The World Title scenarios heading to Pipe

Stu Nettle
Form Guide

After the drama of Portugal, the world title races, both Mens and Womens, have been thrown in a spin.

No longer is Gabriel Medina Pinto Ferreira the unbackable favourite to win the blokes, in fact he no longer has the yellow jersey, Italo rides into Pipe with that on his back. 

There are less than 2,000 points separating the top four surfers, making it one of the tightest finishes in many years. When I get a chance I'll look into the history of that.

With their lowest scores removed (after Pipe their second-lowest will also be removed), the current Mens Top 5 are:

  • Italo Ferreira 51,070
  • Gabriel Medina 50,005
  • Jordy Smith 49,985
  • Filipe Toledo 49,145
  • Kolohe Andino 44,665

These are the Men's scenarios. All outcomes reference Italo as he's leading:

  • If Italo wins Pipe he takes the World Title irrespective of other outcomes
  • If Italo places second, then Gabriel and Filipe will need to win Pipe to take the World Title
  • If Italo places third, then Medina needs a second, Filipe and Jordy need to win Pipe
  • If Italo places fifth, Gabriel needs a third, Filipe second, and Jordy first
  • If Italo places ninth, Medina needs a fifth, Filipe third, Jordy second, and Kolohe enters the equation needing to win Pipe.
  • If Italo places 17th or 33rd, Gabs and Filipe will need a ninth, Smith a fifth, and Kolohe a second.

A few further points to consider:

Four of the top five are holding 17th places as potential throwaways. The only person who isn't is Jordy - he's holding a 9th - so all things currently being equal, Jordy will throw away more points when he drops his second score.

Over on the Women's draw there's a larger points spread - 5,190 points sperating the three title contenders - but the outcomes are equally as complex.

  • Carissa Moore 58,600
  • Lakey Peterson 55,125
  • Caroline Marks 53,410

Once again, all outcomes reference Carissa as she's wearing yellow:

  • If Carissa wins Maui she takes the World Title
  • If Carissa places second, Lakey needs to come first to win the World Title
  • If Carissa places third, Lakey needs to come second, and Caroline first
  • If Carissa places 5th, 9th, 17th, then Lakey needs to come third, and Caroline second to win the World Title.

Comments

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 9:33am

Treat me nicely if there are glaring errors in the above. Numbers ain't my strength.

Anyone got a hold of how the Seeding Round works yet? I'm blissfully ignorant, but it's gonna be under the spotlight this comp.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 11:51am

Thanks stu. Made sense to me. So its italos to lose. Hope its a good pipe year.

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 1:59pm

The seeding round, unlike every other sport in the world apart from the WWF, is there to match competitors to the best available script

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 9:53am

“ Four of the top five are holding 17th places as potential throwaways. The only person who isn't is Jordy - he's holding a 9th - so all things currently being equal, Jordy will throw away more points when he drops his second score.”

Does mean Jordy actually has more 17th or worse places? Is Jordy actually in worse situation than his position dictates? I dont get that throwaway thing.

I am the bone

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 10:04am

Yeah, obstensibly Jordy is in a worse situation as he's registered just one 17th all year, which will count as one of his two throwaways, and if he places higher than 9th then he'll be throwing out a 9th too.

In effect he'll be 'punished' for his consistency by throwing away a 9th (3,320 pts) when everyone else will be throwing away a 17th (1,330 pts)

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 12:34pm

Cheers Stu,

This comment has skyrocketed you to hot favorite for my “Summed Up Perfectly Award ‘19”.

Good luck!!

I am the bone

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 3:26pm

Form guide & tbb gives Stu a double Thumbs Up!

Truth is Jordy is in a far better position than he should be.
Jordy saw #1 Italo as a threat & took him out at Bells.
Jordy paddled well inside zone taking waves on his head.
Then sat up! Tested that priority disc was asleep!
Interferes with Italo's ride to claim reform interference
Technically not possible as all were outside the zone?
Rest is history...Italo was out & Jordy thru to semis.

Jordy should rank lower
Yellow Italo should have way more points.
Meaning Jordy couldn't win! (You see now!)

Because of Jordy's cheating he is placed to steal crown from Italo.
Now relive Italo's tears if same bully wins crown because of Bells.
Hands up if you still think Jordy was innocent in Bells scam.

Ocean's 11 & tbb discuss this fake Surf History on another page.
Jordy can't steal WSL crown from Italo without smelling of snake oil.
Any half decent surfer would never accept a dishonest victory.

freerider.'s picture
freerider.'s picture
freerider. commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 4:34pm

I think the judging is gonna be biased towards Jordy, back to back Brazilian champs aren't good for the Wsl 'target audience' and for Dirk. Pretty easy to push someone through I think. Gotta keep Dirk happy. When Dirk's happy everybody's happy--hes the one signing the checks......

wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson's picture
wax-on-danielson commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 9:20pm

Dunno about this. I would be surprised if Brazil wasn’t WSL and the whole surf industry’s primary focus as it is one of the biggest markets with the most potential. Apparently surfing is the second most popular sport after soccer and it’s population is a lot bigger than a lot of other surf keen nations.

JackStance's picture
JackStance's picture
JackStance commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 8:55am

Jordy is a white South African, so from mere fact of his stolen inheritance he's got to good deal of 'making good' to ever be a true champion.. Instead, like many competitive morons, he puts winning above ethics - so passé.

Breath. Murdoch's empire will one day fail to control our minds.

jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 4:47pm

It seems silly that the surfer who has been the most consistant throughout the year gets penalised the most points on throaways.
It's almost like it should be strategically calculated into the plan to deliberately throw a contest or maybe even 2 during the season.
It's also why it doesn't really matter that Medina always starts his season slowly when he exels all through the back half.
The only reason he's not in the driver's seat right now is his interference brain fade.
He easily has the best contest record of all the contenders at Pipe though so he probably still is in the driver's seat really.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 1:38pm

Is this a common thing in sports. Seems a bit miserable that you have surfed better but get shafted. Might as well not turn up for say...Brasil?

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 1:42pm

I doubt there'd be a surfer on tour who hasn't benefitted from it at some point.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 9:55am

The next 5 weeks will be a huge mental test for the 5 male surfers.

jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 10:38am

If Toledo is smart he'll be heading there 5 weeks early to get himself aquainted with the wave properly.
Jordy could do the same too.
If their previous career results at Pipe are anything to go by then they're probably already out of the title race.
Unless it's a year the comp doesn't get a solid swell i think Ferriera or Medina will get it.
Especially if it's more the left than the right.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 10:24am

And if JJF returns then he could cause some havoc too.

jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 5:12pm

Not just to the title hunt but the old man's olympic campaign too.
But i think JJ won't have had enough Pipe water time to be fully in rhythm to go deep into the event he might be a bit hesitant.
ACL surgery is usually mininum 8 months until back to 100% fitness.
He'll be coming back at about 6 months.
Remembering last year he didn't enter at 7 to 8 months after the initial injury and that was without surgery.
Which hindesight says he now should of had after the first time.
He would probably have won his 3rd world title by now if he did.

jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 5:11pm

Not just to the title hunt but the old man's olympic campaign too.
But i think JJ won't have had enough Pipe water time to be fully in rhythm to go deep into the event he might be a bit hesitant.
ACL surgery is usually mininum 8 months until back to 100% fitness.
He'll be coming back at about 6 months.
Remembering last year he didn't enter at 7 to 8 months after the initial injury and that was without surgery.
Which hindesight says he now should of had after the first time.
He would probably have won his 3rd world title by now if he did.

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Wednesday, 30 Oct 2019 at 12:17am

John does that shit at pipe in his sleep.
He's been surfing it so long he has a secret map to the pipeline
Go John John!

channel-bottom's picture
channel-bottom's picture
channel-bottom commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 1:07pm

Exactly, focus on time at the break.
Pay a pipe expert/local to be the coach for the next month. Surf it every time it breaks for the next 5 weeks.

I think others have done similar at Teahupoo.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 1:38pm

And start tomorrow: 

10ft from the NW, light E wind.

Gonna pump, sand notwithstanding.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 1:40pm

Yep sunset was huge today.

jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 5:00pm

Toledo should show up early knock on JOB's door stay with him in the lead up like ADS did in 2015.
It's the only chance he has i reckon.
And also a dodgy judging decision in another contender's heat helping him out too.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 1:42pm

Ahhh.... not sure if that is a great idea for ultimate fitness except if you want to get party fit. Plus you might wake up missing eyebrows.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 10:08am

Bring it!

jetson.rover's picture
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jetson.rover commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 10:22am

If Medina just has a Pipe contest like he does every year he'll get the title again i think.
Ferriera could spoil that if he has a blinder though.
Toledo and Jordy likely might choke or not get past a pipe specialist early on.
Their Pipe histories are sub standard and they both could benefit from showing up a month early and putting in serious hours out there in the lead up to the contest.
A couple of freesurfs out there before the comp won't cut it for those two,especially Toledo.

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 9:24pm

I don’t think Italo will be drawing on many fond memories of pipe contests. He’s got a poor record as well out there.
Not sure why but I get the feeling the Brazilian contingent spend more energy looking over their shoulder at Medina than others do

Ride on

jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 10:40am

He'll have a solid dig at it at least.
Remember his first wave at the box in the Margs comp a few months back?
And remember Toledo's heat against Jack Robbo after that?
There's the contrast between those 2 in serious hollow waves anyway.

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 8:40am

Italo turned poor positioning into a spectacular ride at the box. Toledo was lost at sea and rattled by the master.

I agree with your comments that they need to get as much time at pipe as they can but I can't doubt the size of either man's kahunas. IMO they just need the hunger to spend time in the water to develop good positioning and the ability to identify and commit early to the right chunk of water when its solid or tricky. If not they'll both get rattled by someone who's spent a shitload more time out there or someone who gets a good one early in the heat.

Ride on

JackStance's picture
JackStance's picture
JackStance commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 9:00am

The hype likes to X surfer hasn't got nada, but these days they all do. The calculated ones who are more likely to be risk adverse do the training - Breath Enhancement Training and the like, and they crunch the numbers,...

and we'll see if anyone holds back. Which I strongly doubt.

Breath. Murdoch's empire will one day fail to control our minds.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 2:56pm

Agree with that dawnperiscope. Italo spent the first 10 or so minutes of the heat at the Box not even looking like he wanted to catch a wave. Then he got lucky on that bomb. Admittedly it was his first surf out there...

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 10:47am

@jr, Jordy actually bought a place over there and lives there for the whole Winter, as of last year, so you can expect to see his experience start to show this December.

I picked up Italo from 5th pick this year in our annual betting comp. In order from last place to first from the previous year we pick a surfer and your stuck with them through everything they go through, injuries retirement whatever. It’s a winner takes all, one slab of beer each to the lucky one. 10 cases of beer riding on this for 4 of us, (no one picked Andino) right at Christmas time, but I’m under no illusion as to Medina being all over this. There’s going to be one really good day of viewing in there somewhere. Clear the diary!

jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 10:44am

He should of done that a few years earlier.
Then he might be at the same level as Medina, JJF, Kelly etc there now.

ojackojacko's picture
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ojackojacko commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 10:52am

anyone got the scenarios for kelly making the olympics and assuming jjf does compete at pipe?

shoredump's picture
shoredump's picture
shoredump commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 12:46pm

With 2 throwaways JJ is 4195 points in front. If he doesn’t surf Pipe he will pick up another 265 taking the total Kelly needs to 4460, which is a 5th. If Kelly were to win Pipe, he will finish on 38,760, which means JJ needs 5805 points to catch him, which is a 3rd.
If Kelly comes 2nd, JJ needs a 5th.
If Kelly comes 3rd, JJ needs a 9th.
If Kelly comes 5th, JJ needs a 17th.
If Kelly comes 9th, JJ can go rest his knee, crack open a tinny, and watch from the front lawn.
Kelly needs a blinder basically, whether or not JJ shows up.

ojackojacko's picture
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ojackojacko commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 2:42pm

shoredump
legend
thank you

JackStance's picture
JackStance's picture
JackStance commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 9:01am

here here.

Breath. Murdoch's empire will one day fail to control our minds.

kang's picture
kang's picture
kang commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 10:00am

Thank you!
Lets not forget GOATs 3rd last year!
With this little side race, pipe is gonna be epic (if the waves turn up)

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 11:29am

shoredump nails it...again, a lot more to this story.
WSL ranks higher but ISA Olympic requirement rules.
5a The Surfer must make himself available for their respective national team for participation in the 2019 'and' 2020 ISA World Surfing Games.
+ (Both conditions together are essential)
5b The Surfer must 'accept the nomination' of his National Federation to take part, and 'must actually take part', in any or all of the above ISA World Surfing Games.

Olympic Qualifying Questions:
Did JJF make himself available for 2019 ISA.
Any recall injured JJF nominating for 2019 ISA Games
Was his invitation pardoned from ISA.
Any recall 2019 ISA JJF promos,interviews etc.

If the answer in NO then JJF Team USA is for show.

JJF is provisionally disqualified from Olympics
Lakey is provisionally disqualified from Olympics.
N F failed to nominate WSL surfers for ISA > Olympics.
Crew can see, qualifying was drafted in such a way as too...

Next 10 > highest US WSL surfer (GOAT)qualifies.
GOAT refuses to head dip Waco for National Coach.
WSL sick note to NOC excuses GOAT from brain bugs.
National Olympic Committee selects GOAT #1 Olympian.

Oz Team train free @The Ranch over WSL Olympians.
Flog off Sunny WSL Olympic gig wins Gold Tickets.
Olympic ideal sold out for WSL Olympic deals.

web-cams-save-me-petrol's picture
web-cams-save-me-petrol's picture
web-cams-save-m... commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 2:41pm

If Gabe & Filipe are in the final then Filipe wins the title if he wins the event

Clarrie

freerider.'s picture
freerider.'s picture
freerider. commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 4:35pm

I think the judging is gonna be biased towards Jordy, back to back Brazilian champs aren't good for the Wsl 'target audience' and for Dirk. Pretty easy to push someone through I think. Gotta keep Dirk happy. When Dirk's happy everybody's happy--hes the one signing the checks......

freerider.'s picture
freerider.'s picture
freerider. commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 4:41pm

......

freerider.'s picture
freerider.'s picture
freerider. commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 4:36pm

I think the judging is gonna be biased towards Jordy, back to back Brazilian champs aren't good for the Wsl 'target audience' and for Dirk. Pretty easy to push someone through I think. Gotta keep Dirk happy. When Dirk's happy everybody's happy--hes the one signing the checks......

freerider.'s picture
freerider.'s picture
freerider. commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 4:43pm

...

freerider.'s picture
freerider.'s picture
freerider. commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 5:11pm

.....

frog's picture
frog's picture
frog commented Monday, 28 Oct 2019 at 5:45pm

Toledo will be underscored at Pipe because he is .... Toledo. He has a 1 to 3 point handicap there.

He clearly beat Jack Robinson at the Box but was underscored.

Frogg

yahabo's picture
yahabo's picture
yahabo commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 7:23am

BWAHAHHAHAHAHAAA!

kang's picture
kang's picture
kang commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 10:01am

I love this so much

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 1:47pm

I just fell off my chair laughing.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 6:41am

I know this throw away thing has been in for ages but as someone has said it really put consistency at a handicap. What other sport are you going to be penalised for being the most consistent?
It’s glaringly obvious with the women with Carissa having to drop quarter final results.
I guess it plays to the WSL script nicely though having it all come down to Hawaii. Portugal is a way less glamorous way to end things. Remember when’s title was won in Brazil?

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 6:49am

Yeah, but nah. Big nah. Definitely nah.

Going big means copping the odd injury, and the throwaways cover the increasingly likely chance of surfers getting injured. They can miss a comp or two through injury and still be in the running for the title.

belly's picture
belly's picture
belly commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 7:17am

I reckon the #1 factor for throw away is dealing with mother nature and getting skunked for waves in a heat. Surfers have to manage their own injury risk just like in every other individual based tour sport. If they choose to punt every second wave then that's ultimately their choice.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 12:19pm

Fair enough belly, you can get pretty skunked and a couple of ‘chances’ in account of that may be fair when dealing with Mother Nature- however havent the WSL given more chances to the journey man round 1/2 guys this year anyway?

Stu- don’t buy the whole injury thing. Doubt the two events is to compensate for that. When these guys do ‘proper’ injuries read: big ligament ruptures and the likes they are generally out for quite significant periods. No one is surfing ‘safe’, the whole tour is of that high a level that people can’t get consistent quarters or above by not ‘going for it’

Jamyardy's picture
Jamyardy's picture
Jamyardy commented Wednesday, 30 Oct 2019 at 2:31am

Maybe I am missing something here. I don't see how a consistent surfer is being handicapped through throw aways. If Jordy had another 17th to throw away (as opposed to a 9th right now, if he does better at Pipe), then he wouldn't currently be on 49,985 pts, he would be on something lower. He wouldn't be in a better position would he ?

belly's picture
belly's picture
belly commented Wednesday, 30 Oct 2019 at 7:05am

It's a relative thing.
Theoretically surfer A could have more points than surfer B before throw aways, then after throw aways surfer B has more points than surfer A. Therefore surfer A has been 'penalised' by the throw away system.

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher commented Wednesday, 30 Oct 2019 at 3:18am

2019-20 injured WSL Surfers .

*JJW (*Currently milking a WSL Injury Wild Card)
Owen Wright
Mickey Wright
Gabriel Medina
Leo Fiovaranti
Adriano De Souza

Crew are stoking XXXL Pipe with bumps'n'bruises'n'band-aids!
WSL wards are overflowing with Olympic Casualties.
WSL rigs up extra wildcards for Olympic Year. I feel better now!

belly's picture
belly's picture
belly commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 12:35pm

Jordy's attitude has been 1st class all year. Would really like to see him do it!!

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Tuesday, 29 Oct 2019 at 1:49pm

I second, third and fourth that. He just looks so good on a wave it is mesmerising, plus he has been on the tour for what, over 10 years?

Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean's picture
Lanky Dean commented Wednesday, 30 Oct 2019 at 12:27am

If conditions are all time they should throw double points on the thing.
20000 first place.....
All the way down.
Bring it
Yes wsl you read it here first.

Vince Neil's picture
Vince Neil's picture
Vince Neil commented Friday, 1 Nov 2019 at 11:38am

Jordy, deserves a world Title to be manufactured for him, just like Sunny and Occy before him - nobody would begrudge those guys either.
Shame they didnt manufacture one for Taj, but maybe thats what makes him cool
Italian Ferrari will get his in good time

daisy duke kahanamoku's picture
daisy duke kahanamoku's picture
daisy duke kaha... commented Friday, 1 Nov 2019 at 2:56pm

Dude, you were terrible in The Dirt. What happened?

Troz's picture
Troz's picture
Troz commented Sunday, 3 Nov 2019 at 6:48am

Don't like the throw away 2 comps thing. Someone who can't go left could win a world title by skipping Tahiti and pipe.