Haleiwa Challenger Series - Early Forecast

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

Here we are, mid-November, and Hawaiian content is starting to fill the social media feeds, with one XL swell already making landfall.

Normally this would mean we're coming to the pointy end of the Championship Tour. The difference now, however, is that the World Title has already been run and won at Trestles, and the Triple Crown is again a digital affair.

Regardless, we've got one more Challenger Series event to run at Haleiwa and this could make or break those looking to qualify for next year's CT.

The event window kicks off next Friday the 26th of November and runs through until the 7th of December.

As mentioned, we've already seen an early season XL swell with Peahi roaring to life, yet La Niña years are more renowned for slower surf seasons in Hawaii, owing to the storm track remaining further north, not pushing down as close to the islands. This results in fewer large swells, but that's not to say there won't be any.

Looking at the forecast window and there are a couple of moderate to possibly large north-west swells on the cards for the waiting period along with favourable, easterly trade-winds.

There'll be plenty of activity spawning off Japan, with back to back continental lows pushing east, across Japan and further into the North Pacific while generating fetches of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds.

The first swell-generating system for the event window will strengthen north-west of Hawaii, directing a short-lived fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds through its northern swell window.

The first and currently strongest storm for the waiting period

The groundswell from this low should fill in the day before the start of the waiting period, reaching 6-8ft before easing from the 6ft range on Friday, the first day of the period.

Following this swell, there looks to be some down time between the next, with a slow decline in size through the following days.

The next swell should arrive later Monday and peak Tuesday, but be from a slightly weaker source. It'll be mid-period energy in the 4-5ft range, easing into the middle of the week. We may see a trough bring a swing in winds to the south-east on Tuesday (which is good for Haleiwa), then to the south-west (which isn't) on Wednesday as the swell eases.

Beyond this, weaker swells are due but keep an eye on the comments for running updates ahead of the event window next Friday.

Hawaii North Shore 16-day Forecast
Hawaii North Shore 16-day 
Charts

Comments

abc-od's picture
abc-od's picture
abc-od Thursday, 18 Nov 2021 at 2:29pm

" the World Title has already been run and won at Trestles"

Until I read that I'd totally forgotten about it. It really takes the excitement out of the coming Hawaii season.

NickT's picture
NickT's picture
NickT Thursday, 18 Nov 2021 at 5:50pm

Yeah it's weird, no talk about a title race, not much hype. I will definitely be tuning in though, I have feeling if they don't get a lot of views and they lose the main sponsor again that the WSL might go under next year

Shaggydagz's picture
Shaggydagz's picture
Shaggydagz Thursday, 18 Nov 2021 at 9:12pm

It's over, they blew it changing the event's schedule.. No one caes
Pipe was and should be the pinnacle, Imagine life without Tom Carroll's "The Snap"
Pro surfing has taken a dive

nextswell's picture
nextswell's picture
nextswell Thursday, 18 Nov 2021 at 8:13pm

It feels like Xmas when the Pipe contest starts. At least JJF will be surfing Halewia. A quality wave but not the same. Geez the peanuts running the WSL.

belly's picture
belly's picture
belly Thursday, 18 Nov 2021 at 8:46pm

Lots of heats to get through at a relatively fickle wave and a shortish waiting period. This seems to be a problem with CS events.

benjis babe's picture
benjis babe's picture
benjis babe Friday, 19 Nov 2021 at 7:00am

can't wait Haleiwa pumps, love watching this wave, always remember wade shredding the wave apart and qualifying..bring back power surfing

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Friday, 19 Nov 2021 at 8:09am

Its really strange feeling the title is done and dusted to be honest
I almost dont know who won.
Really looking forward to Haleiwa hope it pumps one of the best
high performance big wave spots on the planet.

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy Friday, 19 Nov 2021 at 9:05am

The switch to an online tripple crown is the real travesty - used to love watching big sunset :(

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 19 Nov 2021 at 10:14am

Looks like we've got a slight upgrade regarding the first swell generating system. It looks a touch more prolonged as well.

It'll peak the day before but offer chunky surf into the start of the waiting period.

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Friday, 19 Nov 2021 at 12:42pm

I actually really enjoy the final QS event with qualification on the line for the competitors. Unlike the CT final...its guaranteed to have drama and suspense and life changing outcomes for those on the bubble.

eel's picture
eel's picture
eel Friday, 19 Nov 2021 at 1:16pm

The CT final also has life changing outcomes for those on the bubble.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Friday, 19 Nov 2021 at 1:35pm

Massive bubble this year too crg with the challenger series format. Only 4 events and 10K points for a win - pretty much anybody in the top 100 can qualify for the CT with a win at Haliewa... https://www.worldsurfleague.com/athletes/tour/mcs

gragagan's picture
gragagan's picture
gragagan Friday, 19 Nov 2021 at 5:12pm

Pretty funny was bored late last night so clicked on the wsl site, noticed the Brazilian Saquarema qs was on so thought I'd watch a bit. The girls were on, not much action in the water, and guess who was on the beach getting ready for the next heat? Everyones favourite step-daddy Charlie Medina, with Gabby's sister (Sophia?). Who looks exactly like Gab but with long hair. Charlie was his usual intense self in the pre-heat pep talk. Can't see her being the next Gab though, looks like she's still learning to surf. Fully sponsored though, Rip Curl plus more. Only watched for 5 mins, it was like watching a learn to surf school almost haha

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 19 Nov 2021 at 8:30pm

Agree on comments above that its a bit off that the title isn't decided at pipe. Having said that, they've now slotted the masters into THE prime time if year for proper epic pipe. Think of all those Volcom comps. I guess its a tradeoff...hard to crown a chanp in January (is it really?). Also, the chicks are gonna be making their WCT pipeline debut this year..in prime pipe conditions. Theres alot to look forward to. Just hopefully never trestles to decide a champ again!! Its gotta be a real wave.
Looking forward to 1st day of haleiwa comp.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 23 Nov 2021 at 7:06am

We've got a further upgrade in the swell for the opening day.

The swell producing low has developed and is stronger than forecast last week, but most of the energy will arrive before the event kicks off. Building strongly late Wednesday and peaking Thursday.

There's some large reinforcing mid-period energy due for Friday though with 8-10ft sets due through the morning, easing gradually through the day and back to the 4-6ft range Saturday.

Following this smaller surf in the 3-5ft is expected ahead of possibly one more pulse of stronger swell into the end of the waiting period.

evosurfer's picture
evosurfer's picture
evosurfer Tuesday, 23 Nov 2021 at 3:32pm

8-10ft Haleiwa near perfect maximum size super heavy but one
of the most rip able big wave spots on the planet. Im excited.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean Tuesday, 23 Nov 2021 at 10:01pm

I don't really watch qs comps, so it feels like it's been forever since I have watched a surf contest.
Remember the waves haven't changed.
The surf styles have though, will the younger generation have the gusto at 8_10 foot Haleiwa....

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 2:29pm

Any updates on the swell? Likely to kick off tomorrow Aus time?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 2:31pm

Yep, heard it was solid this arvo on the North Shore..

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 3:13pm
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 9:16pm

Geez that last bomb spat its guts out! That dude who walked past looked way undergunned for Sunset..a big wide square tail too. But I guess they all ride shortys in maxing surf now

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 2:44pm

Sick. Bring it on!

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 2:48pm

I can't wait...I'm fizzing for DEC and Hawaii comps. Van's triple crown especially.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 26 Nov 2021 at 7:38pm
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Saturday, 27 Nov 2021 at 11:07pm


Pumping Sunset today. What a bloody wave. Tip of the hat to anyone in the SN community that has had the privilege and guts to paddle out and freefall on that lurching elevator drop. What a beauty!!