North Pacific roars to life

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

It's lain dormant for the best part of six months but this week the North Pacific has roared back to life.

On Saturday Japan will be hit by a second destructive Super Typhoon in less than a week, while on Friday Hawaii's North Shore will see the first large swell of the season make landfall.

Super Typhoon Vongfong – one of the better names in recent times – dropped to an estimated central pressure of 908hPa yesterday and is currently producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 150 knots while gusting up to 180 knots (333 kilometres/hour).

As you could imagine very large swells are being produced by Vongfong. At present they're impacting Taiwan, the Northern Philippines, and the southern shores of Japan, with the Okinawa Prefecture expected to bear the brunt of the Super Typhoon as it passes over the islands while weakening during the weekend.

For switched on surfers in the region there'll be options at funky, out-of-the-way places protected from the brunt of the swell and winds into Sunday and early next week.

At the same time as this activity in the Western North Pacific, the first proper winter storm has been winding up in the far North Pacific below the Aleutian Islands. A fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW winds has set in motion a large long-period NW groundswell aimed at Hawaii's North Shore. The swell is expected to arrive through Friday and peak during the afternoon with sets in the 8-10ft+ range expected under fresh E/NE trades.

During the second phase of the storm a better fetch of severe-gales was aimed towards the Northern Californian coastline, generating a large W/NW groundswell that should see Mavericks breaking on Sunday.

North Shore Forecast
Okinawa South Forecast

Comments

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 9 Oct 2014 at 4:20pm

Looked like VongFong took a perfect track for the Phillos/Taiwan. Any reports from there Craig?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 9 Oct 2014 at 4:28pm

No nothing yet, will keep an eye and ear out.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Thursday, 9 Oct 2014 at 4:26pm

What about our correspondent in the region?

Calling Clifton Evers...

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Thursday, 9 Oct 2014 at 5:15pm

908hPa yikes.....whats the lowest ever recorded out of interest?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 9 Oct 2014 at 5:19pm

Here we go Mick, from Wiki..

"In the available records, a total of 70 tropical cyclones attained a pressure of less than 900 hPa (mbar) (26.56 inHg), most of which occurred in the Western North Pacific Ocean. The strongest tropical cyclone recorded worldwide, as measured by minimum central pressure, was Typhoon Tip, which reached a pressure of 870 hPa (25.69 inHg) on October 12, 1979."

floyd's picture
floyd's picture
floyd Thursday, 9 Oct 2014 at 6:06pm

what about PNG?

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 9 Oct 2014 at 6:30pm

Pretty early in the season for the Hawaii storm/swell yeah? Signs El Nino may not be fully dead just yet?

a360's picture
a360's picture
a360 Thursday, 9 Oct 2014 at 6:45pm

P-Pass !!

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Friday, 10 Oct 2014 at 10:11am

Great photo of Typhoon Vongforn taken by an orbiting astronaut:

https://twitter.com/astro_reid/status/520165368275697664/photo/1

wellymon's picture
wellymon's picture
wellymon Friday, 10 Oct 2014 at 11:16am

Awesome photo from Mr Wiseman

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 10 Oct 2014 at 11:06am

Floyd the system is just a bit too far north-west to be of any benifit to PNG and a360, P-Pass needs those storms that bomb off Japan and won't receive much size at all.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Friday, 10 Oct 2014 at 12:53pm

Surfline pipe cam not showing third reef breaking.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Friday, 10 Oct 2014 at 1:22pm

Sean Davey says otherwise but it's hard to argue with a surf cam.

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Friday, 10 Oct 2014 at 1:45pm

Early season swell has phantoms big with near drownings

davetherave's picture
davetherave's picture
davetherave Friday, 10 Oct 2014 at 9:39pm

caml, sorry for having a dig at u- but my time here i have seen so much money "spent" on the next big thing. Can't remember where I first saw footage of u, but u were comfortable. U may not want to be known, but bro, fuck i have seen butto, china, and all other hotties, but none possess your composure. Sorry to try to suggest what u should do, but as i said, i used to surf snapper on all full moons with swells and i was trying to play out my fantasy with you as my avatar- sorry mate, but u r as peaceful as wayne deane

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Saturday, 11 Oct 2014 at 12:23am

Is that u kamikaze my jap fan ?

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Saturday, 11 Oct 2014 at 12:32am

either that or Daves' been on the source hard ......
and out pop's " his Japanese alter ego " ......
I know a few people including myself that try to pass off " night Guy " as an alter ego ... heheh

davetherave's picture
davetherave's picture
davetherave Saturday, 11 Oct 2014 at 10:06pm
southey wrote:

either that or Daves' been on the source hard ......
and out pop's " his Japanese alter ego " ......
I know a few people including myself that try to pass off " night Guy " as an alter ego ... heheh

sorry boys, had a room full of would be wannabes who believed they should have been paid more by sponsors- i mention caml- who?????
nice one southey but no japanese alter ego' yoske little shit, just felt bad about trying to tell someone how to live their life- especially when this lot think they deserve so much- but boys me and best mate- surfed snapper for years on full moon
didnt want to mention him, but him on mal, with gloves, hated but charges, sorry if u guys think thread was juiced up, but sick of listening to whingers and would like to see guys who i believe deserve it- get helped= simple

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Saturday, 11 Oct 2014 at 12:46am

Fullmoon surfing & china & butto ?! Haha its good southey . Wat do u reckon with that wind sun ? Change thread p.s.

davetherave's picture
davetherave's picture
davetherave Saturday, 11 Oct 2014 at 10:10pm
caml wrote:

Fullmoon surfing & china & butto ?! Haha its good southey . Wat do u reckon with that wind sun ? Change thread p.s.

remember pulse- butto good, but china best i seen caml, surely u guys surf under full moon? last time i did it eleven in water- dangerous.

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey Saturday, 11 Oct 2014 at 12:55am

caml .

i'll text Stu , to get him to give you my number tomorrow . I can chat tomorrow . I don't want to publicly divulge too much info on why I think whatever about said region .

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Saturday, 11 Oct 2014 at 1:14am

Are the crowds bad in your area ? Night surfing ?? Craig has it cheers

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Saturday, 11 Oct 2014 at 1:16am

Mavericks forecast looking good for sunday at dawn . Sound the alarms

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Saturday, 11 Oct 2014 at 11:09pm

G-land at night is not easy . I have a favorite wave much easier . Never with crowd . Kudos to those who surf at night especially" ours " craziest night sesh ive seen

davetherave's picture
davetherave's picture
davetherave Saturday, 11 Oct 2014 at 11:24pm

did u surf g at night? u crazy bugger. no wonder u called caml= if so maybe u need upgrade to elephant

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 21 Oct 2014 at 5:53pm

Video of Nic Lamb grabbing a set from the hoards when the swell hit Mavs last Monday..

 

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Tuesday, 21 Oct 2014 at 6:08pm

No vid.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 21 Oct 2014 at 6:18pm

Really, wanna refresh.

mick-free's picture
mick-free's picture
mick-free Tuesday, 21 Oct 2014 at 6:28pm

got vid....geez thats crowded hey. Are jetskis allowed back into the Bay?

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Sunday, 23 Nov 2014 at 1:02pm

With pipe comp coming up hows the north pacific long range forecast looking
Just wondered if the weather patterns are any different this year to previous years that last system very intense.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 23 Nov 2014 at 11:17pm

Still a little far out, but the outlook from mid this week and next is dire. This could be a blessing, getting a small-flat spell out of the way early. Will have a closer look tomorrow.