Forecast: Hawaiian Pro at Haleiwa

Stu Nettle
Swellnet Analysis

There’s just a day to go until the Hawaiian Pro begins at Haleiwa - the first contest of the Triple Crown.

Last week, Swellnet reported that John John had entered the Triple Crown, a fact confirmed by Kaipo Guerrero on the Vans Pro webcast and also the Hawaiian Pro heat sheet which noted one J. Florence among the competitors.

Today, however, the heat draw was, err, drawn, and J. Florence is nowhere to be seen. He may have posted a video of himself surfing Pipe, but he won’t be at Haleiwa. 

Gossip out of the way, what’s the surf going to be like?

The organisers won’t have much to begin with. The opening day - Wednesday the 13th - will almost certainly be a layday with 2 to maybe 3 feet of inconsistent NW swell under light trades. If it was the other end of the waiting period, the organisers would jump on it, however with plenty of swell to come there’s every chance they’ll let it lay lady lay.

A large low that formed immediately south of the Aleutians yesterday is currently deepening and moving towards the American west coast with sideband energy brushing Hawaii. It’ll be followed by a smaller low that forms further west. Together they’ll provide a five day run of moderate to large (Hawaiian scale) waves.

On day two, Thursday, competitors will wake to 4-5 foot waves from the N/NW that’ll increase in size all day topping out at a solid 8ft by close of business. Winds will be light from the SE, though without established trades there’s a chance passing storms could swing winds temporarily onshore. Wind squalls notwithstanding, with a strong, increasing swell and light winds it should be a great day of competition.

By day three, Friday, the swell will be on a slow decline from the first storm, easing from around 8ft. However, of greater importance is a trough moving through the islands that’ll swing the wind towards the south, southwest, and then west. It won’t be particularly strong but it will be straight onshore.

Will the contest be on? Maybe!

Parko, reigning champ of the Hawaiian Pro (Heff/WSL)

By Saturday, the trough will have cleared, a new tradewind cycle will begin, and it’ll coincide with the arrival of a good northwest swell from the second low pressure system. The day will start at 4-5 feet and again increase all through the day, topping out this time at 8-10ft. Expect a bit of bump with the trades but otherwise big and rippable Haleiwa.

Sunday, day 5, will see a continuation of conditions: NE trades and approximately 10 feet of swell on a very slow decline.

By Monday, day 6, which is the halfway point of the waiting period, we’ll be well and truly on the backside of the swell event with approximately 6 feet of swell dropping to 3-4 by close of play. Tradewinds are expected all day.

We’ll update and changes in conditions in the comments below.

Click for Swellnet's North Shore forecast

Comments

boxright's picture
boxright's picture
boxright commented Wednesday, 13 Nov 2019 at 4:46pm

It's better than pretty good I'd say. Except for John John being out.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming commented Wednesday, 13 Nov 2019 at 4:47pm

IMHO this should be on the main event calendar more chance of a show down in Hawaii, its a contestable wave suits both power surfing and new school, chance of barrels ...maybe ditch Portugal for this.

billie's picture
billie's picture
billie commented Wednesday, 13 Nov 2019 at 8:00pm

good call bro!

Billie

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Wednesday, 13 Nov 2019 at 4:52pm

can't believe I don't know this, but how long does it take them to get through a QS comp?
seems like there a million people in it.

Lord Humongous's picture
Lord Humongous's picture
Lord Humongous commented Wednesday, 13 Nov 2019 at 7:48pm

Four man heats all the way through to the semis where it goes man on man.
63 heats.
3 days if 20 minute heats.
3 1/2 days for 25 minute heats.
I think Hawaii has a tools down rule by 4pm from memory.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond commented Wednesday, 13 Nov 2019 at 4:53pm

Sounds sick. Love seeing the comp here when it scores some swell.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Wednesday, 13 Nov 2019 at 4:54pm

128 starters. 7 rounds. 63 heats including finals.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Wednesday, 13 Nov 2019 at 6:01pm

look at that blob, I wonder if any isolated spots on the Aleutian Island fire up.

Anyone GoFundMe and head over!

I am the bone

mibs-oner's picture
mibs-oner's picture
mibs-oner commented Wednesday, 13 Nov 2019 at 10:01pm
Garryh's picture
Garryh's picture
Garryh commented Thursday, 14 Nov 2019 at 6:25pm

Wow. Bears?

WinterSwells

seahound's picture
seahound's picture
seahound commented Wednesday, 13 Nov 2019 at 7:51pm

Nice analysis Stu. Great there is going to be some testing waves. Looking forward to seeing how the first leg of this Triple Crown unfolds, and how the newer young guns fare against the experienced campaigners with vital QS ratings points and careers at stake and so on.

Älskarhavet's picture
Älskarhavet's picture
Älskarhavet commented Wednesday, 13 Nov 2019 at 8:32pm

Is Swellnet going to be streaming this comp? This is one I would definately watch, some great weekend viewing!

old man of the sea's picture
old man of the sea's picture
old man of the sea commented Sunday, 17 Nov 2019 at 10:43am

Question - how is Kyuss King, currently in position 142 on the QS seeded directly into Round 3 (in a heat with Jordy) when surfers in the top 20 on the QS are surfing in Round 2?

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Thursday, 21 Nov 2019 at 9:44am

Sponsor wildcard.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Thursday, 21 Nov 2019 at 9:43am

Yet another layday today, but tomorrow's swell is running to schedule. In fact, it should start hitting later this afternoon and surfers will wake up tomorrow to waves around 8-12ft from the NW.

The fly in the ointment is the wind with strong trades due for the remainder of the waiting period. Haleiwa is more exposed to sideshore wind then most N Shore spots so it'll be bumpy.

It won't be perfect but it'll be big and gnarly.

belly's picture
belly's picture
belly commented Thursday, 21 Nov 2019 at 9:48am

Like :-) - I was looking for this thread, got distracted, and then voila, an update :-)

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Thursday, 21 Nov 2019 at 12:37pm

Thanks Stu. A big test for Jack Robbo coming up. His heat is stacked.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Thursday, 21 Nov 2019 at 1:06pm

I'm betting he'll shine