Girt By Sweltering Sea

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

It might be surprising to East Coast surfers that the current heavy and persistent rainfall impacting the seaboard is being aided by the warm ocean temperatures running adjacent the coast.

With water temperatures between 25-28°C flowing south from the Coral Sea via the East Australian Current, we're seeing moisture being drawn up from this warm water source, then dumped along the coastal fringe by onshore easterly winds.

Right around Australia water temperatures are currently warmer than normal and this is linked to the back-to-back La Niña events the past two summers. Stronger than normal easterly trade-winds along the equatorial Pacific Ocean have been piling up warm water in the Western Pacific, with it flowing down through Indonesia to the north-west of Australia as well as the Coral Sea to our north-east.

Australia surrounded by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures. Source: NOAA

Two weeks ago the Sydney Wave buoy, situated 10km off Long Reef on Sydney's Northern Beaches recorded the highest temperature in its near thirty year record. Sea surface temperatures of 26.6°C were recorded on the 11th of February, beating the previous record of 26.3°C recorded both in March 2004 and February 2019 respectively. Remembering tropical cyclones only need water temperatures of 26.5°C to maintain their strength.

Manly Hydraulics Laboratory have kindly provided the last thirty years of observational data from the Sydney Wave buoy with the output provided below.

Sea surface observations off Long Reef, Sydney (1993-current), with the ONI shown below. Red = El Niño years and blue = La Niña years. Source: MHL and NOAA

What's shown is the yearly sea surface temperature variation from 1993 to now, with temperatures ranging between around 15-16°C at its lowest in late winter to 25-26°C late summer/early autumn.

I've also added a trend-line (red) and one can see that sea surface temperatures have been rising slowly by just over 1°C the past thirty years. The trend is most obvious in the warming of winter temperatures more towards 17°C and summer temperatures hovering closer to 26°C.

Personally I would have thought the warmest temperatures would have been experienced during La Niña years but the data doesn't match up with the previous records of 26.3°C falling in neutral and weak El Niño years - 2004 and 2019.

I've aligned the data with the Ocean Niño Index (ONI) which shows El Niño years in the positive (red) and La Niña years in the negative (blue).

Keeping in mind the buoy is some distance offshore and doesn't pick up upwelling events from strong north-east winds very well, the data shows that the significant El Niño events of 1997/1998 and 2015/2016 weren't overly cool and conversely the La Niña events of 1998-2000 and 2010-2012 weren't overly warm.

The main point is that we're seeing a gradual increase in the sea surface temperatures throughout the whole year off the southern NSW coast, which is in line with climate change predictions. The Tasman Sea is a global warming hot spot and area of concern with it projected to warm quicker than other ocean basins thanks to the southward flowing East Australian Current.

While great for recreational water users, the migration of tropical species further south displaces other sub-tropical species while helping propagate invasive species like the Long-spine Sea Urchins throughout Tasmania.

Moving over to the country's west, and with a build up of warm water north-west of Western Australia the Leeuwin Current has come in much earlier this year, along with near record temperatures.

The Leeuwin Current is one of the world's rare eastern boundary currents, that being southward flowing from the equator towards the poles. Usually currents at the eastern boundaries of ocean basins flow from south to north, but the Leeuwin Current bucks the trend. It transports warm water south and around the corner of the country similar to the East Australian Current.

I spoke to Shanan Worrall from Shark Eyes, a diver and surfer who's spent his life in and around Western Australian waters.

Usually the Leeuwin Current only heads south and rounds the capes (Cape Naturaliste and Cape Leeuwin) in late March, but according to Shanan it arrived near the start of February, four to six weeks earlier than ususal. Spanish Mackerel was spotted in the region, which was unseasonal, along with murky water off Bunbury brought in by the southward-flowing current stirring up sea floor sediment. Usually the bay is clear and turquoise owing to the persistent southerly winds during summer.

In Perth and Mandurah, abalone have been dying and washing up on the beaches since the end of December with the reduced oxygen levels and high sea surface temperatures of 24-25°C thanks to a marine heatwave. The record-breaking heat brought through the summer thanks to a semi-permanent heat trough (linked to La Niña) also exacerbated the heating, adding to the warm water flowing south with the Leeuwin Current.

Sea surface temperature anomaly and percentiles charts off the southern Western Australian coast. Source: IMOS

Looking at the sea surface temperature anomaly charts off the Western Australian coast, while 2-3°C above average, the telling imagery is in the percentiles. That being in what range do the current sea surface temperatures fall compared to long-term averages and right now they're in the 90-100% percentile range ie, the top 10% of all records.

Coming back to the East Coast, and what all the current precipitation and exchange of heat energy will do to water temps off the coast is likely cool them, along with freshwater input from the river systems. So expect things to cool a touch over the coming weeks, but for many surfers in the northern regions this will be a relief.

Special thanks to Manly Hydraulics Laboratory on behalf of the NSW Department of Planning and Environment Biodiversity and Conservation Division.

Comments

tango's picture
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tango Thursday, 24 Feb 2022 at 2:06pm

Perfect timing for lunch, thanks Craig.

That water temp is scary stuff when it's plausible that cyclones could theoretically not only be maintained but potentially have their genesis off Sydney. I'll bet the Insurance Council is interested.

Good to see that line of best fit showing the warming trend, too, though I'm sure the conspiracy theorists will point to some data nobody has from 1329AD which showed a cooling trend in the tavern.

mowgli's picture
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mowgli Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 11:55am

They are indeed.

Published 3 months ago by ICA; 'Climate Change Impact Series: Tropical Cyclones and Future Risks'

https://insurancecouncil.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/2021Nov_Tropi...

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 12:00pm

Thanks Mowgli.

"The total cost of tropical cyclones in Australia since 1967 has
been $23 billion.

This risk of damage attributed to tropical cyclones is expected to rise in Australia as they
will likely become more severe and are expected to track southward driven by a changing
climate."

mowgli's picture
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mowgli Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 12:18pm

You're welcome.

I was involved in a recent project modelling the risks to residential building stock for each LGA in SEQ from extreme winds in a current and climate changed world.

Let's just say there's no intention (at least from what I could tell at the time) of releasing the results to the general public. From memory the report was to be completed some time in mid-late 2022 I think.

tango's picture
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tango Saturday, 26 Feb 2022 at 11:33am

And that $23b would likely be comprised of all the impacts for which there are established valuation processes. I'm sure it doesn't include all the non-market costs, which would likely add several tens of billions to the total. Not to mention the opportunity costs of not being able to spend that rebuild/recovery funding on other things which need it. Setting priority by crisis never ends well.

tango's picture
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tango Saturday, 26 Feb 2022 at 11:41am

Thanks mowgli.

Be interesting to see what happens in the insurance market if there were a cyclone hit properly as far south as the Sunny/Gold coasts. And in the property market as vulnerable lots/houses become a lot less insurable or prohibitively expensive to do so.

Not that I'd wish that on anyone up that way, but the writing is on the wall.

donweather's picture
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donweather Thursday, 24 Feb 2022 at 3:43pm

Probably a rather simple answer to this but just wondering why more moisture is drawn up from warmer water compared to cooler water? "we're seeing moisture being drawn up from this warm water source"

Evaporation? I would have thought that's (evaporation) more about air temperatures than sea temperatures?

Craig's picture
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Craig Thursday, 24 Feb 2022 at 8:46pm

Will get back to you on this tomorrow Don.

bbbird's picture
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bbbird Thursday, 24 Feb 2022 at 9:50pm

If you want to know about rain & moisture...ask a New Zealander...
https://www.sciencelearn.org.nz/resources/725-water-and-weather

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 10:25am

Thanks bbbird.

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 10:24am

Yep it's latent heat transfer through evaporative processes with warmer water providing more energy to be used in that exchange.

Here's a great chart showing the surface energy heat-flux between the atmosphere and ocean.

Negative (blue) means the ocean is releasing energy into the atmosphere and you can see the warm water currents around the Globe doing so.

donweather's picture
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donweather Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 12:06pm

Thanks Craig

Ben Harding's picture
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Ben Harding Thursday, 24 Feb 2022 at 6:14pm

"but for many surfers in the northern regions this will be a relief." - don't think that's the case at all. Particularly SEQ surfers.

We all know what's coming. The longer boardies drags out the better. Nothing better than warm water and cool mornings.

Craig's picture
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Craig Thursday, 24 Feb 2022 at 8:48pm

True for some. I've heard complaints from others about how draining and dehydrating it is when there is no wind and sun. I personally felt this up on the MNC a few weeks ago. Was insane how warm it was even with a strong, cool southerly wind.

Ben Harding's picture
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Ben Harding Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 7:03am

? Been plenty of wind all year. Its been a game of cat and mouse hiding from those cooler southerlies as you said. Anyway, each to there own. No complaints with the water temp here.

*I wasn't aware southerlies up-well cooler water like the northerlies do. Ive always noticed the water to be warmer whenever there is swell coming from the S.

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 7:13am

Oh, the southerly winds don't upwell, they bring the warmer water sitting offshore closer in to shore (always remember the winds shift water to the left). So when blowing north-east this shift to the left is away from the coast, taking that warm water with it, replaced by cooler, deeper water.

Just mean outside air temps with the southerly breezes.

Ben Harding's picture
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Ben Harding Sunday, 27 Feb 2022 at 11:54am

Yep, that's what I always thought re south/north winds. Misread what you were saying originally. Thanks Craig.

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 28 Feb 2022 at 10:19am

No worries.

Redmond Clement's picture
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Redmond Clement Thursday, 24 Feb 2022 at 6:45pm

Alarming alright. Massive tree planting, revegetation is needed to restore our Earths equilibrium.

Les bundy's picture
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Les bundy Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 7:37am

Can you get that message through to everyone Redmond, worldwide I mean.

Redmond Clement's picture
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Redmond Clement Sunday, 27 Feb 2022 at 4:18pm

We need a reforestation mandate Les. Actually you can see a major shift taking place, those in darkness are losing their grip.
No doubt there will be more major upheavals but the future could be bright!

sean killen's picture
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sean killen Thursday, 24 Feb 2022 at 7:04pm

When you can surf in boardies in driving rain in summer on the central coast at 25c water 23c air .. that’s sensational in 30 years of surfing can’t recall ever doing that.. but over the farkn rain just the same ..

Island Bay's picture
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Island Bay Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 4:58am

I know that we're the poor cousin to the east, and as such don't reach your incredible numbers, but heck it's been hot over here too. Four months in boardies and a vest.

The Raglan offshore buoy reads 22.5C at the moment, with inshore water warmer than that.

We'll take some of your rain, though. Tinder dry.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 6:41am

Why so dry there IB?

You don't get access to those Pacific moisture sources?

Island Bay's picture
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Island Bay Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 6:51am

South Island and Central NZ had the tropical moisture conveyor on them for a while, with three very significant rain events as a result.

Central and upper North Island have been sitting under a ridge of high pressure most of the time, with hot to very hot E-NE flow.

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 6:57am

Yeah fascinating! And yeah NZ is surrounded as well. Thanks for the updates and contributions as always.

How often to Raglan surfers get into boardies?

Island Bay's picture
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Island Bay Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 7:02am

My pleasure, Craig.

Boardies every summer, but longer period this year and warmer than normal. (And you still see guys in a 3/2 steamer. They must almost be steaming.)

brandonrooney14's picture
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brandonrooney14 Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 7:39am

IB - I’m still seeing people on the goldy wear steamers! I dunno how they’re even surviving putting one on in the carpark.

Island Bay's picture
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Island Bay Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 12:00pm

I was thinking of that. So many Goldy edit have guys in steamers, in fucken summer! Madness.

(Water was a tad cooler this morning, and a fresh easterly was blowing, but I still surfed almost 4 hours in boardies and a top. No dramas.)

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 7:38am

Yeah, cheers IB.

Being in the lee of that moisture flow was not something I really considered.

stunet's picture
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stunet Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 7:47am

Rainfall?

On average, February is the wettest month around here, but when the 9am total comes in this morning the local weather station will have clocked twice the average for the month to date - and there's still three days of heavy rain to come.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 8:00am

curbs's picture
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curbs Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 8:02am

Thermocline. My new word of the day.

juegasiempre's picture
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juegasiempre Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 9:05am

I'm reading Collapse by Jared Diamond at the moment so I guess my thoughts are influenced by that but I don't think we're going to solve global warming, nor the extreme environmental damage we've caused since the first aboriginals came to Australia and started making species extinct unless we heavily regulate capitalism and use the Skinner boxes of Facebook, Twitter et al to stop increasing outrage at each other and program the mass of men to support planet saving measures. But I can't see that happening.

I think it's going to go how it's always gone thus far; the rich survive and the poor die. The number of poor are increasing as well and it's clear that despite me having had a good wage, living frugally and investing, I'm in that class of poor. I can't afford a house that they used to give to junkies in the 80s. These trends, as with environmental destruction will and already are accelerating.

So far travelling the east coast this month alone there's been a week straight of gale force southerlies and rain, now a week straight of easterlies and even more rain and erosion that has suprised me, even revisting beaches that I've been to 3 years ago.

Good luck to all, be loving (and tolerant!) and enjoy every day.

SeaHealing's picture
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SeaHealing Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 11:26am

you're dead right bro. Its like Redgum sang years ago about Australia "We've taken some right turns, they've been the wrong ones." Big thanks to the govts for cane toads and five billion choices of free market foreign cars that killed off our car industry and made us more dependent on old foes. DEVO assessed things correctly too.
The weather is gonna get more extreme and the poor suffer, by and large, with massive erosion of our pathetic wages by huge swells in insurance costs that the rich arent barely bothered by. Australia has been destroyed by continual fires and floods. Fires only reduce biodiversity and that is what destroys a landscape. Might make for lots more spectacular wasteland locations for violent movies made by rich Sydney Drs to entertain themselves with but it does nothing for the rest of us. Anyway just plant a nother tree whenever you can.

davetherave's picture
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davetherave Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 9:52am

Planting trees will help, but stop cutting down the big ones already symbiotically working with us.
I just have to laugh at Humanity. Russia invades Ukraine, main media 2nd most important story, ASX plummets-AARGH, NOOOOOO!!!!!
And from my local free paper, nearby suburbs 28%increase in rents within last 12 months, where I live better pick up it's fucking game, only 18% increase since last year. Wage increases last year? CPI? They even skite about making it into the top 10 as if it's a fucking great achievement. And it would be, if they weren't people living on the streets, living in cars, having to sleep on friends lounges. It is all good and well to make a profit, but how can you truly profit when others are not only going without, they are fucking denied even the opportunity to participate humanly.
This greedy lack of awareness comes from a Separation Paradigm. People have to realise that what you fail to do for another, you fail to do for yourself. That doesn't mean making others co- dependant, but it just might mean that you can have one of your investment properties be affordable for people to live in and you don't put the rent up 18% a fucking year. But hey, as long as I am making a buck, I don't give a fuck. Unfortunately, cause and effect and the in built balance mechanism of Evolution will mean humans will experience the effects of their causes and this will be an uh oh, moment unless humanity has an ah ha moment, and real soon.

SeaHealing's picture
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SeaHealing Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 11:35am

"This world is ruled by violence, but I guess that's better left unsaid" Bob Dylan - Union Sundown
https://www.bobdylan.com/songs/union-sundown/
There's no stoppin the greedy scum. I saw a email from a Commbank advisor at the start of the "pandemic" telling people to buy certain stocks n drop others - all based on taking advantage of other people's misfortune - there's a special warm place for those people one day - hell.
God will destroy those who destroy the earth. Revelation 11:18

batfink's picture
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batfink Saturday, 26 Feb 2022 at 3:16pm

G’day Dave, hope you’re ok.

There has to be a reckoning somewhere, sometime. I don’t know how an economy works when the people who actually make an economy work can’t afford to live there. It makes no sense.

The people who make an economy work - I’m talking garbos, cleaners, train and truck drivers, child care workers, nurses and allied health, firies, retail workers, warehouse stackers, posties (or however you’d like to describe those people who deliver your online purchases), bus drivers, pizza parlour workers, food industry, toilet and tissue paper manufacturers, Maccas kids. Think of all the things that we really couldn’t do without and notice that so many of them are on minimum wage or not much better.

And when the shite really starts to hit the fan, police and the military.

Who we won’t miss - big business tycoons, business analysts, money market and sharemarket jockeys, pollies, a thousand derivatives of the word ‘accountant’, Oh that list is too long.

Apologies to any essential workers I’ve missed above.

wallpaper's picture
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wallpaper Thursday, 3 Mar 2022 at 12:08pm

You do understand what the ASX plummeting means for people's super, right? It might not mean much to you dave but some grownups might find it important. Never mind the fact that people want that money to live on later, there is a link between market stability and societal/global stability generally but perhaps you're not ready for these sorts of concepts. Keep working on it though.

vicbloke's picture
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vicbloke Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 11:15am

Thanks Craig. Informative as always. Looking at the Long Reef sea surface graph and the ever increasing (and likely ongoing) rise in sea tempretures is it safe to assume there will be more La Nina events moving forward? If so, where will be the most consitent place in Oz for swell and good winds? If the Surf Coast's last two years is a representation of what it may be like moving forward I think I may pack my bags.

Craig's picture
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Craig Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 11:20am

Thanks vicbloke but no, the increasing temperatures can't be linked to the ENSO cycle, Niña/Niño/Neutral from what I've analysed.

Match up the significant La Niño and La Niña years with the temperatures seen the year before and after as in the second graph and and there's no correlation.

memlasurf's picture
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memlasurf Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 11:33am

No mention of Victoria and the southern ocean Craig, has been very pleasant down here even if the swell has gone on holidays. Hot, sunny and warm ocean temps but.........

davetherave's picture
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davetherave Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 11:55am

Mate God won't destroy us, we are doing it to ourSELF, and hence are busily creating our own hells. Have you ever noticed how Planet Earth looks like a human cell? When a collection of human cells-a body, has an imbalance, a dysfunctional symbiosis, it tries to correct itself by a combination of rising temperature-fevers, sweating, and dropping temperatures-shivering and by either starving the problem-drought, or flushing and diluting the problem-flooding. When toxicity in the cell gets too much, it has to employ self regulatory measures to re introduce homeostasis and get the mitochondria to once again perform their functioning in balance within the whole system. The only difference between a toxic cell and a toxic planet is scale.

batfink's picture
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batfink Saturday, 26 Feb 2022 at 3:19pm

Been thinking along these lines lately too Dave. It appears that mankind is the planetary virus that needs to be brought to heal. We don’t need a god for retribution. The largely closed system of earth will rid itself of its toxins.

wallpaper's picture
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wallpaper Sunday, 27 Feb 2022 at 8:42am

"Have you ever noticed how Planet Earth looks like a human cell?"

No. But then again I actually have looked at human cells. Through microscopes.

mowgli's picture
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mowgli Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 12:02pm

I'm on the sunny coast and suffice to say it's preeeeeeetty farken wet. There are two creeks at the bottom of the small valley we overlook that I've never seen before, and some extra paddock adjacent that's suddenly visible, suggesting a small flash flood came through in the wee hours. Plus we're cut off where we are and expect to be for a few days. Parents aren't far from here and based on the pics the old man is sending through some of their paddocks are worth taking a jetski out on for some whip arounds (if it wasn't, ya know, for the fences and trees and floating dead animal obstacles).

mowgli's picture
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mowgli Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 12:09pm

To the other topic... as with climate, the warnings - from head of IMF (that bastion of socialism ha!) no less - about the consequences (including economic) of ever increasing inequality have been ignored and continue to be and here we find ourselves asking "how did it come to this?" while we continue to vote against our own long-term interests and blame everyone else.

Say what you will of the WEF (and I have thoughts), this article is from 2017 about a 2013 speech....and...nothing has been done. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/01/christine-lagarde-to-davos-leader...

I've read Jared Diamond's 'Collapse' a few times. It's a great read. I've always wanted to read Pikkety's 'Capital in the 21st Century' but it's so thicc.

gnomen's picture
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gnomen Friday, 25 Feb 2022 at 6:20pm

The environment, our environment and our children's environment. We can all play a small but effective part in change, we have a system. Its our votes that can help change happen. Not through the "major" parties but through the independents and the Greens. Yes, i can hear some of you say they don't have effective policies in other areas of concern but they don't need to win outright, just shift the balance of power so they have a say in policy making. Our political system is ineffective for real change to happen, were long over due for a shake up. JUST REMEMBER at election time, we only need to ensure the majors don't have the majority. Get serious about it. Do something.

mick-burnside's picture
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mick-burnside Saturday, 26 Feb 2022 at 7:28am

Interesting and confronting read. Scary times indeed.

davetherave's picture
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davetherave Saturday, 26 Feb 2022 at 8:15am

@mowgli, how you sunny coast crew going up there? I was supposed to be in Pelican Waters this weekend minding my twin nephews, but obviously weather not allowing it. Sending you all my best energies. Although this system heading my way Sunday as well apparently.

davetherave's picture
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davetherave Saturday, 26 Feb 2022 at 10:32pm

@Batfink, Good vibes to you as well my friend.It can be easy to see the dysfunction and hypocrisy all around us, but it is also important to own up to those same tendencies we all have. I am well acquainted with my hypocrisy and dysfunction and love them like a larrikin although unwitting child. But I no longer allow them free reign because it is obvious they are unaware of the interrelationship of all and the absolute correlation between cause and effect, just not on an individual scale, but on a community scale, a landmass scale and a planetary scale. All energies work in combination within the polarities of dormant to active. Donweather asks Craig about evaporation and thinks maybe it's air temperature or sea surface temperature, obviously it's both, how can it not be. I remember Mitchvg asking me how undersea ocean vents could influence ocean and air temperatures, how could they not? I run into a friend today who vented about being indecisive about going to Canberra to take part in these rallies. She feels she has to to stand up for what she stands for. Good on her. But on closer questioning, she hates bus trips, can't sleep on a bus, can't stay where she want's to stay and can't really afford to go. So I asked her, how that made her feel, she replied anxious. So I invited her to see that her base state of being was anxiousness and is that how she wanted to live and imagine if everyone based their choices like this, would she like to live in a community like that!!! Little wonder we are where we are. WE are human beings, not doings. If you seek change, be it, before you do it. Our climate changes are just reflections of our inner turmoil. As Craig highlights, temperatures are a rising, but so can the kindness you show to yourself and to others. Remember there are really no such things as problems, only opportunities. Be loving, it's the ultimate shortcut.

davetherave's picture
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davetherave Saturday, 26 Feb 2022 at 10:48pm

Before I get responses about no such things as problems, only opportunities, with all the heartache of war and floods and loss, there will be a huge outpouring of kindness and kinship. But wouldn't it be great if humankind were consistent with this before the shit hits the fan, rather than after it. Maybe, I am an idealist, or an idiot, but I love my human family and rather than being nice to each other just at Christmas, why don't we do it daily. Try it, it just may change your life for the better.

Baconeater's picture
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Baconeater Monday, 28 Feb 2022 at 7:05pm

Hey Craig with all this rain an La Niña and the east coast having a mental run of waves…is Victorians have had to deal with a summer of se slop….when will things turn around? Looking ahead with Indo opening up, I’m guessing that La Niña also equals poor Indo surf season as the sw swells don’t get up high enough?

Craig's picture
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Craig Tuesday, 1 Mar 2022 at 10:49am

Yeah it wasn't a great year for Indo last owing to the lack of strong frontal activity and mid-latitude storms impacting Western Australia.

This Niña will linger well into autumn so it'll be a while it seems before the Southern Ocean fires up.

Baconeater's picture
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Baconeater Tuesday, 1 Mar 2022 at 11:04am

thanks Craig - bring on bloody El Nino!!!

Craig's picture
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Craig Tuesday, 1 Mar 2022 at 10:51am

As expected water temperatures along the East Coast are trending down owing to the release of thermal energy into the atmosphere (feeding rainfall), along with cooler floodwaters (which have just hit the Byron Bay buoy).

Redmond Clement's picture
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Redmond Clement Tuesday, 1 Mar 2022 at 4:36pm

I'm thinking the heaviness of rain water would slow the ocean currents down reducing their cooling capacity. I also noticed Madagascar has been getting really hammered too. Prayers for a brighter future.

Newart's picture
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Newart Tuesday, 1 Mar 2022 at 5:44pm

If you aren’t boosted you are a climate denier.

(Sorry guys, I’ve been reading comments on here for the last 8 years and I’ve commented once. I don’t have Facebook so I’m just trying to boost my social credit score before the WEF and WHO enslave us all. Happy Autumn!)

Newart's picture
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Newart Tuesday, 1 Mar 2022 at 5:44pm

If you aren’t boosted you are a climate denier.

(Sorry guys, I’ve been reading comments on here for the last 8 years and I’ve commented once. I don’t have Facebook so I’m just trying to boost my social credit score before the WEF and WHO enslave us all. Happy Autumn!)

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john.callahan Wednesday, 2 Mar 2022 at 1:40pm

Wondering if there is any climate data available from 1974, a year in which there was massive flooding in the same areas of SE Queensland and Northern New South Wales - to compare offshore water temperatures and La Niña influenced rainfall - does such data exist?

If there is data available that could confirm a La Niña episode for Q1 in 1974, anecdotal or empirical, that would be an interesting comparison with what has been happening in the areas affected for the past week, with heavy rainfall and the current unusually high sea temperatures for the offshore waters.

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suchas Wednesday, 2 Mar 2022 at 1:55pm
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suchas Wednesday, 2 Mar 2022 at 1:56pm

“ In what was a remarkable period, the month of January 1974 (Figure 3) stands out, with record rainfall and widespread flooding in central and eastern Australia. In area-average terms it is the wettest month on record across Australia, the NT and Queensland, while it is the second wettest over SA and NSW. Many of the major river systems in these areas were flooded during this time. Towards the end of January, tropical cyclone Wanda crossed the coast near Brisbane and exacerbated the flooding in Queensland, including one of Brisbane's worst floods on record. Several other cyclones caused flooding, such as Una in December 1973, Zoe in March 1974, David in January 1976, Beth and ex-tropical cyclone Alan in February 1976, and Dawn in March 1976 to name a few.”

john.callahan's picture
john.callahan's picture
john.callahan Wednesday, 2 Mar 2022 at 2:06pm

Great - thanks for that, the BOM is an excellent resource, funded by taxpayers : )

It doesn't say specifically if there was a La Niña episode in effect at the time, in Q1 1974 nor anything about offshore water temperatures, but there was definitely record-breaking rain in many of the same areas affected in 2022 -

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 2 Mar 2022 at 2:02pm

Yep, 1973/74 74/75 75/76 was the last triple-dip Niña event.

john.callahan's picture
john.callahan's picture
john.callahan Wednesday, 2 Mar 2022 at 2:10pm

Thanks, Craig - La Niña can; without much debate, be credited with increased rainfall on the east coast of Australia, through either cyclone impacts (1974) high offshore sea temperatures fuelling increased rainfall (2022) , or a combination of both.

Still a few weeks to go in cyclone season.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 2 Mar 2022 at 2:12pm

Indeed.

john.callahan's picture
john.callahan's picture
john.callahan Wednesday, 2 Mar 2022 at 2:15pm

According to the graphic, the La Niña episode of 73-74 was the strongest ever recorded in eastern Australia - and until 2022, the heaviest rainfall.

Tie all this in with weeks of great surf and you've got a "Best and Worst" case scenario -

sorrentoden's picture
sorrentoden's picture
sorrentoden Wednesday, 23 Mar 2022 at 9:46am

I don't buy it Craig - not when ya have a read of the ENMOD convention from 1976 mate....200 nations signed off on it back then, but it is obvious that some nations are using environmental modification techniques against other nations and even their own nation for a hidden agenda- ie agenda 2030.
Not everyone believes that farts causes global warming.

"It is the understanding of the Committee that the following examples are illustrative of
phenomena that could be caused by the use of environmental modification techniques as
defined in Article II of the Convention: earthquakes, tsunamis; an upset in the ecological
balance of a region; changes in weather patterns (clouds, precipitation, cyclones of various
types and tornadic storms); changes in climate patterns; changes in ocean currents; changes in
the state of the ozone layer; and changes in the state of the ionosphere.
It is further understood that all the phenomena listed above, when produced by military or any
other hostile use of environmental modification techniques, would result, or could reasonably be
expected to result, in widespread, long-lasting or severe destruction, damage or injury."

http://calledtorestore.com/cms/index.php/2022/03/05/northern-australia-p...

During the floods in QLD/NSW the surface potential energy on that part of Aust. was over 4000 joules per kilo the whole time...and on the northwest coast of Aust..as it still is. This is controlled heat from an aimed weapon. No where else on the planet is there such energy for the last month!
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=cape/or...

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 23 Mar 2022 at 9:54am

Eh?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 23 Mar 2022 at 10:12am

I'm not selling anything to buy..

You seem to be.. Do you mind outlining your evidence, observations and hypothesis regarding this thermal weapon.

Also that kilojoule chart is showing CAPE across the globe. This is the energy available for thunderstorm activity/instability.

sorrentoden's picture
sorrentoden's picture
sorrentoden Wednesday, 23 Mar 2022 at 10:33am

The theory is contained in the ENMOD document which all the nations signed off on back in 1976. I quoted it. These weapons can cause heating in the ionosphere and changes to climate including ocean currents etc. My observation during the last month is that the energy levels (CAPE) are through the roof on our north west and our north east coasts - nothing like it anywhere else on the globe during the same time period.
Read the document yourself
https://word-inside.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/ENMOD-full.pdf

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 23 Mar 2022 at 10:30am

What qualifications in meteorology do you have? Just wondering if you understand what CAPE is.

sorrentoden's picture
sorrentoden's picture
sorrentoden Wednesday, 23 Mar 2022 at 10:36am

none. Read the document I linked to.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 23 Mar 2022 at 10:43am

Righto.

You claim on your website "It would NOT SURPRISE Me if some of these weather radar domes in Japan are really weather weapons."

And, citing HAARP conspiricies:

"Do you remember the 2010 floods and the 2011 Cyclone Yasi mess? It was an attack by these weapons, same as now."

Of which, you then claim that Jesus told you about 'em too.

Your website seems to be a massive list of consipracy theories and religious fanaticism.

See ya.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Wednesday, 23 Mar 2022 at 10:06am

And we have another Space Cadet posting

sorrentoden's picture
sorrentoden's picture
sorrentoden Wednesday, 23 Mar 2022 at 10:37am

Absolutely Udo.

sorrentoden's picture
sorrentoden's picture
sorrentoden Wednesday, 23 Mar 2022 at 10:39am

anyway am going for a wave....the water's very warm today.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Wednesday, 23 Mar 2022 at 12:28pm

Hahaha, another one, well played.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 2 May 2022 at 4:10pm

Still so balmy and bath like across the southern NSW coastline.

2-3° above average in some regions..