Hawaiian North Shore: From zero to one hundred

Craig Brokensha
Swellnet Analysis

After a cracking pre-season swell in early October, the Hawaiian North Shore has been fairly quiet with their northwest swell window closed shut. Instead they've had a few weeks of sketchy northerly swells, however that's all about to change this weekend.

Fresh after Parko's win at the Hawaiian Pro and the groundbreaking big wave surfing at pumping Nazare, there's an XL swell inbound for the Hawaiian Islands next week.

With a lot of buzz around the Big Wave World Tour, the WSL will be looking to carry this momentum into another BWT event.

Current forecasts have back to back low pressure systems spawning south-east of the Kamchatka Peninsula, the extension of land between Japan and the Aleutian Islands.

The first low will produce an active sea state and large NW groundswell for Sunday (in time for the start of the Vans World Cup at Sunset and Beachwaver Maui Pro at Honolua Bay) ahead of a much stronger multi-staged low, with embedded fetches of severe-gale to storm-force due to slowly project east-southeast towards Hawaii. The system will reach within 1,000km of the islands.

Early indications are for an XL NW groundswell to fill in on late Monday, peak overnight and ease Tuesday across Peahi. The direction isn't ideal with more northerly swells generally performing better, and also the overnight peak in the swell might throw a spanner in the works.

Winds are the clincher, especially with the reef positioned a fair way offshore. At present, GFS, the American forecast model, has perfect winds, though the more reliable European version has less favourable and gusty E/NE trades developing into the afternoon on Tuesday.

We'll continue to monitor the forecast over the coming days as well as the alert level of the WSL.

Article updated.

Comments

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Wednesday, 21 Nov 2018 at 2:41pm

What's that mean for Sunset? Waiting period kicks off on the 25th of Nov.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 21 Nov 2018 at 2:46pm

Should be great with the building swell to an easy 10ft through the day. It'll be bumpy into the afternoon though with sea breezes.

It'll be touch and go regarding being too big Monday morning, and becoming more manageable from Wednesday again. The swells should light up Honolua Bay though for the women.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Wednesday, 21 Nov 2018 at 3:04pm

"The swells should light up Honolua Bay though for the women."
Awesome. Such an epic wave.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 21 Nov 2018 at 3:06pm

Not the most ideal direction as it's fairly protected from NW swells but the size and period of the swell should overcome this somewhat.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Wednesday, 21 Nov 2018 at 3:52pm

Sometimes with really west swells kauai can shadow the other islands. Significantly decreasing swell size , almost completely blocking swell from reaching the other islands.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 21 Nov 2018 at 3:58pm

Yep. These swells are a better NW, rather than those west ones that come from Japan and get fully blocked.

The latest updates have come in and I think this NW direction and the fact the storm is strongest furthest away will see them pass on this swell.

There's also a monster low forecast south of Alaska and large swell for Mavericks. Watch this space.

Tim Bonython's picture
Tim Bonython's picture
Tim Bonython commented Wednesday, 21 Nov 2018 at 7:28pm

I wish. Beam me up someone.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Thursday, 22 Nov 2018 at 12:27am

Stuck at Nazare.....?

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Thursday, 22 Nov 2018 at 1:45am

Crowd fund ?

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher commented Thursday, 22 Nov 2018 at 1:23am

Goes without saying that we all thank Tim for sharing those monumental shots of Nazare.
Front row seats on Tim's up close & personal Big Wave Tour...(Simply breathtaking)
Swellnet & Tim make the perfect team. Nazare award of the highest order to all. Legends!

Tobiasl's picture
Tobiasl's picture
Tobiasl commented Thursday, 22 Nov 2018 at 9:33am

Tim you got a fan!

Tobias

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 22 Nov 2018 at 8:23am

Well looking at the updates this morning and the swell is back on track.

The storm is forecast to be more consolidated and maintain storm-force core wind speeds while projecting down towards Hawaii, generating a very significant long-period NW groundswell.

It's also due to arrive earlier and winds are looking good for Peahi still. They could run two half days.

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops commented Thursday, 22 Nov 2018 at 9:42am

Too big for Sunset?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 22 Nov 2018 at 9:44am

Yeah way too big!

Pops's picture
Pops's picture
Pops commented Thursday, 22 Nov 2018 at 9:59am

Reckon there might be a couple of spots round the west side that'd be firing then...

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Thursday, 22 Nov 2018 at 12:26pm

Think they will run?

Tobiasl's picture
Tobiasl's picture
Tobiasl commented Thursday, 22 Nov 2018 at 9:35am

Love watching Jaws, such a sick, scary monster of a wave, hope the winds are favorable.
Go Bierke!!!!

Tobias

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Thursday, 22 Nov 2018 at 8:50pm

Cameras are on the ground waiting......any yellow lights yet?
Mavs also?
They could wrap this world tour up in two weeks.....

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 22 Nov 2018 at 1:07pm

Surely some kind of word soon. Everything is looking 10-4.

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba commented Thursday, 22 Nov 2018 at 2:36pm

Craig whats the call for the girls event?

simba

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 22 Nov 2018 at 2:49pm

Sunday's will likely be too small until later in the day, but they should run Monday before it gets too big and then Tuesday through the end of the week as the swell dies.

Latest North Shore Forecast notes here: XL NW groundswell inbound

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 22 Nov 2018 at 2:51pm

Just heard word that WSL are pretty keen to pull the trigger on this swell, so watch this space.

Also the legend Pat Caldwell's synopsis..

"The third source is modelled to form as a low pressure off northern Japan late 11/21. Models show it moving east and merging into the nucleus of the Aleutian low near the Date Line within 11/22-23. This pattern turns into a massive cyclone gyre filling most of the central north Pacific 11/23-25, with central pressure below 960 mb and a slow eastward shift of the low center near 50N from the Date Line to 160W within 11/24-26.

Surface winds are modelled to kick up to severe gale to storm force, with pockets to hurricane force, over a wide, long fetch over the 300-320 degree band that should be over 1500 nm long by early 11/24 as it crosses the Date Line with a large area of seas within 40-50 feet. The head of the fetch should reach to within 1000 nm by late 11/24 over the 310-330 degree band. By this stage, the fetch will be acting upon existing seas from the second source aforementioned, giving greater surf potential locally. Models show a weakening trend to the winds and less aim at Hawaii as the low pressure fills 11/25-27.

Surf locally is predicted to ramp up rapidly in the wee hours before Monday dawn to extra large heights, meaning high enough for breakers on outer reefs. Surf is predicted to peak mid Monday from 300-330 degrees in the giant category, meaning zones of high refraction on outer reefs surpassing 40'."

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Thursday, 22 Nov 2018 at 8:53pm

Angle looks good for the bowl section at jaws .....here we go again ....yellow light yet?

kavachi's picture
kavachi's picture
kavachi commented Thursday, 22 Nov 2018 at 10:21pm

.......Peahi west bowls and Billy Kemper for the win. again

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Saturday, 24 Nov 2018 at 8:04am

Yellow light!

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Saturday, 24 Nov 2018 at 5:46pm

Go Russ. Will you guys be streaming it?

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Saturday, 24 Nov 2018 at 6:05pm

You betcha.

batfink's picture
batfink's picture
batfink commented Monday, 26 Nov 2018 at 11:17am

And???????????

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 26 Nov 2018 at 11:23am

Monday Hawaii time, so tomorrow our time.

batfink's picture
batfink's picture
batfink commented Monday, 26 Nov 2018 at 12:27pm

Thanks Craig. Found my way to the Vans World Cup stream and saw it there.

Only getting to watch it because I'm home sick today. May have to be sick again tomorrow I think.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 26 Nov 2018 at 12:32pm

Too right!

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Saturday, 24 Nov 2018 at 6:06pm

Beautiful