The United States(!) of A
gsco wrote:What a disgraceful disaster for humanity this whole situation is.
What a spectacular failure of the international system, order, and major powers.
Every stakeholder in this situation - US, Russia, Ukraine, UN, EU, UK, NATO, etc - needs to spend significant time in the room of mirrors being brutally honest to themselves about their role in contributing to this situation.
How did things come to Putin being so enraged, so backed into a corner and so out of diplomatic options that he resorted to invading a whole country?
What a trajectory humanity is now suddenly now on.
How is he backed into a corner?
The diplomatic community has tried to engage and work with Russia…you can’t force a country under autocratic rule to play by certain rules.
Putin is a megalomaniac that does want more power. The current situation is nearly all on Putin…blaming others is an excuse.
This is a decent read, providing the counterpoint to many of Putin’s (and his sympathisers’) hysterical accusations about NATO. Read it, or don’t.
It's an equally massive failure by all parties involved and no one single party is solely to blame, no matter how badly one wants to believe so and wishes it to be true.
gsco wrote:It's an equally massive failure by all parties involved and no one single party is solely to blame, no matter how badly one wants to believe so and wishes it to be true.
While there may be contributing factors that can be considered in the wider geostrategic realm, the decision to undertake, and now continue and potentially to escalate, decisive military action against Ukraine is Putin’s and his alone. At least you can call that out.
Kind of weird being able to actually watch a war unfold these days online, especially a non middle eastern country (that you always expect to be unrest or war in)
Makes you glad to live in a country like Australia, but she shouldn't take our peace and prosperity for granted, everyone might hate the word patriot but one day we might have to all do what may Ukraine's are doing and become a patriot and fight for our country.
Only other comment I would make is the media coverage from both sides and across all platforms is just a disgraceful hyper-intensity of misinformation and propaganda straight out of Chomsky's playbook. Another completely embarrassing disgrace to humanity that is also part of the cause of the whole situation in the first place. And our ABC is the worst of the lot.
gsco wrote:Only other comment I would make is the media coverage from both sides is just a disgraceful hyper-intensity of misinformation and propaganda straight out of Chomsky's playbook. Another completely embarrassing disgrace to humanity that is also part of the problem of the whole situation in the first place. And our ABC is the worst of the lot.
I won’t disagree with that. I read a piece by Laura Tingle yesterday that was embarrassing in its lack of analysis.
I’ve stopped reading it. There’s so many better balanced and insightful resources out there.
gsco wrote:It's an equally massive failure by all parties involved and no one single party is solely to blame, no matter how badly one wants to believe so and wishes it to be true.
BS…there is not equal blame.
However feel free to explain how the blame is equally spread?
On a slightly positive note, my contingent of friends who are Russian is like most people relatively small, but the smattering of the ones i do have in Australia, and around the world (all younger generation) are condemning Putin and calling for Russian soldiers to put down their weapons and stop immediately. None of them live in Russia however, under Putin's regime, so not sure how the general population of Russia is viewing the attrocities he's currently dealing to the Ukranian people. Can only hope the larger Russian population are seeing this for what it is, an unprovoked violent attack. I can't accept that there's any reasonable excuse why their military would enter their country and start destroying lives and properties.
The pen is still as mighty as the sword
Abc news
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-27/russia-cracks-down-on-media-for-r...
Check it out, Belarus Today, one of Belarus' biggest papers, not even a mention of it on their front page. Just links to it on sidebar in the breaking section.
Don't mention the war huh? Extreme propaganda?
https://www.sb.by/
Robwilliams wrote:The pen is still as mighty as the sword
Abc news
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-27/russia-cracks-down-on-media-for-r...
Western nations like the United States Great Britain and Australia are clearly a lot more advanced than Russia.
Russia has to threaten its press whereas western press has largely already been brought to heel.
Manufacturing consent?
Robwilliams wrote:The pen is still as mighty as the sword
Abc news
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-27/russia-cracks-down-on-media-for-r...
Dictators, autocratic rulers, assholes, African kingdoms etc etc, don’t have the control as previous. The internet and social media spreads info far faster than print media. Pretty hard to bs the public now days.
Russia won’t be able to promote the controlled bias news they want to spread.
Things are looking pretty bad for Putin. Could be the end of him. He ain’t got many friends that will take him in.
bluediamond wrote:Check it out, Belarus Today, one of Belarus' biggest papers, not even a mention of it on their front page. Just links to it on sidebar in the breaking section.
Don't mention the war huh? Extreme propaganda?
https://www.sb.by/
Lukashenko…freely gives blow jobs to Putin. He is a committed fan boy.
The west is going after rich Russians all around the world. They will limit travel, cancel visas, remove kids from schooling…it has started with sports, f1 and football. Start confiscating homes, private planes, yachts, cars. They will do this to cause mumbling at home…none of these rich Russians wants to live in Russia.
I would continue this…add tennis players and any other sports players doing their thing anywhere. Make them condemn Putin and the leaders or go home.
Stop the money flowing and people start to squeal.
Roadkill wrote:The west is going after rich Russians all around the world. They will limit travel, cancel visas, remove kids from schooling…it has started with sports, f1 and football. Start confiscating homes, private planes, yachts, cars. They will do this to cause mumbling at home…none of these rich Russians wants to live in Russia.
I would continue this…add tennis players and any other sports players doing their thing anywhere. Make them condemn Putin and the leaders or go home.
Stop the money flowing and people start to squeal.
The more this is done the more effect it will have. Who's in your air bnbs restaurants business. Yes moneys tight but collective effort counts. You don't have to be nasty. Just ethical. Until pressure is felt. I don't hate Russians. Referring to Andy m and your other comment about media freedoms. We new this was going to happen. Common tactic of suppression in most conflicts. My known experience is they will filter everything and anything they can. The people in Ukraine will deliver what they can under the circumstances as they unfold. I fully support peace protests anywhere in the world
And the application of peaceful pressure. Boycott. Avoid
and condem Russia's actions where possible. If it moves into occupation and gorilla warfare at a later date. War crimes will be certain. Ugly truth is war sets its own rules so often. Despite agreements. Global collective towards peace anything less is an injustice to Ukraine at this stage. I don't really want to add to the glory talk of war but for those that defend the rights of peace I will always stand with you as I stand with Ukraine. Truma from past conflicts are still deeply embedded in my family. Freedom is the greatest gold on earth and peace to all fuck Putin
I’m increasingly of the view that Xi has had a significant hand in underwriting Putin’s confidence. China now have a critical role in convincing Putin to walk back off the cliff of insanity. I’m not directly linking Ukraine with Taiwan. It’s far more nuanced than that, as the link I posted a week ago outlines. Taiwan aside, there’s a lot in it for the CCP;
1. If Putin had succeeded in his military operation quickly, ‘cleanly’ and Ukrainian political leadership, military will and popular support had collapsed, it would have reinforced the decline of ‘the West’, highlighted the flakiness of US support for ‘allies’ and caused a lot of countries to take notice. This opportunity has passed, in my assessment.
2. If Putin’s adventure fails or drags out into an extended quagmire (which looks increasingly likely), then Xi may be able to demonstrate diplomatic clout with Putin. Perhaps coming out as a ‘neutral’ mediator with an reinforced global role / reputation. This would reinforce their sense of place and their narrative that they are the peaceful authoritarians.
3. Either way, Russia will be isolated diplomatically and probably financially from global affairs and markets. This outcome was apparent from the start of the sabre-rattling. What I think this does is increase Russia’s dependency on China. Recent reports have highlighted the lifeline that China has thrown Russia on trade. But this comes at a cost, concentration of markets gives the CCP a lot of leverage over Russia. A helluva lot. Over time, if Russia’s dependency continues / increases they’re a on short road to vassal statehood. Don’t forget that China and Russia have historical territorial rub points in the East.
4. Look at the the timing of their ‘no limits’ announcement and the delay of the launch of the assault until right after the Olympics concluded. This delay in the launch of the Russian offensive will not play in their favour as the spring thaw starts. This will start to reduce the ability of Russian forces to manoeuvre cross-country, further channeling their fighting echelons, but more importantly their already vulnerable resupply, onto formed roads.
TL:DR?
I think it is likely that China has played a strategically smart, and significant, role in encouraging Putin’s military adventurism.
Another cogent analysis from Stan Grant on the diminution of US hegemony:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-27/war-on-ukraine-where-did-americas...
Interestingly Russias' GDP is similar to Brazil and Australia, however Russia has a disproportionate influence on geopolitics (particularly in the use of proxies to pursue its' foreign policy objectives)
https://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GDP.pdf
Robw:
I’m going to be a pedant… it’s “guerrilla” warfare.
Robwilliams wrote:Roadkill wrote:The west is going after rich Russians all around the world. They will limit travel, cancel visas, remove kids from schooling…it has started with sports, f1 and football. Start confiscating homes, private planes, yachts, cars. They will do this to cause mumbling at home…none of these rich Russians wants to live in Russia.
I would continue this…add tennis players and any other sports players doing their thing anywhere. Make them condemn Putin and the leaders or go home.
Stop the money flowing and people start to squeal.The more this is done the more effect it will have. Who's in your air bnbs restaurants business. Yes moneys tight but collective effort counts. You don't have to be nasty. Just ethical. Until pressure is felt. I don't hate Russians. Referring to Andy m and your other comment about media freedoms. We new this was going to happen. Common tactic of suppression in most conflicts. My known experience is they will filter everything and anything they can. The people in Ukraine will deliver what they can under the circumstances as they unfold. I fully support peace protests anywhere in the world
And the application of peaceful pressure. Boycott. Avoid
and condem Russia's actions where possible. If it moves into occupation and gorilla warfare at a later date. War crimes will be certain. Ugly truth is war sets its own rules so often. Despite agreements. Global collective towards peace anything less is an injustice to Ukraine at this stage. I don't really want to add to the glory talk of war but for those that defend the rights of peace I will always stand with you as I stand with Ukraine. Truma from past conflicts are still deeply embedded in my family. Freedom is the greatest gold on earth and peace to all fuck Putin
I don’t think Russians, other than a few nationalists, want war, Russians are sick and tired of conflict because their leaders are assholes. The army on the most part looks like a bunch of guys that needed jobs.
The whole thing is sad and stupid and as usual the innocent will die and suffer and kill.
Bang on RK. There’s more protest in Russia coming. I feel for the mums and dads of Russian kids who are dying for nothing in an unjust, pointless and ego-driven war.
etarip wrote:Robw:
I’m going to be a pedant… it’s “guerrilla” warfare.
Yes. I'm having trouble with text pad and correction. Unable edit some times. Outside of that my brain is occupied. No offence intended. I knew it but couldn't change it. Tech novice
Robw: all good. It does my head in, but I’ve had so many autocorrect fails myself that I shouldn’t be commenting on someone else’s
Etarip what exactly do you think Putin’s military objectives are here? What’s he trying to achieve, what’s his plan?
etarip wrote:Robw: all good. It does my head in, but I’ve had so many autocorrect fails myself that I shouldn’t be commenting on someone else’s
I'm almost sure I'm a dyslexic guerrilla.
gsco wrote:Etarip what exactly do you think Putin’s military objectives are here? What’s he trying to achieve, what’s his plan?
Million dollar question gsco.
(Actually estimated as a 20bn dollar / day question)
Break it down into 2 parts. What did he want and what’s next.
I think he went for broke. All-in. He wanted to force the collapse of the Ukrainian military, the capitulation of the government and the destruction of the will to resist of the Ukrainians. Goal: regime change.
I think he failed in his objectives, with the operational plan he employed. I’ve outlined my thoughts on this a few pages back. Russian Army simply not capable of conducting the type of operation he wanted. Ukrainian Army was better than he expected.
What does he do now?
Unfortunately, I think he’s going to double and triple down. He’s toast domestically if he doesn’t ‘win’. His forces are still incapable of doing this ‘cleanly’ so they’ll go back to what they know: the Russian way of war. Massed fires, echeloned forces and damn the casualties and collateral damage. The Ukrainians will get better at targeting the very thing that Putin relies on for ‘surgical’ operations - battlefield aviation - as stingers arrive. So, Russians will increasingly use indirect fire - rockets and artillery - to pave the way for their shithouse infantry.
By tripling down I don’t rule out threatening the West to cease supply of weapons to Ukraine. And no limits on his threats. I now fully believe that Putin has gone from being a rational actor.
The only alternate plan for him now is to seize as much territory as he can as a bargaining chip in case he’s forced to the table (see my comments on China above). Problem is, that holding that ground will not exert the influence he thinks it will, and it will come with an ongoing cost.
Short answer, fuck knows.
Roadkill wrote:gsco wrote:It's an equally massive failure by all parties involved and no one single party is solely to blame, no matter how badly one wants to believe so and wishes it to be true.
BS…there is not equal blame.
However feel free to explain how the blame is equally spread?
Pretty quiet there, gsco?
Would love you to explain how the UK, UN, USA, EU etc etc are all equally to blame as Putin for him invading Ukraine?
Thanks Etraip. Yes it's very hard to see where Putin is going with this and what is the intended end goal. I've been reading all your stuff above and finding it really interesting. Re China, I think there is a very strong chance Putin has even surprised China too since there's a lot of Chinese stuck in Ukraine and they appear to be having a meltdown and panic about how to stay safe.
Roadkill, you're welcome to read some books and non-popular-media commentary and analysis of the past say 150 years of modern history, and specifically European history, the cold war, US-Russia relations, NATO and the UN, etc.
gsco wrote:Thanks Etraip. Yes it's very hard to see where Putin is going with this and what is the intended end goal. I've been reading all your stuff above and finding it really interesting. Re China, I think there is a very strong chance Putin has even surprised China too since there's a lot of Chinese stuck in Ukraine and they appear to be having a meltdown and panic about how to stay safe.
Roadkill, you're welcome to read some books and non-popular-media commentary and analysis of the past say 150 years of modern history, and specifically European history, the cold war, US-Russia relations, NATO and the UN, etc.
A book is not going to tell me why you think blame for Putin’s invasion is equally spread amongst the countries and orgs you said are equally to blame.
I’m trying to work out why someone would think that.
You made the call, expand on the thinking.
Are you not able to? Is it easy to make excuses now you have said it?
haha. This is pretty classic
Ukrainian government ask people to help in disorienting the Russian army. Sign reads - ⬆️ go fuck yourself. ⬅️ go fuck yourself again ➡️ go fuck yourself in Russia #RussianArmy #GloryToUkraine pic.twitter.com/IeucFUDGVB
— Tania Khodakivska (@TKhodakivska) February 26, 2022
The media around Russian money is pretty interesting in the UK. The 2 main parties have both received quite a bit…both are trying to walk it back..both are blaming each other as guilty.
It’s a murky murky world full of deceit and obfuscation.
Roadkill wrote:The media around Russian money is pretty interesting in the UK. The 2 main parties have both received quite a bit…both are trying to walk it back..both are blaming each other as guilty.
It’s a murky murky world full of deceit and obfuscation.
heard plenty of crew say they've had inquries into this for over 10 years now, and the conclusion is always the same, UK (especially london) is awash with russian corruption money and they need to do something about it...
nothing was done
it was actually a big issue around brexit, and housing affordability being out of control due to russian corruption money buying real estate - bit like australia, except we service the chinese mafia rather than the russians...
so many warning signs have been ignored... so many chickens coming home to roost...
same with germany being warned not to make themselves reliant on russian gas... now about 60-70% reliant for their energy needs i heard the other day
the extreme globalisation / neoliberal world order is well and truly done now... you would hope... she's a stubborn bohemoth...
china trying to stay out of it...
china trying to appear they've stayed out of it...
its all bullshit, they are colluding big time, heard they have cut a deal with russia to ensure their border is safe so russia can move all required military hardware from russia china border
With so much misinformation/disinformation it’s hard to know what’s what with all the various stories . This guy who I have know idea if he’s authentic or not ( disabled war vet ) has put up a lot of posts debunking stories from the war .
Snake Island incident turns out to be a hoax and 82+ surrendered now??? Really? Seems someone has explaining to do… pic.twitter.com/odL6pPDHac
— Bryan McNally (@BryanDMcNally) February 26, 2022
sypkan wrote:china trying to stay out of it...
china trying to appear they've stayed out of it...
its all bullshit, they are colluding big time, heard they have cut a deal with russia to ensure their border is safe so russia can move all required military hardware from russia china border
China in it up to their elbows. My comment above.
Jeez hows the unseen 911 footage.
Agree, fully immersed and watching the play book unfold for their Taiwan plans
udo wrote:Jeez hows the unseen 911 footage.
@udo , I looked at that and was thinking how could people possibly believe that 911 was fake .
etarip wrote:sypkan wrote:china trying to stay out of it...
china trying to appear they've stayed out of it...
its all bullshit, they are colluding big time, heard they have cut a deal with russia to ensure their border is safe so russia can move all required military hardware from russia china border
China in it up to their elbows. My comment above.
100%. And watching the world watch. Kind of trying to distance themselves from active complicit support.
China knew all that was going to happen. Putin was in China for the Olympics but not really there for the Olympics. A convenient excuse.
Supafreak wrote:udo wrote:Jeez hows the unseen 911 footage.
@udo , I looked at that and was thinking how could people possibly believe that 911 was fake .
For the same reason people believe covid is fake, vaccines don’t work and it's all about govt control.
Finally some people can see beyond the conspiracy theories and see whats really
happening. Yes China and Russia are colluding together and are going to make
a real war they are making a move for world domination and guess what we wont
be relatively spared like WW2 we are Chinas No1 target. We are in real shit and
so is the world. Now watch all the hating American bitches on here cry for help
from our only hope good old USA.
Thought the same Supa..
seaslug wrote:Agree, fully immersed and watching the play book unfold for their Taiwan plans
Hopefully they’re taking the right lessons out of it…
Ukraine is a largely rural country of 41m, surrounded on 3 sides by Russia / Russian allies (actually 4 if you include Moldova). The US has explicitly stated that they will not put boots on the ground in support of Ukraine. Russia haven’t been able to take a single operational objective.
Taiwan is a largely urbanised country of 35 million that is 80km at its closest point to mainland China. It is under a security treaty with the US. Anyone who thinks that an successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a fait accompli has not read much military history. Especially if the Taiwanese are half as motivated as the Ukrainians.
That’s what I hope China is taking away from this. And they don’t revert to war.
udo wrote:
Can you really take this serious when Morrison is spoken about as being the same and having the same motivation as Putin?
What a dick comment from Doherty.
Not a massive fan of guardian reporting. But this is a good read, from a Russian, on a historical perspective on how we ended up with the Putin that we did. It’s very Russian in its style, FR76 would be proud, but I think it is a great counterpoint to the ‘cornered Putin’ that some would like us to picture.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/27/vladimir-putin-rus...
Paging Vladalotovodka....
Hope he hasn't been sent to the front.
Good read from Lawrence Freedman:
https://samf.substack.com/p/the-fight-for-ukraine?utm_campaign=post
Belarus getting involved, like a good Putin lap dog. Putin puts nukes on special alert..due to Nato aggression.
Putin is losing his marbles.
Reporting that he’s fired his military chief and now put nuclear forces on alert. Are the two events linked?
The outcome of this debacle may just be regime change. Not in Ukraine. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.
Septic Tanks are going to Septic Tank