim. Large back to back swells and with great winds. Very jealous!

Tim Fisher's picture
Tim Fisher's picture
Tim Fisher commented Tuesday, 16 Jul 2019 at 8:54pm

Thanks Craig. Really appreciate it.
Said friend is trying to keep a lid on it, but is quietly frothing out of his mind.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Monday, 15 Jul 2019 at 4:46pm

Ok thanks Craig.

mixed@kom's picture
mixed@kom's picture
[email protected] commented Thursday, 18 Jul 2019 at 7:33pm

Howzit , my two cents for the best at Supers, adding to the list;
Johnathon Paarman
Richard Cram
Gary Timperley
Valdar Vargas
Mitch Thorson
Davy Stolk
Garth Dickenson
Joel Fitzgerald
Warren Dean
Probably a few more but its been quite a number of years to keep track of everybody.