Billabong Pipe Masters Forecast Update

Craig Brokensha
Swellnet Analysis

The Billabong Pipeline Masters Trials kicked off today in great conditions - NW groundswell, light trades - and the good run looks set to continue. We've got a couple of excellent days of surf ahead, followed by an XXL groundswell that could see the cbdMD Jaws Big Wave Championships get the green light - and make Trials winner and defending Jaws champion Billy Kemper a busy lad.

As talked about in the early forecast last week, a reinforcing mid-period NW swell is expected tomorrow to 6-8ft with great morning east-southeast offshores, shifting to north-east trades into the afternoon. That prediction hasn't changed.

However, moving into Wednesday and Thursday, our NW groundswell has been upgraded to an XXL swell event from a more N/NW direction.

A significant storm forming to the south-east of the Kamchatka Peninsula has already generated a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW winds in Hawaii's far north-western swell window - see image above - and the progression is now swinging closer to Hawaii than what was originally forecast.

We'll see an elongated fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds project through Hawaii's swell window with an embedded fetch of storm-force winds moving in on top of this large and active sea state.

What we'll see is the surf building rapidly through Wednesday to XL size, ahead of an XXL N/NW groundswell for Thursday morning, easing steadily through the day.

Size-wise, Pipe will be great Wednesday morning with clean 8ft+ surf groomed by easterly offshores, only shifting east-northeast into the afternoon as sets push towards 10-12ft+.

Come Thursday it'll be too big for Pipe and washing through from Third Reef but this should be great for Peahi, with 18-20ft surf, with the odd bigger cleanup set, easing off steadily through the day. However, winds are an issue, as they'll be fresh from the east in the morning, becoming strong through the day. This may be the limiting factor in green-lighting the event, though a decision is due soon.

Also it's worth noting the wave models are combining the existing XL swell with the new long-period energy and over-representing the size at a little.

Back on the North Shore, the wind will be moderate to fresh easterly, tending east-northeast trades with the XXL easing swell.

Friday is now looking more favourable regarding local winds across the North Shore as the swell continues to ease from 10ft+ out of the N/NW with strong east-northeast trades.

By the time the weekend comes around we'll be looking at smaller leftovers and lay days ahead of another large long-period NW groundswell due Tuesday next week. This will be followed by a similar-sized swell Thursday afternoon.

The source of these swells will be back to back lows spawning off the Kuril Islands, north-east of Japan, and at this stage we're looking at surf to 8ft+ with favourable winds, but we'll continue to follow this in the comments below.

North Shore 16-day Forecast Graph
North Shore WAMs

Comments

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Tuesday, 10 Dec 2019 at 2:09pm

Will Billy have a bit of internal contest conflict on his hands?

Chance to become a pipe master and or triple crown champ vs winning a 4th Peahi, scoring 20 foot waves.

What would you do?

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono commented Tuesday, 10 Dec 2019 at 2:23pm

Probably be able to do both wouldn't he?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 10 Dec 2019 at 2:24pm

Yeah they're mutually exclusive?

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Tuesday, 10 Dec 2019 at 2:49pm

No potential of running on the same day though?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 10 Dec 2019 at 2:52pm

Probably not, it'll be maxing Pipe all day.

rj-davey's picture
rj-davey's picture
rj-davey commented Tuesday, 10 Dec 2019 at 4:36pm

Presumably any mavericks aficionados might be feeling a little torn as well

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 10 Dec 2019 at 4:41pm

Inside info is that Jaws is Green!

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope commented Tuesday, 10 Dec 2019 at 5:14pm

Cool! Billy called it in his post heat interview.

Ride on

billie's picture
billie's picture
billie commented Tuesday, 10 Dec 2019 at 9:47pm

I hope it's semi out of control early Friday and that they get sent out and Italo wins by scrapping for 8 foot double up inside psycho bombs.

Billie

offshoreozzie's picture
offshoreozzie's picture
offshoreozzie commented Wednesday, 11 Dec 2019 at 4:46am

Jaws officially a go!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 11 Dec 2019 at 5:05am

Noice, I've also heard that they'll try and run Pipe Thursday on the maxing day if they can, exciting!

thedrip's picture
thedrip's picture
thedrip commented Wednesday, 11 Dec 2019 at 10:27am

Bring back the 80s when they sent those tour boys out in whatever got thrown at them.

Moving Margie’s pro to NP when it gets big is ridiculous. Make them ride a seven footer (OMG!).

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 12 Dec 2019 at 1:05pm

Here we go..


goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Thursday, 12 Dec 2019 at 1:37pm

How’s the wind looking for it Craig?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 12 Dec 2019 at 1:45pm

Great early, moderate E/SE, but swinging E-E/NE and strengthening to 15-20ft through the day.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Thursday, 12 Dec 2019 at 2:17pm

How dangerous would it be out Pipe atm ...100 plus surfers..macking sets ...dusk
faark that..Explore.org - Pipe cam

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 13 Dec 2019 at 2:18pm

Wow!!!

 

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Friday, 13 Dec 2019 at 2:29pm

Just saw the wipeouts in slow mo,missed it this morning live,but Jamies and Kks were as bad as they get ...and they survived.......unbelievable......congrats to both of them and all the competitors.

simba

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Friday, 13 Dec 2019 at 4:10pm
Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono commented Friday, 13 Dec 2019 at 4:40pm

 

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Saturday, 14 Dec 2019 at 8:05pm

Is pipe likely to finish in okish 6 foot style waves rather than pumping??

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 16 Dec 2019 at 11:59am

Nah swell looking solid! 8-10ft range!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Monday, 16 Dec 2019 at 1:07pm

Tues Hawaii time?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 16 Dec 2019 at 1:08pm

Tomorrow and Tuesday.

Be likely on hold early for a little bit as well kicks in! Rapid jump in size. So I'd call running tomorrow and Tuesday

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Monday, 16 Dec 2019 at 1:13pm

Your swell model output looks to be combining two swells tomorrow lunch time so the real swell doesn’t look to fill in until the mid-late afternoon? Will they run Round of 16 tomorrow even if they can’t finish it all tomorrow?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 16 Dec 2019 at 1:18pm

There's not too much combining going on there compared to say what we see in Indo. Only an easing 1m swell in the mix. I'd expect they'd hopefully be seeing sets to 5-6ft by midday. We'll see.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Wednesday, 18 Dec 2019 at 12:16pm

So when's it run next ?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 18 Dec 2019 at 12:26pm

Has to be Thursday, doubt they run tomorrow with the smaller, easing swell..

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather commented Wednesday, 18 Dec 2019 at 2:19pm

Why didn’t they run it today?

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg commented Wednesday, 18 Dec 2019 at 2:30pm

The last swell washed a heap of sand onto the end of the reef...basically turned it into a closeout. There hoping it cleans out and will run on Fri morning our time.

I'm not cheap,
But I'm free.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono commented Wednesday, 18 Dec 2019 at 2:50pm

I saw a few sets today on explore.org that looked like Pipe was trying to do it's thing:



Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 18 Dec 2019 at 3:31pm

Coupla couplas. 

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Wednesday, 18 Dec 2019 at 4:44pm

The sand moves quickly there hey. Still a chance for the dream finish