Australia - you're standing in it
goofyfoot wrote:Brutus you can press quote to copy someone’s post and then type your response under theirs so it all appears on a single post.
Not the quoted one then your response on a seperate one after that..Hope that wasn’t confusing?!
thanx Goofy....have a lot of fossil moments these last few years....LOL!
brutus wrote:goofyfoot wrote:Brutus you can press quote to copy someone’s post and then type your response under theirs so it all appears on a single post.
Not the quoted one then your response on a seperate one after that..Hope that wasn’t confusing?!
thanx Goofy....have a lot of fossil moments these last few years....LOL!
Nailed it! Ha
Brutus -"So the real question should be...why at this point in time , where economies are bleeding , Covid is rampant, geo-politics never been so unstable , that we provoke China, piss of France /Europe ( there goes our free trade agreement with Europe).......for 8 submarines that will possibly appear in 20 years???????"
Because it is the RIGHT thing to do . Doesn't matter what is the cost .
Brutus said " China they already have us by the balls......and could crush us with their economic power, just as they could do to the USA......"
Exactly !!! They are trying to do it now . The only reason they buy our Iron Ore and Coal ( or anything else ) from us is they NEED to . Why do you think they have invested so much in Africa ? Because they are being nice ? No , it is to get alternative sources of the things they need .
I am not prepared to have anyone anyone grab my balls and crush me without at least throwing my best punch . It may not hurt them but at least I will have tried to fight back .
The cost to Australia will be horrendous . Our current account deficiency will go through the roof . Every war is horrendous ! We had to stand up to Hitler and Xi is exactly the same .
Its time we get prepared . We need to build up our manufacturing urgently . We need to ween ourselves off the Chinese teat with our resource sales and imports .
We have two choices . Stick our heads in the sand and pretend they will let go of our balls . Or face reality and try and prepare as best we can .
If , as others ( thanks Con ) on this site have already predicted , the next election has this question as a policy difference the Libs/Nationals will romp home . It will lead to a much greater majority .
Scomo working on the subs deal for years makes me believe it is a real issue rather than a short term ruse to win votes . The perfect Wedge !
That will make VL happy , not .
As a contrast to the hyperbole, I found this article by Neil James (president of the somewhat hawkish ADA) to be a decent summary of the growing consciousness of Australia’s shifting strategic environment.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/18/aukus-is-jolting-a...
etarip . As some on this site ( I don't ) would not subscribe to the Guardian I would be appreciated if you could summarise the important points .
You don't need to be a subscriber Hutchy, you can just read it.
Hutchy 19 wrote:Brutus -"So the real question should be...why at this point in time , where economies are bleeding , Covid is rampant, geo-politics never been so unstable , that we provoke China, piss of France /Europe ( there goes our free trade agreement with Europe).......for 8 submarines that will possibly appear in 20 years???????"
Because it is the RIGHT thing to do . Doesn't matter what is the cost .
Brutus said " China they already have us by the balls......and could crush us with their economic power, just as they could do to the USA......"
Exactly !!! They are trying to do it now . The only reason they buy our Iron Ore and Coal ( or anything else ) from us is they NEED to . Why do you think they have invested so much in Africa ? Because they are being nice ? No , it is to get alternative sources of the things they need .
I am not prepared to have anyone anyone grab my balls and crush me without at least throwing my best punch . It may not hurt them but at least I will have tried to fight back .
The cost to Australia will be horrendous . Our current account deficiency will go through the roof . Every war is horrendous ! We had to stand up to Hitler and Xi is exactly the same .
Its time we get prepared . We need to build up our manufacturing urgently . We need to ween ourselves off the Chinese teat with our resource sales and imports .
We have two choices . Stick our heads in the sand and pretend they will let go of our balls . Or face reality and try and prepare as best we can .
China already cut off getting Coal from us.
Interesting read (artocle only a few days old)
"Beijing’s ban on Australian coal is hurting China
Every million tonnes of coal has recently been costing China’s steel mills more than US$400 million, compared with around US$250 million paid by steel mills everywhere else. The difference is entirely explained by China’s embargo on Australian coal."
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/beijings-ban-on-australian-coal-is-hur...
Obviously we aren't going to ever manufacture much in Australia because our wages and other business cost are ridiculously high compared to Asia, plus we dont have a big enough market to sustain manufacturing much, especially in this day and age where everyone wants choice we are no longer a Ford or Holden country..
Moving away from China and diversifying business and manufacturing interest in other SE Asian countries and India is a no brainer though.
If you’re pumping up for war, I hope to hell that you don’t have teenage kids.
etarip wrote:As a contrast to the hyperbole, I found this article by Neil James (president of the somewhat hawkish ADA) to be a decent summary of the growing consciousness of Australia’s shifting strategic environment.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/18/aukus-is-jolting-a...
Decent article but you can see why when you get to the bottom, not just another journalist or random nobody opinion piece, but "Neil James is executive director of the Australia Defence Association"
Some really good points and perspectives put up lately regarding this issue with China.
The fact of the matter really boils down to, it is not the people of the countries of concern, it is the governments, big business and overlords that put us in this situation. Unfortunately, it is the people that suffer from those pissing contests and poor decisions.
indo-dreaming wrote:China already cut off getting Coal from us.
Interesting read (artocle only a few days old)
"Beijing’s ban on Australian coal is hurting China
Every million tonnes of coal has recently been costing China’s steel mills more than US$400 million, compared with around US$250 million paid by steel mills everywhere else. The difference is entirely explained by China’s embargo on Australian coal."
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/beijings-ban-on-australian-coal-is-hur...
Obviously we aren't going to ever manufacture much in Australia because our wages and other business cost are ridiculously high compared to Asia, plus we dont have a big enough market to sustain manufacturing much, especially in this day and age where everyone wants choice we are no longer a Ford or Holden country..
Moving away from China and diversifying business and manufacturing interest in other SE Asian countries and India is a no brainer though.
Lovely sentiment Indo and I agree with it, but hard to achieve when successive conservative governments have cut funding for universities and tafe's across the country and kowtow to big businesses who don't want to invest what so ever in training Australians and are politically enabled to just import the skilled (& unskilled) labour.
I'd happily pay 10% more tax if I knew it was all going towards building Australian manufacturing capacity, via pumping up training facilities and making it easier for young people to gain the skills they need and for older workers to re-train as necessary. I'd like to see the government jump in to some of these important areas of industry to get it going, to take the risks that big business won't take (when they can just do it somewhere else cheaper).
"As a contrast to the hyperbole, I found this article by Neil James (president of the somewhat hawkish ADA) to be a decent summary of the growing consciousness of Australia’s shifting strategic environment.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/18/aukus-is-jolting-a..."
well, that was a measured, and dare I say balanced article from the guardian...
pleasant surprise
when the guardian jumps on board with 'the narrative', its pretty safe to say big wheels are a turning in the background
Alternatively, they might just agree with it sypkan. Believe it or not, sometimes there aren't mysterious, malevolent dark forces at work in the background.
"Australia has limited Chinese financial investment in Australia ....as I said in a previous post , if China decides on Monday to stop all exports to Australia.....Australia will make Venezuela look like a stable rich country......there is no need for anything military from China they already have us by the balls......and could crush us with their economic power, just as they could do to the USA......"
so why all the tough talk and threats of bombing?
i think you are choosing to remain naive....
So the real question should be...why at this point in time , where economies are bleeding , "...Covid is rampant, geo-politics never been so unstable , that we provoke China, piss of France /Europe ( there goes our free trade agreement with Europe).......for 8 submarines that will possibly appear in 20 years???????"
because there isn't much choice
and, as much as it pains me to say... ol' hutchy above is right...
its the right thing to do, the alternative future is unthinkable...
"Alternatively, they might just agree with it sypkan. Believe it or not, sometimes there aren't mysterious, malevolent dark forces at work in the background."
no choice really... unless you're a self deluded constance or vicidiot...
the wheels I talk of are countries and allies, its been apparent things have been moving in a certain direction for some time if one has the ability to read beteeen the lines
enough with the conspiracy theories about conspiracy theories bullshit
"Moving away from China and diversifying business and manufacturing interest in other SE Asian countries and India is a no brainer though."
Agree ID.
China has been able to throw it's weight around because the USA has pretty much abandoned the international diplomacy field. China has already made significant economic and diplomatic inroads into SE Asia and other developing nations.
Trump's America First and Brexit was an absolute gift to China. The retreat from Kabul was an absolute humiliation for the USA. America's military power is fine for destroying things but useless for nation building. Meanwhile China is the only game in town when it comes to funding and building major infrastructure projects in developing nations. The USA isn't building railways in Africa, Ports in Sri Lanka or energy infrastructure in Central Asia.
It's idiotic in the extreme for Australia to think a pissy little coalition with America and Britain will stop the rise of China. The submarine deal has done absolutely nothing to build a wider coalition of nations to stand up to China. If anything, it's alienated potential allies.
And the biggest insult is, it's just a fucking announcement. Any sub will take decades to roll off the production line, has an unknown cost, and will be completely obsolete before getting wet.
What a shit show.
hmmm ok....
sypkan wrote:"Australia has limited Chinese financial investment in Australia ....as I said in a previous post , if China decides on Monday to stop all exports to Australia.....Australia will make Venezuela look like a stable rich country......there is no need for anything military from China they already have us by the balls......and could crush us with their economic power, just as they could do to the USA......"
so why all the tough talk and threats of bombing?
i think you are choosing to remain naive....
So the real question should be...why at this point in time , where economies are bleeding , "...Covid is rampant, geo-politics never been so unstable , that we provoke China, piss of France /Europe ( there goes our free trade agreement with Europe).......for 8 submarines that will possibly appear in 20 years???????"
because there isn't much choice
and, as much as it pains me to say... ol' hutchy above is right...
its the right thing to do, the alternative future is unthinkable...
Sypkan....China's threats about military intervention is just that ,Threats......why would China risk and expensive military war , and piss off our allies and possibly drag our allies into a war.....when they could just cut us off from their products?
Military intervention is too risky , economic war just less $'s......and a much clearer outcome...cripple the Australia economy how would we pay for the Subs....all smoke and mirrors ......China will be celebrating that US/French/ European relationships are at an all time low.....all because the little flea called Australia has asked for 8 nuclear subs , lied to their French counterparts...and chose Sleepy Joe and Boris....how do you think our free trade agreement will turn out in Europe??
"Some really good points and perspectives put up lately regarding this issue with China.
The fact of the matter really boils down to, it is not the people of the countries of concern, it is the governments, big business and overlords that put us in this situation. Unfortunately, it is the people that suffer from those pissing contests and poor decisions."
'...it is the governments, big business and overlords that put us in this situation...'
so true... and some have gone so so 'all in' with china, their reluctance for change is pretty obvious, totally damning, and now, just dangerous...
fair enough, ...kind of... it's near impossible to undo decades and decades of investment and vested interests
and probably even more difficult, it is a direct challenge to many people's beliefs and ideals
but it is happening, slowly but surely...
"Sypkan....China's threats about military intervention is just that ,Threats......why would China risk and expensive military war , and piss off our allies and possibly drag our allies into a war.....when they could just cut us off from their products?"
errrmmm, domestic pressure...
real domestic pressure...
not the, frankly ridiculous, confected scomo election domestic pressure... but real real existential threat domestic pressure...
and, saving face very important in some parts of the world...
all that 100 years of humiliation bullshit...
reunification...
"Military intervention is too risky , economic war just less $'s......and a much clearer outcome...cripple the Australia economy how would we pay for the Subs....all smoke and mirrors ......China will be celebrating that US/French/ European relationships are at an all time low.....all because the little flea called Australia has asked for 8 nuclear subs , lied to their French counterparts...and chose Sleepy Joe and Boris....how do you think our free trade agreement will turn out in Europe??"
I think it'll probably turn out just fine...
some of you seem to have totally missed developments and a changing narrative in europe
how'd that europe / china free trade deal go?
Sypkan, yes there is a changing narrative in Europe. Germany has been the dominant player in the EU with Merkel at the head, now it's Macron/France's turn......how do you think that positions Australia in the upcoming free trade agreement?
As far as domestic pressure goes , not sure if you understand China and what Xi has done in the last decade....a decade ago he promised a better deal for the poor....800 m people have been dragged out of poverty in 10 years so there is a middle class now....they have lost some freedoms but their quality of life has dramatically changed for the better.......
As for domestic pressure in Australia , between Scomo and Alby , FFS compared to China we don't have any real leadership ........we are a nation of rockdiggers and now those rocks are losing value , so Australia starts thumping it's chest /sabre rattling so people will get onboard that we are the good guys , they are the bad guys...political bullshit aimed at the masses as a distraction from Covid/climate change/and a recession!
VicLocal _"China has been able to throw it's weight around because the USA has pretty much abandoned the international diplomacy field. China has already made significant economic and diplomatic inroads into SE Asia and other developing nations.
Trump's America First and Brexit was an absolute gift to China."
You are so wrong . China is throwing its weight around now because it finally can . They now have the power and they intend to use it . They have built islands to gain a strategic advantage . They have reneged on their agreement regarding HK . Only the blind will wait for them to take over Taiwan to realise they are NOT just threatening .
They have waited decades to build the financial might which has now purchased military might . Decades of signing agreements that showed the world they would play by the rules . Trade agreements and Climate Change agreements that they never intended to abide by . Look how they continue to steal technology .
The world was convinced to embrace globalisation . To close their manufacturing and use China to produce goods much cheaper . To enable the Chinese people to come out of poverty . To industrialise , to modernise , to become a rich country .
They now have the world by the balls and due to their perceived invincibility are now happy to squeeze . They will always squeeze harder until they are shown it will not be in their best interest .
Trump was the first US president to see the problem and react with a trade war . He turned the tide and I applaud him for having the balls . The new president will be told to try to change it back . I don't think he has the support of the people or the balls to achieve what his puppet masters want . They made a terrible mistake in choosing him . The US people know this now . WTF does Brexit have to do with it ?
I am so glad the cat is finally out of the bag .
.
My big hope which I think can happen is that China changes course . Many of them are very smart and will be nervous about the path their leadership is on .
By making himself leader for life the leader puts himself in grave danger . Rivals who have different opinions will be thinking and plotting what they can do . Remember Cesar . Beware the Ides of March Wi .
"Sypkan, yes there is a changing narrative in Europe. Germany has been the dominant player in the EU with Merkel at the head, now it's Macron/France's turn..."
not what I was talking about, but yep...
hopefully the french aren't as beholden to china as germany's economy was... which influenced some pretty shit decisions from what I could see, ...either way, the french and china seem to have some long running hostilities going atm... so all good from what I can see...
"...how do you think that positions Australia in the upcoming free trade agreement?"
probably not good, but tbh, I don't give a shit about 'free' trade deals, i think they are a hoax, and quite often the devil's work in disguise, and find it quite unpalatable that you seem to value these so much above other things...
"As far as domestic pressure goes , not sure if you understand China and what Xi has done in the last decade....a decade ago he promised a better deal for the poor....800 m people have been dragged out of poverty in 10 years so there is a middle class now....they have lost some freedoms but their quality of life has dramatically changed for the better......."
of course I understand this, and it is quite a respectable achievement to be honest... but are you aware of the various domestic pressures xi is under?
most commentators seem to think it's a bit of a tinderbox, and bubbling away nationalism is much more likely cause for war from xi's side than any rather ridiculous, ...outright ridiculous actually... scomo comparisons made by some...
"As for domestic pressure in Australia , between Scomo and Alby , FFS compared to China we don't have any real leadership ........we are a nation of rockdiggers and now those rocks are losing value , so Australia starts thumping it's chest /sabre rattling so people will get onboard that we are the good guys , they are the bad guys...political bullshit aimed at the masses as a distraction from Covid/climate change/and a recession!""
well we agree there... the first bit...
sabre rattling... nah mate, you've gone a bit arse about face at the end there...
Macron like Merkel will be outed at the next election . No more M&M's .
Trump's ultimate legacy is to finally convince the rest of the world (with the exception of the idiot conservatives in Australia and Britain) that the USA is an unreliable partner.
China was always rising and Obama managed to keep the a wider coalition of democracies together as a bulwark. That's all over now and Biden has zero chance of building a multi-national coalition to slow China's dominance on the world stage.
Australia is a middle nation at best, one with a reputation that has been vastly diminished due to our deteriorating human rights record and awful climate change policy. Our diplomatic policy involves being world's biggest arse kisser while neglecting relationships with other nations. It's actually pretty pathetic.
Russian proverb.
Beware of king is when proud of big new cod piece lump in trouser after long time small bulge.
What are you talking about? Merkel’s stepping down. Not being booted at an election.
Welcome back Vlad. You’re always a welcome voice in the forums
VLocal -
He did piss off NATO by demanding they pay their fair share of the bills as per the agreements . He thought it unfair that the US people had to pay overs to protect Europe . He did have the balls ( Obama -haha ) to call them out . Guess what happened ? They changed and started paying their fair share !!!!
Obama telling the UK they would go to the end of the trade negotiation que convinced me that Brexit was 50/50 . What a dunce to get involved .
Whatever Hutchy19.
Trump manage to seriously piss European nations off for so many more reasons. Were you not paying attention to the Iran situation? When Trump started economically bullying EU companies over Iran, they told the orange lunatic to fuck off and sided with Tehran.
It was a stunning diplomatic own goal.
Vlad, are you suggesting that big cod piece... could be a nuclear submarine?
"Trump's ultimate legacy is to finally convince the rest of the world (with the exception of the idiot conservatives in Australia and Britain) that the USA is an unreliable partner."
didn't biden just do that?
your commentary is always all kinds of 'special'...
"China was always rising and Obama managed to keep the a wider coalition of democracies together as a bulwark. That's all over now and Biden has zero chance of building a multi-national coalition to slow China's dominance on the world stage."
all the recent commentators seem to think obama fucked up when he overlooked the goings on in the south china sea... it's been a road to here...
"Australia is a middle nation at best, one with a reputation that has been vastly diminished due to our deteriorating human rights record and awful climate change policy. "
pfffff ....whatever... a certain class and cohort of persons make a lot of noise about this... but seriously... what human rights in china?
taliban criticising our refugee policy... yeeh nah...
"Our diplomatic policy involves being world's biggest arse kisser while neglecting relationships with other nations. It's actually pretty pathetic."
your 1990's, never changing, narrative is what is pretty pathetic...
VLocal - your starting to get crazy .
You think it was right that any companies sides with Iran ? Why ? Please provide one example of your good idea and I will do some work and respond .
Trump surprised be by not retaliating against Iran on numerous occasions !
"Whatever Hutchy19."
no whatever... after the initial hysterics, from the usual suspects...
most rational commentators conceded trump had a point
Actually, the NATO spending commitment was made in 2014, while Obama was still in power, and the contributions had been rising since 2015, before Trump came into power. Trump was right to call them out though.
What was silly was the hero worship narrative that naturally sprang up around him.
Sypkan -"all the recent commentators seem to think obama fucked up when he overlooked the goings on in the south china sea... it's been a road to here..."
So true !!! So weak and showed the world that the US had rolled over and could not be relied upon .
Very true to form though ! Obama - hardly ever was true to his word . Most disappointing US president as he showed promise but underachieved big time . Most over rated president ever just because he was Black .
With Bidens decisions being so poor I think Obama might be one of his puppet masters .
OK, cheers for the appreciation for those links crew. Perhaps we can begin to clearly identify the strategic situation as it actually is. There must be some significantly alarming information coming in to prompt changes such as those occurring. Next up, I have something a bit more in depth, from a graduate of my alma mater*, no less.
It is seriously good historical research. Decades of PRC action and policy in the SCS are categorised, given numerical weight, and then produce a visible graph of ratcheting tensions from that side in that area. Quantified are aggressions, possession of land, and phase-shifts in intent. From here we can conclude a probable course of action. Top work by Andrew, it gets the VJ Historical Excellence Award for the week. (It's a bit more heavy going so if you just want the cliffnotes, go to the vid I posted before)
*why the hell didn't they offer this path when I went through?! I got the history wars and the precursor of all the woke politics dammit.
Johnno- Thanks so much !!
This confirms my worst concerns . I knew the Chinese have always thought long term and plan meticulously . They have been planning for this since 1970 . Waiting for the right moment , when they have the military might to execute their plans .
All the charts finished in 2015 and all would have gone through the roof if updated to 2020 .
Makes me doubt my hope they can change direction !!!! Xi is just the man to execute a long term plan .
Absolute proof of what their intensions are and what our response should be if we want to avoid World War Three .
The world needs to unite and confront China NOW . Before it is too late . Absolutely no appeasement !
Throw them out of the UN . Blockade them . Take back everything they have bought outside of China .
Never install their communication products .Lock them out of the financial system . Apply draconian sanctions . Do whatever it takes .
Anyone who thinks China are the good guys need to watch this video ! It proves without doubt what they are up to .
Thanks again . Very confronting but also enlightening !
velocityjohnno wrote:Vlad, are you suggesting that big cod piece... could be a nuclear submarine?
King Xi has much navy cod piece now and grow much want of show to pussy west proud enlargement.
Vlad - will Russia join the blockade ? What does Putin think ?
Obama should have know all this . What a dereliction of duty ! Traitor is probably the right word .
#ThatFellaDownUnder
Burnt the French, burnt the NZer's, burnt $2 bill, and what do we get?
An Announcement.
Obama is a "traitor".
And here we have the idiot right in all it's "glory".
Trump of course isn't a traitor despite encouraging a mob to storm the capital on Jan 6 where 6 people died. And that's after not accepting a democratic vote, and his long history of dealing with foreign dictators to attack the democrats.
Calling Obama a traitor while ignoring the ridiculous extremism of Trump and his cronies is just silly.
Vic Local wrote:Obama is a "traitor".
And here we have the idiot right in all it's "glory".
Trump of course isn't a traitor despite encouraging a mob to storm the capital on Jan 6 where 6 people died. And that's after not accepting a democratic vote, and his long history of dealing with foreign dictators to attack the democrats.
Calling Obama a traitor while ignoring the ridiculous extremism of Trump and his cronies is just silly.
Why do you keep getting this wrong?
Five people died not six
1. One unarmed women shot at point blank range by security.
2.One police officer died the next day from a heart attack (and no he did not get hit with a fire extinguisher)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Brian_Sicknick
3.One died of a stroke.
4.One died of a heart attack.
5. One women did get trampled but actually died of acute amphetamine intoxication
And a bunch of Capitol police officers have since committed suicide.
But hey, let's all just ignore Trump's role in this insurrection.
This was his violent mob.
And the idiot rabble on the streets of Melbourne today have been encouraged by the LNP in Victoria and the Sky News After Dark nutters.
You blokes need to start calling out the conservative megaphones who whip up stupid violent mobs for political gain.
China and its threat to Oz?
Historically China hasn't had a military ambition beyond its boarders other than Japan.
Taiwan will always be a part of China so its not an example.
South China sea is also a Chinese asset also not an example
Great powers always use economic power to gain control and influence for their own benefit. This is also always followed by projecting military power to maintain this advantage.
Question is will China project military power?
Currently China's military build up isn't configured for this purpose.
Why are we building subs here that will leave a 20 to 40 year capability gap costing x 2 to 3 times as a result with no reduction in sovereign risk?
Having nuclear powered subs will lead to having them also being some time in the future being nuclear armed.
Carry on gents...
China doesn't need to outgun us. They will just outsmart us. Spending $90 billion on some submarines is a fucking obscenity. Imagine spending that amount on health and educating your population. How switched on would this country be in 20 years time which is when we will take delivery of these subs.
Do some quick maths. Say an average uni or hospital costs $2 billion to build we could build 45 of these. Say the average uni fee is $50k we could give 1.8 million students an education that will better their lives. Say the average front line health workers wage is $150k then this would employ 60,000 health care workers for the next ten years.
One has to seriously question the intellect of a marketing executive, a journalist and someone who could be your great grandad, firstly for discussing this idea, and secondly for actually implementing it. Real leadership is non existent at the moment.
We don’t need the submarines just yet, but we do need the British and American navy guard dogging our pacific turf. It’s a good deal with them sharing all their other gadget tech as well. So now China will no longer be a military threat but the problem is them being a hacking threat. With quantum tech they will eventually be able to hack everything so we need a good off grid defence and monetary system. Can you imagine the whole world waking up one day with their bank accounts empty. The head of alibaba disappeared recently after refusing to hand over everyone’s account details to the Chinese govt. these are the threats we really need to be concerned about. Time to untangle yourself from internet and tech reliance. Pay cash, simplify, turn off most apps…etc etc…don’t use your proper date of birth all over the net…can’t hurt.
The "I can't believe it's not politics" thread.