Christmas Day Forecast
If you've spotted a package around six feet long under the Christmas tree, you'll be glad to know that it'll be put to good use over the coming holiday weekend. Nearly every state around Australia is expected to have waves, but just a heads up: if you live in Western Australia you may want to crack open the presents a day early. Read on for the reason why.
Queensland & Northern NSW: There'll be plenty of options as a large east swell starts to build from Saturday onwards, peaking through Christmas and Boxing Day. We're looking at 6ft+ through Sunday and Monday, and local winds permitting, the points should be firing.
Sydney: While South East Queensland will bare the brunt of the size, Southern NSW should still see moderate levels of E/NE swell building through Saturday and Sunday, reaching 3-5ft into Christmas afternoon. A larger pulse to 4-6ft is possible into the following Tuesday, with the mornings offering the cleanest waves with light winds.
Victoria: The weekend will start off slow with tiny levels of background energy, but a new W/SW groundswell is expected later on Christmas Day, peaking early on Boxing Day. Conditions are unfortunately looking average as an onshore change moves through later Sunday and persists with strength through Monday. Later in the week is looking better with a new SW swell and easterly winds.
Tasmania: The South Arm will offer little to no options for holiday surfers, but the East Coast should provide a fun sized north-east windswell throughout the entire weekend.
South Australia: The weekend will start out similar to Victoria with tiny waves and favourable winds. A new W/SW groundswell should fill in on Christmas afternoon, offering fun small waves on the Mid Coast, while the South Coast will also have plenty of swell, but poor conditions with strengthening onshore winds.
Western Australia: Christmas Eve is looking excellent for West Oz surfers with a solid south-west swell and SE winds across the state on Saturday. The lower South West should come in at 6-8ft with small waves on the metro beaches and fun waves further north. By Christmas Day the swell will be easing but still worthwhile.
So with the promising forecast for most of the country, I hope the surf pumps and the stick under the Christmas tree goes well.
Update: The swell outlook for entire Australian east coast has been upgraded due a low pressure system drifting down from Papua New Guinea to a position off the Queensland coast being much stronger and likely to develop into a Tropical Cyclone. If this scenario eventuates, the Tropical Cyclone is likely to be named Fina.
The South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales coast are expected to see wave heights reaching 8-10ft now through Christmas Day and Boxing Day, with the Southern NSW coast seeing slightly smaller but still large waves developing through Monday, persisting Tuesday and Wednesday.
Big morning tides will coincide with the 10ft swell on the Goldy! Any thoughts on the possibility of coastal damage? Im up on the GC till just before new years so im hoping that its not tow only stuff! Its a long drive to Noosa, or maybe the Pass will be an option? Crowded no doubt!
There'll be other high tide options in the Bay YS.
And the Pass will be a zoo of biblical proportions.
I reckon high tide 6-8ft Big Groyne Kirra will sort the men from the boys if you've got the right equipment and don't mind a few run arounds.
Will be waxing up my 6'7" Al Byrne channel bottom and hoping my arms are up for the horrendous paddle! Thanks for the advice freeride!
by the look of the latest g.f.s.charts on elders weather,unless you can paddle like durbridge,parko or fanning,mate i reckon on a 6.7 you will be well undergunned,this is going to be a very fast moving brutal swell.......if youre in any doubt about your skill or fitness spectate only,there will some world class surfing to see...could be a ski tow only swell until it drops a little..
also reckon the kingscliff beachfront erosion repairs will fail,with such big tides and the large swell....10 -12 ft plus i'm calling
I wonder how those beachfront houses at palmy will go, I surfed it on a high tide the other week and it doesnt seem like it would take much to wash into some of those pads!
I have surfed quite a few cyclone swells up here over the years victor and know how crazy it can get. I wont be going on any suicide missions but will try and squeeze a few surfs either side of the peak!
You may well be right Victor, but there's still plenty of X's in this equation.
Development seems a bit hindered as of right now, so this low may not even reach TC status.......evrything hinges on how close it comes to the coast and whether it stalls off the Fraser Coast as it undergoes extra-tropical transition.
A slow moving hybrid system off that stretch of coast would see the upper end of calls come into play.
If it moves away more quickly and doesn't undergo that ETT until it is on the way to NZ then we'll see much smaller (and cleaner) surf.
I'm still leaning towards the upper end of the scale like you but 10-12 is a mighty big call.
i'll be leaving Sydney for SA over the Christmas period. as planned 6 months ago.
usually, i do better with this move and score decent uncrowded waves in SA while the East Coast endures NE'er windswell dribble.
not happy. fingers crossed the SA forecast improves.
Tropical Cyclone Fina has just been named and is currently positioned between New Caledonia and The Northern Queensland coast.
Fina is only a category 1 system and is expected to weaken back to a tropical low overnight tonight while drifting south, but Fina is the first significant swell generating Cyclone for the season now.
There' also a high chance the development of another cyclone just north-east of Darwin.
Whilst it may weaken back to tropical low status it's likely to undergo extra-tropical transition and become a hybrid system in the swell window, probably right smack bang in the prime "Fraser coast" corridor.
I'm waxing an 8 footer up.
Does this system have much of a bearing on the Port Maquarie coastline?
(Please answer with a yes...)
(But only if it's true...)
Yes. Most definitely.
Well... I'll see you there with all the other holiday crew!