Welcome Tropical Cyclone Ian

Craig Brokensha
Swellnet Analysis

Tropical Cyclone Ian is currently a category 1 system sitting just west of Fiji.

It initailly developed on January 2nd near Tonga and has meandered about the Lau Basin ever since.

Over the coming days it's expected to intensify while drifting south-east towards and possibly over Tonga.

TC Ian is only expected to reach category 2 status over the coming days and won't generate any swell for the Australian East Coast as it remains too small in scope and is a very large distance from the mainland.

Tonga on the other hand is expected to see large swell from the north and potentially a follow up swell from the south as the system drifts south in close proximity to the Polynesian island. The southern coasts of Fiji will also see medium to large levels of SE swell through this weekend.

Current long-range forecasts have Ian weakening once is drifts south of Tongan latitudes and then swept swiftly away to the east by a frontal system crossing New Zealand.

There's some indication we may see another tropical depression intensifying in the Vanuatu region in the wake of TC Ian. The swell from these developments would make more of an impact across the Australian region, but we'll keep a close eye on this.

Follow the Tongan West Coast forecast here or click the image below for the WAMs.

Comments

mibs-oner's picture
mibs-oner's picture
mibs-oner Tuesday, 7 Jan 2014 at 5:28pm

Shame about the west wind for ha'atafu. Went there a few years back and there's some super fun waves in the area

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Tuesday, 7 Jan 2014 at 5:59pm

Well, there are easterlies forecast for the morning.. albeit 25-30kts!

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump Wednesday, 8 Jan 2014 at 9:00am

Sounds like a very handsome cyclone

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 9 Jan 2014 at 1:34pm

Ian likely to reach Cat 4 status shortly. Shame he whisks away to the S/SE with no cradling high to his south!!!! :'(

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 9 Jan 2014 at 1:43pm

Wow, he is too!

And it's sticking to JWTC's forecasts from Tuesday.

No considerable swell for us, but the tropical developments in the wake of Ian are still positive.

SE Qld is certainly overdue!

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 9 Jan 2014 at 1:56pm

Craig wrote:

SE Qld is certainly overdue!


Please tell Huey this!!!
donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 10 Jan 2014 at 9:27am

Cat 4 this morning.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 10 Jan 2014 at 9:45am

Such a tiny system! After looking at the North Atlantic for the last few weeks - and the NW Pac before Xmas - it's a little underwhelming on OSCAT.

Still, this system may really create some major problems in Tonga. I hope they're prepared.

Samoa doesn't look like a great place to be right now either.. lashing winds and rain.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Friday, 10 Jan 2014 at 12:45pm
stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Friday, 10 Jan 2014 at 12:49pm

That's great Don. Wish I paid attention to that map when the 'storm known as Hercules' was doing its business.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 10 Jan 2014 at 12:56pm

Here's Hercules: http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/01/05/0000Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orth...

You can step back to archive data.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 10 Jan 2014 at 12:57pm
donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Saturday, 11 Jan 2014 at 5:16pm

Well well little old Ian got to Cat 5 last night apparently. Well done old chap.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 11 Jan 2014 at 5:32pm

Wow that is nuts,seeing as early forecasts only had Cat 2.

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump Saturday, 11 Jan 2014 at 10:23pm

Underrated.
.....damn handsome too!