Hawaiian North Shore: From zero to one hundred
After a cracking pre-season swell in early October, the Hawaiian North Shore has been fairly quiet with their northwest swell window closed shut. Instead they've had a few weeks of sketchy northerly swells, however that's all about to change this weekend.
Fresh after Parko's win at the Hawaiian Pro and the groundbreaking big wave surfing at pumping Nazare, there's an XL swell inbound for the Hawaiian Islands next week.
With a lot of buzz around the Big Wave World Tour, the WSL will be looking to carry this momentum into another BWT event.
Current forecasts have back to back low pressure systems spawning south-east of the Kamchatka Peninsula, the extension of land between Japan and the Aleutian Islands.
The first low will produce an active sea state and large NW groundswell for Sunday (in time for the start of the Vans World Cup at Sunset and Beachwaver Maui Pro at Honolua Bay) ahead of a much stronger multi-staged low, with embedded fetches of severe-gale to storm-force due to slowly project east-southeast towards Hawaii. The system will reach within 1,000km of the islands.
Early indications are for an XL NW groundswell to fill in on late Monday, peak overnight and ease Tuesday across Peahi. The direction isn't ideal with more northerly swells generally performing better, and also the overnight peak in the swell might throw a spanner in the works.
Winds are the clincher, especially with the reef positioned a fair way offshore. At present, GFS, the American forecast model, has perfect winds, though the more reliable European version has less favourable and gusty E/NE trades developing into the afternoon on Tuesday.
We'll continue to monitor the forecast over the coming days as well as the alert level of the WSL.