Haleiwa Challenger Series - Early Forecast
Here we are, mid-November, and Hawaiian content is starting to fill the social media feeds, with one XL swell already making landfall.
Normally this would mean we're coming to the pointy end of the Championship Tour. The difference now, however, is that the World Title has already been run and won at Trestles, and the Triple Crown is again a digital affair.
Regardless, we've got one more Challenger Series event to run at Haleiwa and this could make or break those looking to qualify for next year's CT.
The event window kicks off next Friday the 26th of November and runs through until the 7th of December.
As mentioned, we've already seen an early season XL swell with Peahi roaring to life, yet La Niña years are more renowned for slower surf seasons in Hawaii, owing to the storm track remaining further north, not pushing down as close to the islands. This results in fewer large swells, but that's not to say there won't be any.
Looking at the forecast window and there are a couple of moderate to possibly large north-west swells on the cards for the waiting period along with favourable, easterly trade-winds.
There'll be plenty of activity spawning off Japan, with back to back continental lows pushing east, across Japan and further into the North Pacific while generating fetches of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds.
The first swell-generating system for the event window will strengthen north-west of Hawaii, directing a short-lived fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds through its northern swell window.
The groundswell from this low should fill in the day before the start of the waiting period, reaching 6-8ft before easing from the 6ft range on Friday, the first day of the period.
Following this swell, there looks to be some down time between the next, with a slow decline in size through the following days.
The next swell should arrive later Monday and peak Tuesday, but be from a slightly weaker source. It'll be mid-period energy in the 4-5ft range, easing into the middle of the week. We may see a trough bring a swing in winds to the south-east on Tuesday (which is good for Haleiwa), then to the south-west (which isn't) on Wednesday as the swell eases.
Beyond this, weaker swells are due but keep an eye on the comments for running updates ahead of the event window next Friday.