The World Title scenarios heading to Pipe
After the drama of Portugal, the world title races, both Mens and Womens, have been thrown in a spin.
No longer is Gabriel Medina Pinto Ferreira the unbackable favourite to win the blokes, in fact he no longer has the yellow jersey, Italo rides into Pipe with that on his back.
There are less than 2,000 points separating the top four surfers, making it one of the tightest finishes in many years. When I get a chance I'll look into the history of that.
With their lowest scores removed (after Pipe their second-lowest will also be removed), the current Mens Top 5 are:
- Italo Ferreira 51,070
- Gabriel Medina 50,005
- Jordy Smith 49,985
- Filipe Toledo 49,145
- Kolohe Andino 44,665
These are the Men's scenarios. All outcomes reference Italo as he's leading:
- If Italo wins Pipe he takes the World Title irrespective of other outcomes
- If Italo places second, then Gabriel and Filipe will need to win Pipe to take the World Title
- If Italo places third, then Medina needs a second, Filipe and Jordy need to win Pipe
- If Italo places fifth, Gabriel needs a third, Filipe second, and Jordy first
- If Italo places ninth, Medina needs a fifth, Filipe third, Jordy second, and Kolohe enters the equation needing to win Pipe.
- If Italo places 17th or 33rd, Gabs and Filipe will need a ninth, Smith a fifth, and Kolohe a second.
A few further points to consider:
Four of the top five are holding 17th places as potential throwaways. The only person who isn't is Jordy - he's holding a 9th - so all things currently being equal, Jordy will throw away more points when he drops his second score.
Over on the Women's draw there's a larger points spread - 5,190 points sperating the three title contenders - but the outcomes are equally as complex.
- Carissa Moore 58,600
- Lakey Peterson 55,125
- Caroline Marks 53,410
Once again, all outcomes reference Carissa as she's wearing yellow:
- If Carissa wins Maui she takes the World Title
- If Carissa places second, Lakey needs to come first to win the World Title
- If Carissa places third, Lakey needs to come second, and Caroline first
- If Carissa places 5th, 9th, 17th, then Lakey needs to come third, and Caroline second to win the World Title.