The Final Five: Jack Robinson and Johanne Defay
Apart from the remoteness of their respective Indian Ocean cribs - Margaret River and Reunion Island - the career paths of our No 2 surfers could not be in starker contrast. Defay has been a scrapper, with a long, unrecognised campaign on the Q'ey. We learnt through Make or Break that she struggled to find adequate sponsorship to do the tour, which I found utterly confounding. Babe, rips, charges, competitive, charming and engaging, and has proven to be a Top 10 surfer since family and fellow Reunion surfer Jeremy Flores stepped up to fill the corporate void so Defay could compete. It's just a better day of pro surfing when Johanne Defay is in it.
Robbo, of course, has had to endure no such period of impecunity. A prodigy from a young age, Jack was navigating healthy monthly contracts and buying coastal real estate when most kids were scrubbing dishes for a pittance. With his preternatural tuberiding and air skills he's been considered the light at the end of a long dark tunnel for Australian Men's pro surfing.
To be fair, that assessment of Robinson has proven to be largely correct, as have other industry assessments of fellow prodigies. In the last decade and a half, at least, the talent has been spotted early and the investments well made. Medina, Toledo, John John, Jordy, Dane, before that Slater: all cash cows for the Surf Industrial Complex. Only Italo slipped through the net on the Men's side. The Women's side is a different story. It's only now that female prodigies are being recognised to the same degree as males. We digress.
Johanne brings a middling record at Trestles to Finals Day. Her rookie year third place in 2014 being the high point. Since then, it's two 9th's and a 5th place finish. That reflects her position as slightly behind the front-running gals in terms of small wave performance. Defay does, or did, have a progressive element to her surfing, notably a nose-pick reverse, but that move has become rarer than rocking horse shit in competition and lacking “match fitness” for competition it's highly likely she will revert to type and engage in solid meat and potatoes power surfing.
Defay makes the Final Five on the strength of a solid back end of the tour year, particularly a first place finish at G-Land where her backside surfing was a cut above her peers in disconnected reef surf. Head high Trestles would be considered one of her weaker venues, lacking the punch and grunt required to make her basic repertoire stand-out. A counter-factual with the Finals Day at solid Cloudbreak for example, would see her come in as firm favourite, especially against the current Final Five.
Alas, it's highly likely a new crop of hungry teenagers next year with more competitive experience will render this year the last, best chance for a Defay World Title.
Possibility of a World Title: Puncher's chance
Robinson is in a similar predicament to Defay in that a Cloudbreak Finals Day (or any barreling reef break) would see the calculus radically shift in his favour. His small wave surfing has improved but as we saw on the Oz leg last year, it's still shaded by peers with more muscle memory of small, weak surf.
Jack has elements in his favour. Huge wins over Toledo at G-Land, and John John at Margies. Buzzer beaters galore, including against Medina at G-Land. There's no lack of self-belief, confidence, or composure in the Robinson oeuvre this year.
In a bitter irony not lost on surf fans but which will be totally ghosted by the WSL smoke and mirrors press machine, the better surfer across a range of conditions (JR) will be forced to scrap in small surf at a distinct disadvantage. Absent one bad read at Pipe against Chianca his result there would have been better. It seems oxymoronic to say he was the best surfer at Teahupoo given his poor result but the markers he laid down in heavy water there were highpoints of the contest year. Across the widest range of conditions this year, Robinson has been the best surfer in the world, even allowing for the absence of Medina and Florence, and he will probably lose at head-high Trestles.
Robbo's greatest chance is if they hold off for the slightly extra juice and complexity of the hurricane swell expected. Jack thrives in chaos. His hallmark this year has been an X-factor based on unpredictability. That would go someway to diminish the slight performance gap between him and Toledo, assuming he gets past the challenge coming from below.
Wozzle will be forced by audience pressure at somepoint to shift Finals Day from Trestles to somewhere more meaningful, allowing Robinson to claim a title that may be just out of reach this year.
Possibility of a World Title: Fair chance
Comments
Go Jack.
Sorry FR. Off topic but “ In the last decade and a half, at least, the talent has been spotted early and the investments well made. Medina, Toledo, John John, Jordy, Dane, before that Slater: all cash cows for the Surf Industrial Complex. Only Italo slipped through the net on the Men's side.”
Do/did big corpo’s have scouts in the field in or was in mailed in videos that secured contracts?
Edit: P.S on point write up. The Robbo sentiment resonates with thee
There is no unsung talent these days that get through the cracks with social media. I have seen some amazing surfers over the years as young groms and all have been picked up. No world title contender or even top 5 will be not known. It's just not possible. Even Italo had a big rep as a youngster.
Strongly disagree re: Italo.
He came on Tour, largely as a virtual unknown.
As did Morgan Ciblic.
As did Jackson Baker.
As did Callum Robson.
Year before he got on Tour, Morgan couldn't make the Merewether club team.
To a degree, Toledo is in the same boat. He first came to Oz in 2012 as a 17-year old and he was pretty much an unknown, at least to Australian crowds. He came second at Newcastle with a huge air game and I recall the commentators and journos of the time having a field day with joyful cries of "Holy Toledo", like they were the first person to think it up.
He may have been better known in Brazil, his old boy is an ex-pro after all, however his first time competing outside of Brazil was only a year earlier in 2011. FT didn't get any early wildcards to CT comps, so we didn't see him coming as we did Gabe, nor did he create fervour in the same vein as young Jordy, Dane, Julian et al.
I know it's not the exact case, but it almost seemed like he arrived fully formed and unheralded.
Apparently they have a coach by the name of Luiz in Brazil that is a freak that alot used in the early days who made them who they are.
Yep, Luiz Campos.
Otherwise known as Pinga, a nickname that'd get him strip-searched at every Aussie rave.
From ADS on down, Pinga discovered and nurtured almost every young Brazilian pro, took them to Hawaii early, taught them English. It's only now that there are second gen surfers coming through - Fabio and Ian Gouveia, Leandro and Yago Dora, Wagner and Flipe Toledo - that Brazilians are rising from outside Pinga's nest.
We will agree to disagree. He was well known in Brazil as he was training with the best guys as a teenager. I know this as Billabong were watching him for a while they said. The surfers you mentioned will not make the cut mid next year. I will shout you a beer at Lennox Pub if they do. What I find interesting is that every year is we have a giant killer for 1 year as in Wade Charmichael, Morgan , Jake Freestone and even Wilko etc and the next they fall off the tour. It shows how hard it is to beat those top guys and with the mid year cut even harder to find your feet quickly. Like you articles Shep. Reminds me of the stuff DH did back in the 90's. Honest and raw.
Now we have the challenger series so many of the guys just can't grovel like the Brazilians and they are just so so hungry.
No probs.
I'll take a schooner of 7mile Iron Peg. (smiley face)
'Reminds me of the stuff DH did back in the 90's.'
When you bought surf mags for the words. Massive kudos and congrats to Steve, Ding Alley, Swellnet and the SwollenNuts for bringing that back
Pete Mel said he got in the lift with Italo the day before his first snapper comp and rode from ground level to the 8th floor and didn’t say anything to him cause he didn’t know he was a competitor. Mel was commentating.
I can't quite get over the adjective "progressive" as it is thrown around in surfing commentary - so often it is applied to moves, once novel, but that are now mostly tiresome perfunctory punctuation points first pioneered 20 + years ago.
".... have a progressive element to her surfing, notably a nose-pick reverse"
Jack's tube riding is currently progressive. The down-carve was a few years ago but is now routine.
New adjectives are needed - maybe it is as simple as peppering less intellectual sounding words like "hot" through commentary? Or, more bravely, throwing in the terms like "clunky" or "shit" every now and then.
Haha bleddy right on.
Freeride wrote:
"rarer than rocking horse shit"
Excellent phrase used there Freeride. Great writing as usual. Might just make it to watch Jack and Ethan's heats, if they don't go well early might bail and do something else around town, or watch footy which i don't really like that much, but Cronulla are going well this year so watching sometimes.
Toledo doesn't strike me as arrogant or ego'ed out as some say he is, just not a true world champ when winning most heats and rankings in semi sizey burger waves or small slop.
Hope the latest forecasts are a bit off and wind and swell cooperate, it's not too bad a wave i guess, would be fun to surf but just not grand final material imo.
Either Jack or Ethan for me.
I think Johanne would be a worthy title winner and I reckon she could go all the way if the surf is sizey.
Great write up - one point though, I'm not sure Jordy could be considered a good investment considering the $$$ and the overall average tour results. I'm sure I'll get howled down for this comment, but he's a consistent disappointment.
Might be a disappointment RE tour results, but being the lone South African on the CT for over a decade makes him a mighty good investment for business. Young Oz surfers are spoilt for heroes, but every single young SA grom wants to be Jordy and that puts him in a better position than most of his CT peers.
He hasn't been alone most of the time.
There's often been 1 or 2 others there rather quietly.
McGivalry this year.
Mike February was there for a year.
Travis Logie was a Saffa mainstay on tour for the first half of Jordy's career.
Greg Emslie was still there in his first couple of years i think.
There's been a couple of others come and go for a season from memory.
But yeah he's been the only one in that next level big hype category that's won several events if that's what you were actually getting at.
An African friend from Tanzania, who knows nothing much about surfing, visited the Bells contest this year, He had never heard of Kelly Slater but was pretty excited when Jordy Smith walked by.
Cool story Wally. I’m sure that represents a huge ROI
Jordy has been an elite top 10 CT surfer for over a decade and a huge surf star.
What Jordy has over his other Safa colleagues is exclamation worthy surfing. His video parts have always been some my favorites.
He seems to struggle to convert these consistently into competition but I reckon he's probably justified the investment as you say.
Mfeb gets some exclamation points too but more from a style steeze point of view.
Yep. Great analysis and agree with all of it. Jack a big chance and will be frothing to see him hopefully take it out and become WAs first ever world champ,. Go Robbo!!
The Spono wildcard's gotta go or at least enforce the 'you're not here to win a heat' clause. Jack should be in yellow, everyone, even Fil, knows that or the comp loses the last of its pockmarked integrity. Local hottie, that's ok, still hurts but there's the future at every break on tour. Win Jack, it's rightfully yours.
Johanne might hunt a left barrel and get the score, hope so, she goes alright, she goes left.
'Babe' ? umm ok well there goes the last of any hold outs in the female reader category
Babe is not offensive to female Readers SL.
It's close to a unisex term.
Go read a Mummy blog and you'll see men referred to as beefcake, studs, hotty's etc etc, as well as less printable terms.
We're nowhere near the point where someones attractiveness when considering their marketability as a pro surfer is off limits.
In fact, it probably needs more scrutiny.
Got some support from a quick google search. You know I enjoy your analysis and writing style and you speak for all of us in many ways but rating someone on their sex appeal?
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2012/02/08/being-c...
I can't recall ever seeing a barrel,or even a splashy cover up,at Trestles,left or right.
If even the most winningest surfer ever there,Slater,never found one or even bothered to go looking,than i reckon Defay's chances are slim to none of finding one.
If it comes down to just whacks,(which it will for the woman),then 1 on the left isn't gonna stand up against 3,4 or even more on the right.
She's just gonna have to try outsurf Carissa going right doing essentially the same kind of surfing.
A long shot but possible.
Johanne is definitely my favourite female surfer, and not just because she is attractive. Top surfer and has a dig, which can’t be said of all the girls. I think you’re allowed to recognise that a woman is attractive without losing all female readership, Freeride.
Although Carissa is a great surfer, this hasn’t been a great year for her, even though she came out as number one. Last year she was ‘progressive’, in the sense of doing things in comps that others hadn’t or couldn’t. This year, sent out in some real juice, she could have taken the sport to the next level, and she didn’t, while some other rookies did. If Johanne might find the new crop of rookies pushing her title hopes back in future, the same probably applies to Carissa. More so in my books if they are going to surf Parplarn and Chopes.
For the men, it’s JR and Ethan for mine. I don’t have to feel like an Aussie bogan for saying that. Despite FR’s call at Teahupo that the best tube riders in the world were Slater and Hedge, at 50 and 43, the vision clearly showed Jack going deeper, making more, doing it with aplomb and probably being underscored because of how easily he does it. Jack is the best beast-rider and handler on the planet, with only John John being competitive.
Ethan just surfs better than everyone. The flow and connection is outstanding, just about better than any surfer I’ve seen. Only Curren comes close for style and flow and connectivity. He has been a revelation this year. (For me, others clearly knew how good he was).
That Felipe is clear favourite is testimony to a stupid contest format and an underwhelming location. Why the hell can’t they come up with some better format. How about a two hour five person, 3 best waves heat - that I’d like to see.
Or just a normal contest where world titles can be decided in heat wins or losses, or quarters, semis or in the dream, in a final. This format is the worst of all possible worlds.
And don’t give me that “the number one deserves the advantage in this format because they came out on top during the year” excuse. My counterfactual would be Felipe, great surfer, heavy water dodger.
The finals format just looks like a made for American TV reality soap opera.
Other than that, good luck to all competitors.
BF > jeez you drained my brain there, I agree with all of that - I too would be delighted if Joanne and Jack won, simply because they take risks in the most difficult waves on tour, not just the most difficult section of pus wave, which is what we all know Trestles is. > RR
Jack is in a great position - has one heat to win to be in the final. Fitness won't be an issue, Toledo will be hard to beat in those waves but Jack is not far behind plus I reckon Jack has got an edge between the ears. Enjoy watching Ethan hopefully he can stay in touch next season but for me, Robbo will be the next world champ!
Great write up Steve
It just feels like these titles that are being decided at a sub-standard wave like Trestles lose their authenticity.
I can remember those special days decided at Pipe or in waves of consequence before the final event, but can't get excited, let alone remember who won last year's titles at Trestles.
Such a let down and anti-climax.
Yep and even if the title was decided, there was a mad scramble for survival on tour in heavy waves and the winner of the final event of the year had usually charged hard in good waves.
Even a Final 5 mini-tour would be better.
Final 5 surf Teahupoo (heavy), J-Bay (long) and Trestles (high-performance) in one month to decide the winner.
All those events are held are held in one month anyway, and WSL still gets their USA cash grab at Trestles.
Agreed. Pipe should be the rightful venue to hold the decider- challenging, technical, beautiful, brutal and comes with all the history that precedes it.
Trestles? Even the name is wussy.
"Trestles? Even the name is wussy."
That's because you're saying it the wrong way. Before the contest I met with the local tribes, who've lived here for years speaking their own patois. Most outsiders pronounce it 'tress-ells', but that's wrong, Joe. The first syllable is almost correct, it's actually 'trest', but for the correct pronunciation of the second syllable you must touch your tongue to the roof of your mouth, pucker your bum cheeks, and lead with an 'L'. The 'S' remains silent. It's pronounced 'lay' but said quickly.
Try it, Joe. 'Trest-lay'. It's a little bit like Nestle, you know the people who make Milo? Which is actually pronounced 'Me-lo'.
It looks like a set is approaching. Let's cut to an ad break.
Riffing
Hahahahaha!!!
This is gold!!! And the final line was icing!
There are always a lot of great comments in these threads, but it's almost always the humour that gets my fingers typing!
Cheers
Credit given.
And yes I’ve heard Venus de Meelo.
JJ isn’t absent.
He is out there getting super pitted .
Look at his instagram.
Robbo isn’t better than John.
Medina yes
"Medina yes", a big I don't think so mate! Jack has really improved, still improving, and will only get better. In my opinion not better than Gabriel!
yep
C’mon, Trestles is the crown jewel of SoCal surfing!!! ((so they say))
It ain’t Cloudbreak or JBay, but we’d all love to have it in our surf region. Uncommonly consistent too.