The "I can't believe it's not politics" thread.
Hi Distracted - I'll have a look at that.
The French option for the subs (Attack class) was a bit of a shock decision in the bidding - the very capable Japanese Soryu class was expected to win. Plus, we're converting a nuclear design into a diesel/electric (iirc) which is sure to create some engineering hiccups. Simmering relationships between Navantia and the AWD alliance were reported, before. It isn't easy when you have to kick-start a high-tech industry from scratch, but we've come a long way (take note car industry...) To me it sounds like they are trying to whip up controversy, and that when we signed a 90Bn deal we were going to go through with it. When done, these will be big boats with great range and offensive potential, a great increase on the Collins class.
On the plus side, we've ironed out the Collins class to the point where they are a very capable, stealthy threat. We have the actual ability to build and the experience now.
As for the ABC - it's been written that they hate the Navy...
...sorry couldn't resist. Actually, perhaps they should walk the plank...
When it comes to defence aquisition, my own take is they've done it - brilliantly. We now have a remarkable increase in capability, bought at an affordable cost; and fitting into strategy and doctrine, as this strategy and doctrine has evolved. We have designed our own unique and respected technology as well. I will link some exceptional vids (some of the best content on YT, done by a trained Historian so nothing fly-by-night). The only extra thing I'd love to see is F35s on the flat tops, even the capability for just a few.
A Modern History of the ADF: Adapting to an Ever Changing Strategic Landscape
This work is very high quality, better than any you will see in the mainstream media.
You can see we tailored to our situation - similar weapons/sensors to US Burke class, but smaller and more economical to run. A good honest story on the issues we faced trying to rebuild the industrial capacity.
It's a great channel; I recommend a bit of time learning about the various Aussie platforms he presents. He's just done a vid on Milne Bay, so I'll be glued to that tonight - my great uncle was at Milne Bay, as well as my late neighbour. In my neighbour's case, he was stationed on an anti-aircraft battery at the mouth of the bay as the Japanese went in, and they thought they'd been left to their fate! Luckily, someone remembered them, and a motor launch picked them up and they lived to see another day.
Interesting to see another perspective VJ, I guess it’s the bad news that makes the headlines, but to be re-engineering a design at a 90$B cost sounds risky. The French deal sounded strange as hadn’t Abbot basically told the Japanese the deal was in the bag?
Re Milne Bay, my grandfather was flying Beaufighters over there at the time, might have given your uncle a wave at some point!
Hey Distracted, it does sound risky and strange, but we have a history of taking designs from around the world and 'Australianising' them - beyond the military, too. Look at the Falcon and Commodore for example - we took a US and German design respectively and then made them fully Australian over a couple of decades, springing utes, panel vans, 4x4s, SUVs, coupes, long wheelbase luxury cars off them.
( There seems to be a unique manufacturing method that works in Australia, where the rest of the world's volume/scale approach does not. For example GM-H was getting over 90 different models (and brands!) off the one chassis platform in the 1930s. I was devastated when the plug got pulled on the car industry as we lost something very unique - and domestic career paths as well. )
In terms of subs, we did this previously with the Collins class - adapting a foreign diesel-electric design with some quite remarkable innovations - for our unique requirements. Overall, I'll stick my neck out and say a success, but not initially.
He says it in more detail and better.
Flying Beaufighters, wow. Always thought they were a very cool plane. I watched the vid last night, and like a lot of Pacific Australian stuff it is a history that has been almost completely underreported (Think: ABDA, last stand of HMAS Perth and USS Houston, Sparrow force on Timor - Vector Historia has a great channel on YT showing many of these lesser events that you'd have to trawl through obscure books to otherwise find).
What struck me was how important Milne Bay was - it was the turning of the tide, close to home. A Japanese land advance (and naval - at Coral Sea and Guadalcanal at roughly the same time) was stopped, and turned around. It is as close to being in real trouble as Australia has ever been, and should have much higher recognition than it does given the mythology created around earlier events much further away. It was also the RAAFs finest hour with the Kittyhawks.
I've been told great uncle was at Milne Bay as part of the 7th (AIF or a militia brigade, I think it was the latter? There are two '7ths' in the vid) - then Kokoda where he did make contact with the Japanese army, then malaria and hospital in Brissy I think, then the Solomons where his unit took the wrong turn and spent a couple of months waist/neck deep in the swamp. Consistent firing deafened him and the malaria had a lifelong effect. But - he lived well into his 90s!
Without further adieu, the most important Australian battle you've never heard of:
My father lied about his age to enlist and found himself fighting in PNG before his 20th birthday. Was in Darwin during the bombing. He didn't talk a lot about his service, lost mates, wounded, he did talk about the relentless mud and he was full of praise for the Australian biscuit bombers and their flight crews flying at tree height to avoid being shot down and at low speed to parachute much need supplies to Australian troops often only a few hundred metres from Japanese lines. Came home at war's end with the full cocktail of tropical diseases and spent 7 months in the Rehab Hospital recovering before being allowed to discharge from the Army.
My father tried to join the air force after the start or WW2 . Deemed unfit because of a heart condition . That was correct as it killed him later aged 48. Served in the light horse in Aust for balance of the war. My stepfather was a tank commander , leading charges across Europe after d day. Talked about his role in battle as simply observing his crew , sitting on tons of high explosives' and gasoline amid explosions' during the fight., locked in a metal shell. - said it only took seconds after one member cracked for it to infect everyone in the tank then they would all freak. He would order the tank to stop . open the hatch , give old mate his pistol and tell him to find his way back to the allied lines. Good friend of the family in PNG ,officer, told us of having to shoot members of his squad who cracked and started babbling enough to give their positions away to japs nearby. . War is fucked but humans keep pushing it. That's what history tells us .
Hey VJ and the rest of the crew, great stories. Yes, Milne Bay was pivotal, the Japanese were unlikely to be stopped if they didn’t stop them there. Some brilliant planning, amazing courage and resilience and probably a bit of dumb luck was all that stopped them getting to Darwin, and Darwin wasn’t strongly defended so they would have overrun it in days, if they got there.
PM Curtin had taken the courageous decision to tell Churchill he was bringing the troops home to defend Australia. Went down like a lead balloon.
Australia was a tough place back then. World’s changed. Australia has changed so much in my lifetime, much of it for the better, lots that we have lost too.
War is mental.
From the excellent Macrobusiness site:
Why is Treasury setting Australia’s immigration numbers?By Unconventional Economist
“Late last month, the Senate Legal and Constitutional Affairs Legislation Committee heard testimony from immigration department officials, who confirmed that the Australian Treasury sets the nation’s immigration numbers and population policy [my emphasis]:
Senator KENEALLY: I do want to get to the NOM number — the net overseas migration number…
Mr Pezzullo: Questions about the how Treasury arrives at the net overseas migration figure and the inputs that they factor into their model are really questions better directed to the Treasury…
The Treasury is responsible for population policy. They derive the net overseas migration calculation, based, no doubt, on modelling that they do and inputs they receive from a number of areas, such as my department. In terms of how the NOM is arrived at, you will need to ask the Treasury…
Senator KENEALLY: Let’s see if we can cut it this way, then, Mr Pezzullo, because what we’ve got in this budget shows a population growth of 0.12 per cent in 2020-21 and 0.16 in 2021-22. That’s amongst the lowest growth rate in Australia’s modern history. Then we see a rapid turnaround in 2023-24 and 2024-25, to 1.26 and 1.37…
Mr Pezzullo: Given that the assumptions in the budget are put together by the Treasury, which also puts together the intergenerational population model, you will need to ask the Treasury. Both sides of the equation — the longer-term projection and how quickly NOM comes back into the positive — are in the hands of the Treasury… The Treasury is aware of all the variables…
Senator KENEALLY: I only ask this because the December 2020 Population Statement forecasts a 190,000 planning level per annum. It says, ‘Between 2020-21 and 2022-23, the planning level for the permanent program is 160,000 and from 2023-24 it is 190,000’… Does the department have an understanding that the planning level is going to change from 2023-24?
Mr Pezzullo: I can tell you what’s in my field of knowledge. My job is to deliver the in-year program and then, from budget to budget, to provide advice to the immigration minister about the management of the next year’s program. As to what the medium term entails, that’s a function of demography and population, which is under the administrative arrangements within the Treasury.
Why the hell is the Australian Treasury setting Australia’s immigration intake and population policy? Given they have responsibility for federal government revenue (whereas the Department of Finance controls expenditure), they will always have a bias towards higher immigration, since more migrants means bigger personal and company taxes.
However, the Australian Treasury will never take proper account of the costs of big migration – either financial or non-financial – since these are borne primarily by the states and residents at large.
The whole immigration program is really about numbers – the ‘Treasury numbers’ needed to sustain Australia’s rate of economic growth and the Commonwealth’s projected tax revenues.
I bet if the federal government was required to internalise the cost of immigration by paying the states $100,000 per permanent migrant that settles in their jurisdiction, so that they can fund the extra infrastructure and services required, then Treasury would no longer tout the ‘fiscal benefits’ of immigration.
Making the federal government share the benefits and costs of immigration would be a surefire way of reducing the intake back to sensible and sustainable levels.“
Wouldn't surprise me at all Blowin. Saul Eslake did a great article recently, looking at Victoria and dividing economic growth into a per capita figure - to take into account the immigration numbers. He showed that overall per capita gross product has fallen, and per capita income has also fallen. I think he has argued the state is poorer than it was based on these terms, and it's economic model needs to be rethought and recast. Amen. It's particularly sad to see this in Geelong, a former manufacturing powerhouse - althougth the Corio refinery has been saved for now (only 1 of 2 left in the country!!!) and Carbon Revolution is out there making some great, high end stuff.
And thanks crew for the stories above.
“The following tweet is now on public record after having been read out in Senate Estimates by Lib Ben Small:
I try and sue the ABC but instead my pants fall down and I try to waddle away but accidentally waddle over a balcony and land headfirst into a truck of pig manure and my legs wriggle around and everyone sees my heart-patterned boxer sorts
It was tweeted by comedian Ben Jenkins as a witty repartè after Christian Porter dropped his defamation case against the ABC.
The libs have been trawling through social media and finding posts such as these that were ‘liked’ by ABC journos to try and demonstrate bias.
So the government knows how many tweets have been liked by ABC journalists, but don’t know how many aged care residents have been vaccinated against COVID-19. Priorities “
Why “Pig Iron Scott” should boycott iron ore to China
By David Llewellyn-Smith
“Australia’s personality-disordered PM, Scott Morrison, is galavanting around the world drumming up support to contain China. He’s invited himself to the G7 to lace it with anti-CCP warnings. He’s dropped into Downing Street to spray Beijing. He’s soon off to the White House for an anti-CCP powwow. At home, more US marines and naval access are on the way because the Morrison Government believes that war over Taiwan is now a distinct possibility.
I’m all for this great China pushback. I part ways with the disordered PM is his total lack of a plan to deal with it.
You have to ask yourself, if the CCP threat is so grave, and I agree that it is, then why are we not preparing our military, our economy, our immigration program and society to bolster our way of life before it all goes pear-shaped?
Labor says it’s because Morrison is just playing domestic politics, meaning he’s exaggerating how bad is the CCP threat. But, clearly, Morrison’s anti-China world tour and determination to cut off all exports bar iron ore is more than that.
No, it’s the disordered PM’s usual total lack of policy process that is at work here. He’s not a leader with a strategic outlook. He never plans anything. He can’t execute his way out of a wet paper bag. He’s a glorified real estate agent with a gift for gaslighting. It could even be argued that his national interest anti-CCP crusade is accidental, the result of his own blundering motormouth, not any strategic insight.
So, if the CCP threat is real then what should he be doing about it? If you’ll permit me the luxury, I’m going to answer that question with another.
The closest historical analogy we have to our emerging circumstances is the period before WWII when a range of fascistic states challenged an existing imperial order. The Nazis and Japanese imperialists had very similar plans to the CCP.
Like both, the CCP has invaded neighboring Rhinelands and Sudetenlands. It seeks lebensraum. It is operating concentration camps for the “divergent” and ethnically impure. It is eugenic, seeing itself as superior to foreign and local barbarians. It has plans to invade other neighboring democracies. Its declining economic fortunes and rising nationalism require forever war to keep it in power. It seeks imperial overlordship in its continental region and global hegemonic power.
So, the question is this. If you possessed a secret that could destroy the Nazis or ultra-nationalist Japanese parties in 1935. Long before they could launch their apocalypse upon the world. And you had a time machine to unleash it then would you use it?
The funny part is, equipped with this future history under the CCP, Australia possesses just such a secret and the time machine to use it.
It’s called iron ore.
If we accept that the CCP is the latest manifestation of the historical tendency to give rise to political evils intent on dominating the lives of freedom-loving humanity, then why don’t we cut the flow of iron ore right now unless or until China installs a democracy?
The results would be instant. The Chinese economy would be structurally shocked to its knees. 30% of its GDP is real estate-related. 60% of the iron ore that drives it is sourced in Australia. Roughly speaking that is 18% of Chinese GDP that would virtually collapse overnight. Vast tracts of industry would fall silent. An instant debt crisis would sweep the Chinese financial system as its bizarre daisy chain of corruption froze. Local governments likewise. Unemployment would skyrocket.
It’s possible that it would trigger a political revolution in China. Who knows what forces would rise and who would win. What we can say with confidence is that it would pre-occupy the CCP for many years and hobble it permanently. Its plans for regional domination would be set back decades if not be entirely over.
Australia would suffer too. So would the world. It would trigger global recession as financial contagion sent shock waves through global markets. Stock markets would crash. Credit spreads across emerging markets would blow up. Commodity prices would crater.
The Australian dollar would crash straight to 40 cents if not lower.
But, you know what? We’d be OK. The very large initial hit to national income would quickly be offset by the halving currency.
There would be a blow to living standards as our national purchasing power plunged. Imported goods prices would become more expensive (though nowhere near as much as the degree of currency fall). Australians would travel less overseas as well. House prices would no doubt fall for a while but QE would support them again before long.
China would counter-boycott all exports to Australia so we’d see some short-term shortages. In 2018/19, we imported roughly $15bn in useful electronics from China that would need substitution but the rest was pretty much cheap China crap:
We’d quickly source new supply chains or rebuild our own production.
What else might China do? It would contemplate a Pilbara invasion but so long as Australia had Washington’s backing in advance that would be a silly idea quickly dismissed. It would probably bring forward its plans for the invasion of Taiwan or strike west into the “Stans” to distract its suddenly idle masses.
From a realist perspective, this would be a good outcome. Forcing China to move before it is ready would bring forward its ultimate containment. Whichever military adventure it chose, it would force Wall St to stop whoring with the enemy. Europe would fall into line with a mass China boycott. The rosy dawn of Sino-Russian relations would freeze as Putin’s sphere of influence was jeopardised. Countries across the Indo-Pacific would recoil in fear and horror, and join the anti-China liberal bloc.
We’d certainly see cyberwar launched on Australia. As well as soft power war in all multilateral forums. But the backing of the US and other liberal democracies would get us through that. Rare earth minerals would be blocked. But we can ramp that up here. There’d be a whole lot of futile screaming from wolf warriors which we could pack onto a Hercules and drop off in Antarctica.
So, why don’t we do it? Especially since the most likely scenario over the next twenty years is that this all happens anyway. As China’s economy stalls with the end of urbanisation, and it is increasingly blocked from export markets, the iron ore trade will end and the CCP will need wars to stoke nationalism in lieu of prosperity. Why wait until 2035 to let the CCP crush Taiwan, by which time it will have a blue water navy to threaten far-flung democracies and protect global commodity supply chains. Why wait until CCP expansionism threatens WWIII?
The answer to that question also lies back in time. In the 1930s, when we last faced the paradox of supplying bullets to the very fascistic state that was coming south to destroy our way of life, we didn’t stop then either. We were still supplying Imperial Japan with pig iron on the verge of war in 1938, even as its forces slaughtered Chinese peoples in their millions and planned the attack on Pearl Harbour. Australian government support for this idiocy earned the Attorney General Robert G. Menzies the moniker “Pig Iron Bob”.
Within a few short years, that pig iron was slaying young Australians. Yet we had neither the wit nor courage to stop it in advance.
The answer is twofold. First and most importantly, such bold endeavour is very difficult in liberal democracies that are constrained by the limits of accepted public discourse. This is great strength in peacetime as it preserves openness and prosperity. But it becomes a liability when, every so often, an autocratic regime rises to threaten it.
Second and related, we want the cash. Particularly the cash that goes into certain hands. Australia can survive cutting all China trade relatively well, but the iron ore interests that run the joint can’t. They would go from hero to zero overnight.
That’s what you might call political economy inertia. Things can’t change when so many interests are embedded in the architecture of national management. Even when that edifice is a crumbling relic from a bygone age.
Bar one, there is nobody more in the pocket of those interests than “Pig Iron Scott” Morrison. Bizarrely, the one exception is the Australian Labor Party, which defends China and the CCP at every opportunity.
So there’s your answer. We put on a good show but facing the hard truths and planning accordingly is well beyond us“
Blowin... actually one of the major reasons Japan went to war was that raw resources were cut off.
yep, macrobusiness pointing out the bleeding obvious... well what's bleeding obvious to anyone who's dared to think about it...
anything's gotta be better than the slow walk to destruction we are currently on... and tbh, I don't think the initial outcomes would be as dire as macrobusiness paints them to be. I reckon a heap of developing countries are well placed to replace china as the manufacturing hub, which would bring them onside (most clearly are already...) replace our iron ore selling woes, ....and our insatiable greed for cheap shit. it wouldn't happen overnight, but it would happen...
but it's all about short term economics... and our no plan, no policy, but relentlessly talk it up, short term scotty... the lucky country indeed!
and sadly, from those that could offer an alternative...
"Bar one, there is nobody more in the pocket of those interests than “Pig Iron Scott” Morrison. Bizarrely, the one exception is the Australian Labor Party, which defends China and the CCP at every opportunity."
dismal days... and dismal options...
money is sadly the driver of all the current madness we are blindly walking into, (including? / except for labor, ...gawd only knows what it is they are thinking...) and I've got to say sadly its the same for germany, who were most disappointing at the recent G7, ....you'd think a country with their nouse and history could be thinking a little more long term... and dare I say, morally...
credit to france, and that pathetic little internationalist poster child trudeau for stepping up. it seems at least some have the forsight and / or gumption to make the hard calls, ...and to plan for what is so obviously the future...
maybe in another year or few... when the bleeding obvious, is an unfolding pending bloody disaster, we'll change our course, when it's near impossible to do so...
and when the 'master race' suitably has all their envisioned ducks in a row...
Are you referring to 'Macrobusiness' or 'the excellent Macrobusiness site' which is the one Blowin reads?
the 'most excellent' Macrobusinesses
(I'm surprised he hasn't adopted that term...)
In a world where Barnaby Joyce is referred to as the “Right Honourable Barnaby Joyce”, I don’t think my calling a favourable website excellent is out of bounds.
I believe the Japanese version of the site is referred to as “Most Excellent “.
Relating to the above article, it's a situation largely consistent with how I read things. A couple of points: we have done pretty well with re-armament, from the %GDP allocated to the smart shopping of equipment and creation of domestic manufacturing in what are complex industries. I suspect Defence and Intelligence will be informing both sides of politics the same way, and when added to international cooperation, will determine a similar path no matter which politician is in power.
As I Focus said, it was the cutting off of resources that sealed Japan's move south. They were stuck in a quagmire in China, using US oil to fuel their war machine. But - they were also using oil from the Dutch East Indies, and it's here that a more concerning example is shown. While we know the US Pacific fleet was only moved late to Pearl, the Dutch did not have anywhere near as much deterrent. 3 Cruisers and some destroyers, a modicum of air power, and about 120,000 troops scattered through the islands. They had been blessed/cursed with a pacifist government at home throughout the 1920s/30s, and forgot to replace the fleet. None of that helped Admiral Doorman as he went down with the De Ruyter in the Java sea in early 1942. So when they turned off the oil in 1940 (iirc), a world of pain was on the way and the US was in no place to help them.
si vis pacem para bellum
Britain next door had placed its faith in the Singapore strategy shortly after WW1 - upon pressing from Australia. The actual defence was a disaster. The theory was, with war in Asia imminent, Singapore would hold on and the fleet would sail to break any siege. This was conditional on France holding the Med and... er... yeah that didn't happen. The RN was pressed to hold the Med, and no fleet was available.
The US in the Philippines was similarly understrength, planned to rely on the fleet sailing west from Pearl to relieve them, and got swept away - it was a Japanese priority. The speed with which the Japanese army/navy moved was absolutely remarkable - securing Indo China in 1940 really helped them deploy their long range air power to this end, too.
Today, the West is far further forward deployed in the Pacific than the shambles leading up to WW2. Japan's navy and it's protectorates given after WW1 saw them considerably further across the Pacific than China is today - although they are working on this. Cutting resources will probably have a similar affect, though.
I was thinking along similar lines myself, I Focus.
What is the alternative? Keep shipping the materials for the steel which will be used to kill anyone who opposes their totalitarian doctrine?
As stated in the article, the time to act is now. This doesn’t imply military action. If China attacks in the manner of the Japanese in WW2, then the decision to halt iron ore is vindicated. Either way you look at it China is becoming aggressively expansionist. Motions to create CCP naval bases in Solomons and PNG tell you more than enough about their intentions.
maybe ask twiggy...
he's confident there's no war with china
...from his perspective...
Through time and history, repeatedly great powers project their economic might backed up by military strength and action to secure supply of raw materials the US is a recent prime example trying to secure oil out of the middle east.
Read through modern history and the middle east has been repeatedly interfered with solely for the purpose of getting / securing oil.
Australia having such a huge economic reliance on China's thirst for iron ore / coal and other raw materials / agriculture products the first rule is not to beat the war drums.
That is truly fu(kwit territory but then that sums up this current inept government coming up for election, as above this is the first rule "si vis pacem para bellum"
2nd rule keep your enemies closer than your friends while scrambling to prepare for war some where down the road I imagine this will eventuate.
Unlike western powers China plays the long game and plans out far into the future.
The answer for Australia's security at the moment in IMHO is for Australia to do the unthinkable and arm with nuclear weapons which is very unlikely.
I agree with the nuclear weapons.
The best thing to happen to the Oz / China dynamic in the last decade has been Scomo’s ineptitude. It infuriated the CCP enough for them to drop the mask of civility they’ve used to hide their malicious aspirations.
No one talked drumbeats of war until the CCP started beating them. Go check the chronology of events. Blaming talk of war on Scomo and Dutton is like blaming the bird for filling the cat’s mouth with feathers.
Perhaps that was Scomo's 4-D chess, ha!
Also agree on the nukes. In the meantime we're setting up a decent A2AD defence in the north (early days) and developing our own hypersonics as well.
Re: any ports like in the Solomons, I suspect the Chinese trying to resupply them will be a field day for allied subs, much like in the Pacific last time. "I sit by the stream while my enemy builds a port for me, waiting for the time to strike," I think that was in the Art of War or something
The flip side is if allied side is so far forward positioned and it's supply lines are in jeopardy with all the missile tech.
One must always factor in the mindset of leaders that may be quite different to our own when predicting outcomes of aggressive geopolitical strategies.
Mao Tse Tung once was near a large village in China that caught fire. He went and watched and became very animated and seemed to revel in the chaos and destruction. People who studied him concluded that he seemed to regard the prospect of nuclear war in a similar manner - something he was not afraid of and that was an event that would be detached from himself to observe the death and destruction with interest. Very different to how you and I might regard it.
On the Samurai:
In the 13th century, Hōjō Shigetoki wrote: "When one is serving officially or in the master's court, he should not think of a hundred or a thousand people, but should consider only the importance of the master." Carl Steenstrup notes that 13th and 14th century warrior writings (gunki) "portrayed the bushi in their natural element, war, eulogizing such virtues as reckless bravery, fierce family pride, and selfless, at times senseless devotion of master and man". Feudal lords such as Shiba Yoshimasa (1350–1410) stated that a warrior looked forward to a glorious death in the service of a military leader or the emperor: "It is a matter of regret to let the moment when one should die pass by ... First, a man whose profession is the use of arms should think and then act upon not only his own fame, but also that of his descendants. He should not scandalize his name forever by holding his one and only life too dear ... One's main purpose in throwing away his life is to do so either for the sake of the Emperor or in some great undertaking of a military general. It is that exactly that will be the great fame of one's descendants.
Some of that mindset led to WWII.
Or as Mike Tyson said:
"Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth."
WWI was in part dreamed up in the smoky clubs of London - stop Germany's expansion - "tally ho, old bean what we need is a short sharp war to teach them a lesson and screw their economy. They are just too damned good at making stuff those sausage eating Krauts... be over in a matter of months I expect, eh what?"
The boycott iron ore to China thought experiment is interesting but assumes that poking a bear with a sharp stick can have a logical controlled outcome.
Totally agree VJ maintaining supply lines is warfare 101 and to Australia's advantage, but China is working on that how far and how successful remains to be seen.
Historically China has never ever tried to expand through military action other than a few goes at Japan and there is no evidence to date that they are planning to do so most of their current activity is expanding reinforcing the border / sea access points and securing immediate previous held areas (Hongkong and Taiwan etc).
They are using their economic might to influence other countries no different to US and the British Empire whether they back it up military the same as other empires is the question.
Sorry Blowin I recon there would be diplomats screaming at screens watching Morrison talk,
Other Asian countries would be saying you fu(kwitt.
Scomo and his cronies continue to squander a few more vital years of government. What really has been achieved for the wider Australian society on a grass roots level. Future and current issues. This failure at the highest level continues to stifle positive prospects our country should be achieving.
I thought I would never ever have to say this... ever...
but I also agree re. nuclear weapons, seems to be the only possible deterrent we'd have to their rogueness
"The best thing to happen to the Oz / China dynamic in the last decade has been Scomo’s ineptitude. It infuriated the CCP enough for them to drop the mask of civility they’ve used to hide their malicious aspirations."
yep, seems there's some advantage to having a C grade leader with a B grade intellect... frustrate their true intentions out of them...
(too kind? ...D and C maybe...)
(No one talked drumbeats of war until the CCP started beating them. Go check the chronology of events. Blaming talk of war on Scomo and Dutton is like blaming the bird for filling the cat’s mouth with feathers.)
exactly! ...pretty clear who the wolf is... or cat...
it's only our too long standing, arduous, nauseating, dominated into submission silence that could possibly make it appear any different
"Perhaps that was Scomo's 4-D chess, ha!"
if only it was true... we' d all feel a little more comfortable... but alas, the one thing we can all agree on, is that it's far from the case...
"The boycott iron ore to China thought experiment is interesting but assumes that poking a bear with a sharp stick can have a logical controlled outcome."
I'm thinking more controlled withdrawal
long, arduous, frustratingly obtuse, denying intentions all the way, more controlled withdrawal
similar to the chinese water torture like pain they have inflicted on us through our pathetically easily bought politicians
China can get iron ore from South America which is actually a slightly higher grade , the difference is the volumes China demands can’t consistently be guaranteed and shipping is 21 days as opposed to 10 days from Australia
The idea of cutting off iron ore to China is a thought bubble. Look what happened when an extra tax was suggested. Imagine what the reaction would be if a withdrawal of supply to the largest customer was suggested.
"China can get iron ore from South America which is actually a slightly higher grade , the difference is the volumes China demands can’t consistently be guaranteed and shipping is 21 days as opposed to 10 days from Australia"
but i reckon china would wear much of that cost just to spite oz atm. they're sure sounding that way...
I guess what's actually stopping them, is that recent fairly major dam wall collapse in brasil, and the fact the pesky little thing called the corona virus is still ravaging brasil
so while I like to bag australia, ...'the lucky country'... we do have certain qualities that currently make us a much more attractive and reliable source. that mix of old world diligence and systems, with the harsh environment bush mechanic 'can do' attitude and prowess...
a uniqueness in skills and ability that make us quite competent and attractive in certain things, as vj rightly often points out...
but we should seriously appreciate our current position, and treat it with extreme caution, because it will not last...
because the only thing saving oz atm (and short term scotty's arse...) is brasil's misfortune, ...and that will not last. plus there's china's supposedly benevolant belt and road incursions into various poorer african countries, that is almost certainly an attempt to open up alternative iron ore sources there
the god's have unmistakenly shone on australia in recent events... once again... and it would be a very short sighted and dumb australia that would complacently relish in that good luck for too long...
we couldn't possibly be that short sighred and dumb... could we....
the reality is, the gravy train is near the end of the line regardless, so oz really needs to get a bit brighter in our plan for the short term future. I'm not seeing any signs of this from the morrison government... and labor? ...ppfffffffffff!!
Frog that was some excellent stuff on the Samurai. You can really see it in some of the Pacific actions in WW2 as well - Yamaguchi Tamon charging the Americans with his precious last fleet carrier as the rest of the force was in flames; Takagi Takeo being censured for withdrawing following his carriers being mauled; Mikawa Gunichi getting similar after withdrawing - only he had just handed the Americans their worst naval defeat in history in one of the most decisive battles of the war. Then there's the last suicide mission of the Yamato...
Edit: Yamaguchi is one of my favourite characters, players, in history. A hard drinking, hard fighting carrier commander, absolutely gung-ho. A true oriental hero. It's his historical parting that sends a chill down the spine - his ship is wrecked by fire (a result of aforementioned recklessness/samurai spirit), dusk is approaching, the crew has nearly left. The officers and men beg him to leave the ship and fight another day - he refuses, staying with the captain and the ship.
'As the men began leaving, Kaku turned to Yamaguchi and said "I am going to share the fate of the ship, sir." The admiral agreed, and both men began calmly admiring the moon. Yamaguchi said to Kaku, "Let us enjoy the beauty of the moon." "How bright it shines," Kaku agreed, "It must be in its twenty-first day." '
Sypy, just build a big mother rail line from Bowen Basin to Pilbara, our coal to our iron ore, build huge smelters, begin to value add on a massive scale, create an industrial powerhouse up there (jerbs). In doing so, the country gets the scale of manufacturing needed to properly defend itself. Just don't cut and paste this comment in the CO2 thread lol
Agreed....and feed our workers on crays, ab's and the other premium seafood we ship out.....
@vj , building a railway line from the Gladstone to the Pilbara has actually been talked about for years . It would be one hell of job and the cost would be hard to estimate . I worked on $500 million project that was only 180 klms long and they nearly spent that in the first 50 klms as they couldn’t get the compaction due to crap soil and did the job 3 times before it was excepted . Never seen such a waste of money due to incompetence from contractor and client. http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2005/06/27/1119724578324.html
"Sypy, just build a big mother rail line from Bowen Basin to Pilbara, our coal to our iron ore, build huge smelters, begin to value add on a massive scale, create an industrial powerhouse up there (jerbs). In doing so, the country gets the scale of manufacturing needed to properly defend itself. Just don't cut and paste this comment in the CO2 thread lol"
it's so bloody obvious and sensible, it couldn't possibly happen...
and on the CO2 front, ...from a w/hollistic approach... (if I can borrow that much misused and overused word), surely it emits less CO2 processing here, rather than shipping copious amounts of bulk raw contaminated material to china to be processed then shipped back?
processed under much less stringent regulations...
shipping and processing shitloads of waste material...
and we could export the finished product utilising tightly packed and much more efficient shipping methods... the footprint would have to be way smaller...
we might need some migrant labour though to enable such a visionary project...
paging mr. blowin
Supafreak.....your last sentence is the folly of most top end projects in the last 20 years......Top heavy management, over the top and ridiculous safety protocols, unions, large percentage of 'dairy farmer' FIFO workers just milking the cow etc.....
@megzee , on that particular job the middle man was a group called FAST , which got dubbed Fuckup A Simple Task. And the L in Leightons stands for litigation
I reckon this one is good news:
Curious about the vegemite themed surfboard...
One thing that I thought really good for the kids was that professional qualifications in one country will be recognised in the other... Looks like tarrifs on Range Rovers to be slashed too...
So if Leightons, John Holland Group, McDermott's or McConnell Dowe tender for the Gladstone- Port Headland rail project, I would say $300 Bn for each year of the 35 year project.
Oi, Oi, Oi
@vj , Australian cane growers will be jumping for joy too I reckon, poms have got bit of a sweet tooth. Sounds better than the China FTA where any project over $150 million they could bring in their own workforce and their plumbers and sparkies didnt have to be Australian credited , who the fuck came up with that deal ? They wanted to build a mine , rail and port just south of karratha , 10 billion $ project. Don’t know what happened to that , it was about 6-7 years ago
A "New Dawn" - just wake up in 15 years time.
Insane the amounts of money mentioned in the above statements. Hard to fathom the waste from FAST
Australian government has just approved oil and gas exploration in sw vic pc area and wa. Can someone please upload abc media report on this. Why risk it. 12 apostles wouldn't be happy
It wont happen.
Thank you udo.
Pristine part of Australia that hopefully stays unharmed. Be good to hear a bit more on updates from locals through out the area and what they know surrounding this new announcement from the government.