COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Thursday, 9 Dec 2021 at 2:24pm

F76006-A7-37-F3-4-CCE-87-DE-EB6695-A0-EEF0

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Thursday, 9 Dec 2021 at 2:27pm

Absolutely sickening. Im glad i will NEVER get on this booster registration and as time goes by i guarantee people will begin to question and doubt what is happening. Fuck i even have hope for VicLocal.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 9 Dec 2021 at 2:40pm
Supafreak wrote:

F76006-A7-37-F3-4-CCE-87-DE-EB6695-A0-EEF0

That’s excellent

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Thursday, 9 Dec 2021 at 2:45pm

Yet it begins again.

Out come the cry babies, wishing and praying for this problem to go away so badly, that they go into denial.

'But....but....covid is still a thing!!? My attention span requires a death rate of 50% and/or for this to all be over within a week or so for me to really comprehend it!!!! I know, I'll search out some comforting facts: Oh, here we go, this website says this new variant is not too bad, I'll cherry pick that one, also, it Sky News commentators have said I should direct my confused anger at the Labour Government, it's their fault - Sack Dan Andrews/Paluchek/McGowan!'

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 9 Dec 2021 at 3:12pm
Stok wrote:

Yet it begins again.

Out come the cry babies, wishing and praying for this problem to go away so badly, that they go into denial.

'But....but....covid is still a thing!!? My attention span requires a death rate of 50% and/or for this to all be over within a week or so for me to really comprehend it!!!! I know, I'll search out some comforting facts: Oh, here we go, this website says this new variant is not too bad, I'll cherry pick that one, also, it Sky News commentators have said I should direct my confused anger at the Labour Government, it's their fault - Sack Dan Andrews/Paluchek/McGowan!'

Or,…you could just accept that the whole deal is 90% piss take.

Roker's picture
Roker's picture
Roker Thursday, 9 Dec 2021 at 3:46pm

Jacinta rallying to the cause of the freedom fighters who ring the talk back and demand governments counter vax apartheid by implementing apartheid against the obese and anyone who makes unhealthy lifestyle choices. You know, deny them hospital treatment, tax them into penury, ban this, ban that, etc.

NZers will no longer be free to smoke cigarettes.

What next? No longer free to drink alcohol, obviously. And junk food. No longer free to undertake ‘action sports’? Maybe. A potentially unhealthy lifestyle choice after all - liable to encumber the health system.

Go Jacinta! This is just the beginning.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/new-zealand-to-ban-smoking...

Constance B Gibson's picture
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Constance B Gibson Thursday, 9 Dec 2021 at 5:56pm

I dunno Roker...maybe we should ask the self-loathing chubsters on here?

Bloke-in! Come on down!

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Thursday, 9 Dec 2021 at 6:00pm
Roker wrote:

Jacinta rallying to the cause of the freedom fighters who ring the talk back and demand governments counter vax apartheid by implementing apartheid against the obese and anyone who makes unhealthy lifestyle choices. You know, deny them hospital treatment, tax them into penury, ban this, ban that, etc.

NZers will no longer be free to smoke cigarettes.

What next? No longer free to drink alcohol, obviously. And junk food. No longer free to undertake ‘action sports’? Maybe. A potentially unhealthy lifestyle choice after all - liable to encumber the health system.

Go Jacinta! This is just the beginning.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/new-zealand-to-ban-smoking...

She's nuts. NZ is going down the gurgler.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 9 Dec 2021 at 6:40pm

The New Zealand Temperance Society has been called to arms!

First they came for the smokers and I said nothing because I’m not a smoker etc etc.

I reckon durry smoking is the most pointless, wasteful and destructive exercise a person could ever participate in but I’m wary of this being the start of a slippery slope. Almost all would agree the world would be better off if smoking weren’t a part of it for future generations. I’m also sure there’s many would say the same for drinking to excess. Or drinking piss full stop. Or sugar free fast food. Or eating too much. Or …..whatever your personal indulgence/ vice is that other people can take or leave.

The ideology of absolutism, particularly when it’s ascribed to denying others their bodily autonomy and life choices, makes me very uncomfortable at best and pretty fucken angry the rest of the time.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 9 Dec 2021 at 6:42pm
Roker wrote:

Jacinta rallying to the cause of the freedom fighters who ring the talk back and demand governments counter vax apartheid by implementing apartheid against the obese and anyone who makes unhealthy lifestyle choices. You know, deny them hospital treatment, tax them into penury, ban this, ban that, etc.

NZers will no longer be free to smoke cigarettes.

What next? No longer free to drink alcohol, obviously. And junk food. No longer free to undertake ‘action sports’? Maybe. A potentially unhealthy lifestyle choice after all - liable to encumber the health system.

Go Jacinta! This is just the beginning.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/new-zealand-to-ban-smoking...

Did you really just blame the people who have argued against the Horse Head’s initial forays into authoritarianism for her expanding authoritarianism?

FFS

Heaven forbid we should point the finger at the problem itself.

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Thursday, 9 Dec 2021 at 7:38pm

More misogyny. Still living in the 70s mate? Shirley's dead digger! The world has moved on........and here you are spouting obnoxious shit day after day. What have you got this evening? OK place your bets.

Constance B Gibson's picture
Constance B Gibson's picture
Constance B Gibson Thursday, 9 Dec 2021 at 7:42pm

'Pedrafiles' for a carton of sparks? 'Dictator Dan' won't get ya a stubby of NSW pish.

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Indorelaparoscopy Thursday, 9 Dec 2021 at 9:09pm

The study used data on daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths from WHO websites and local and national governments; data on hospital capacity and utilization for US states; and observed COVID-19 usage data from select locations to develop a statistical model predicting deaths and hospital use against capacity by the state for the US

truebluebasher's picture
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truebluebasher Thursday, 9 Dec 2021 at 10:28pm

Cruisin' USA with Covid.
1st May CDC censored all testing and recording of Vaccinated Break Thru / Waning Cases.
This CDC censorship extended onto Cruise Ships.
Passengers complain they're not told of cruise outbreaks until passengers are dumped at Foreign Port.
It is the Foreign Port that informs them of any Cruise Covid Status never the Company!

tbb went searching for any hidden CDC cruise records...
Just as a starter! Most ships require Full Vax + Industry settled for "Political > 95% vaxed "
Due to the fact that most Cruise passengers are half dead & pack a dozen vax exemptions!
*Crew were often spreading the Covid amongst themselves, by day 3 > onto passengers...
*Crew then often service these Private VIP cabins that backwash the Covid.

There are 2 sets of Data sharing the same start date + some loose extra Data.
26th June - 26th Aug > 452 cruise infections
26th June - 21st Oct > 1,359 cruise infections
Ship Total (Only) 1,359 cases (Breakdown) 49 Hospital cases + 38 Medi Vacs + 2 deaths (1 n/a)

2 largest Ship outbreaks were 105 cases + 112 cases
(One of these possibly reads as 2 cruises on a turnaround ship!) Like the Oz Cruises, go back for more!
Cruise Companies admit to not following up onshore outbreaks 1/20 is reported as default infection.
That seems to ring true with crew as well...kinda like a standard outbreak on any ship! ("Just the 20!")
Mostly as many won't realize they're infected and simply go about their way.
Possible Total 1,359 x 20 maximum Port Town cases ( Reason for CDC to censor real time Cruise Data)

All recall how these cases dragged out for weeks / months upon Cruise Closure...a real dampener!
More importantly any real time tracking may link non passenger deaths to Cruise Industry! Not Good!

In the wash up...(95%-100% onboard Vaxed) 1,359 / 600,000 passengers = 1/226.5 Vax infection rate
Weird how the World has flipped on it's head, as Highly Vaxed nations would now kill for that infection rate!
Infectious Cruise is surprisingly safer onboard than risking shore leave at any 20-100% Vaxed Ports.
Passengers are equally as safe to visit any 10% Vaxed Ports or safer with Lowest vaxed Ports.
Not sure if safe Low Vaxed Ports would risk welcoming Fully Vaxed Cruise Passengers!

Here's the CDC Cruise Report + Links to report...just in case pdf don't link...
https://www.dropbox.com/s/pf4hzhvtxd4fnvu/CDC-CSO-Extension-10-25-21-p.p...
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/us-cruise-ships-cov...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2021/11/05/covid-cruise-cdc-positi...

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Thursday, 9 Dec 2021 at 10:35pm
mikehunt207's picture
mikehunt207's picture
mikehunt207 Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 12:52am

We get the stance you are pushing Burleigh but posting links to pop up add bearing weird news outlets doesnt help your cause much and the fact you have never participated in these forums in the past makes it look seem you are just here to stir shit with the anti vax agenda
Yawn

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 7:18am
Island Bay wrote:
Roker wrote:

Jacinta rallying to the cause of the freedom fighters who ring the talk back and demand governments counter vax apartheid by implementing apartheid against the obese and anyone who makes unhealthy lifestyle choices. You know, deny them hospital treatment, tax them into penury, ban this, ban that, etc.

NZers will no longer be free to smoke cigarettes.

What next? No longer free to drink alcohol, obviously. And junk food. No longer free to undertake ‘action sports’? Maybe. A potentially unhealthy lifestyle choice after all - liable to encumber the health system.

Go Jacinta! This is just the beginning.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/09/new-zealand-to-ban-smoking...

She's nuts. NZ is going down the gurgler.

Worst PM leading the worst govt ever. The view on Cindy from outside the bubble is nothing like the reality…mind you…the stupid Kiwis that voted her in have no one to blame but themselves.

Roadkill's picture
Roadkill's picture
Roadkill Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 7:22am

However, banning smoking is a good thing. I hope Australia follows.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 8:28am

Given the amount of toxic anti-vax /alt right bullshit flowing, there may be one little positive. I'm tipping the burleighs, blowins, and shortenisms of this world will be so distracted, 2021 might be the first year in a generation that Christmas doesn't get stolen by Muslims / minorities /PC mob.

overthefalls's picture
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overthefalls Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 9:21am

Bitchute, Instagram, The Expose ...... What next? You're right, mikehunt207; these sources don't do much for the anti-vaxxers' cause. If anything, they just make it look like they're scraping the bottom of the rabbit hole.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 9:49am
overthefalls wrote:

Bitchute, Instagram, The Expose ...... What next? You're right, mikehunt207; these sources don't do much for the anti-vaxxers' cause. If anything, they just make it look like they're scraping the bottom of the rabbit hole.

And the speakers list at the Melbourne anti-everything rallies makes the bar scene in Star Wars look like a quiet library.
What sort of fucked up mob think that shithead who defaced a memorial to Eurydice Dixon is a suitable person to rally around? For those who don't know this story, Eurydice was a much loved comedian who was raped and murdered in a park in Melbourne. Andrew Nolch (now a prominent anti-everything fuckwit) decided to make a stand for "Men's rights" by burning a giant dick into the memorial using weed killer.
"yeah let's get Nolch to speak at the rallies. He's got important things to say". FFS this mob are a pack of dogs.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 10:36am
Vic Local wrote:
overthefalls wrote:

Bitchute, Instagram, The Expose ...... What next? You're right, mikehunt207; these sources don't do much for the anti-vaxxers' cause. If anything, they just make it look like they're scraping the bottom of the rabbit hole.

And the speakers list at the Melbourne anti-everything rallies makes the bar scene in Star Wars look like a quiet library.
What sort of fucked up mob think that shithead who defaced a memorial to Eurydice Dixon is a suitable person to rally around? For those who don't know this story, Eurydice was a much loved comedian who was raped and murdered in a park in Melbourne. Andrew Nolch (now a prominent anti-everything fuckwit) decided to make a stand for "Men's rights" by burning a giant dick into the memorial using weed killer.
"yeah let's get Nolch to speak at the rallies. He's got important things to say". FFS this mob are a pack of dogs.

Says the bloke who’s still mopping up his tears after a fella who was convicted of multiple child rapes was shot when he attacked another young bloke in the states.

What sort of fucked up mob think a convicted paedophile is a suitable person to rally around?

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 11:05am

Oh FFS blowin you complete and utter moron. Who here rallied around the convicted pedophile? nobody. That's just a figment of your truly fucked up imagination. The debate was all about the ridiculous situation where a 17 year old kid could arm himself with military grade weaponry and play policeman, shooting 2 people dead and seriously wounding a third. The history of the people getting shot is irrelevant and you know it. It's not like shittenhouse took a character reference before squeezing the trigger.
The reality is, the people pulling the strings of the anti-everything protests in Australia (your people) are all deeply flawed fuckwits. Scammers, racists, idiots, and incels. You'd have to A. support these scumbags or B. be so stupid not to realise you're being played or C. both of the above.
I'm going to put you down for C.

Constance B Gibson's picture
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Constance B Gibson Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 11:24am

Huzzah! A day late, and a dollar short, but cheers for the carton, Blokey! You're the gift that just keeps giving!

fitzroy-21's picture
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fitzroy-21 Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 11:27am
Vic Local wrote:

The debate .

On what planet do you ever debate on? Certainly not here. You yell, scream, shout down and spew forth hate for anyone with a different view to your own. Your sanctimony knows no bounds.

Debate, funniest thing I have ever read on here all year.

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 12:59pm
mikehunt207 wrote:

We get the stance you are pushing Burleigh but posting links to pop up add bearing weird news outlets doesnt help your cause much and the fact you have never participated in these forums in the past makes it look seem you are just here to stir shit with the anti vax agenda
Yawn

Been a paid member here for years and make comments from time to time on things that matter.
Doesnt matter where the information comes from, feel free to fact check it, or find a gramma mistake and completely write it off like Craig, VicMoron, Roadkill and blindy

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 2:23pm

Thoughts on several comments from the QLD premier lately that the virus hunts down the unvaccinated?
4 people positive on the Gold Coast today all jabbed.

Outbreaks in Sydney at jabbed only establishments, etc etc etc

Does it work or not?

Also, at what point do the jabbed say that's enough? You're fully jabbed, use QR code check in then if you're a close contact of a covid case you must still quarantine. You did this for your freedoms but they can get taken away at the drop of the hat. Freedoms don't come with conditions.

Why check in? you want to be locked inside for two weeks? even though your double or triple jabbed

Is entering a (jabbed only) establishment worth the risk to be locked inside for two weeks?

blindboy's picture
blindboy's picture
blindboy Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 2:27pm

"Does it work or not?"

For the 999th time, just for you burleigh, when a large majority of adults are vaccinated then the majority of cases will be amongst the vaccinated. But, the cases amongst the vaccinated are much less serious and the vaccinated are infectious for a much shorter time than the unvaccinated. So yep vaccination works in reducing infections and hospitalisations.

Maybe copy and paste this somewhere since you seem incapable of remembering it.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 2:29pm

FFS Burleigh, as BB said..

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 2:38pm

Victoria death rate has hovered around 1% of covid patients all year. which is roughly inline with the world covid figures. It's not changing since vaccination rates have increased to over 90% from 12 and up.
If the % death rate isn't changing when the vaccination rate is increasing does this mean the vaccine is working?

shortenism's picture
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shortenism Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 2:57pm

Spot on Burleigh. Its hard for some to admit they've been sold a lemon. But they will come around.

burleigh's picture
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burleigh Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 2:59pm
shortenism wrote:

Spot on Burleigh. Its hard for some to admit they've been sold a lemon. But they will come around.

Some people wish to remain fools only because the truth requires change.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 2:59pm
shortenism wrote:

Spot on Burleigh. Its hard for some to admit they've been sold a lemon. But they will come around.

How's Trump's second term looking?

I focus's picture
I focus's picture
I focus Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 3:08pm
burleigh wrote:

Victoria death rate has hovered around 1% of covid patients all year. which is roughly inline with the world covid figures. It's not changing since vaccination rates have increased to over 90% from 12 and up.
If the % death rate isn't changing when the vaccination rate is increasing does this mean the vaccine is working?

1% of what, vaccinated, un-vaccinate, what's the hospitalisation rate verses the positive test rate for vaccinated verses un-vaccinated?

Hint you wont find the answers in your echo chambers.

BTW going by Australia's vaccination rates most have moved on and ignored the US style BS pollicization of COVID and vaccinations.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 3:08pm
I focus wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Victoria death rate has hovered around 1% of covid patients all year. which is roughly inline with the world covid figures. It's not changing since vaccination rates have increased to over 90% from 12 and up.
If the % death rate isn't changing when the vaccination rate is increasing does this mean the vaccine is working?

1% of what, vaccinated, un-vaccinate, what's the hospitalisation rate verses the positive test rate for vaccinated verses un-vaccinated?

Hint you wont find the answers in your echo chambers.

You wont find the answers of Vax deaths at all as the Vic government doesn't release them. Which speaks volumes. What are they hiding?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 3:09pm

The boogey man? Fark enjoy your Friday and give it a rest. Have a good one!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 3:10pm

Waves look good at your namesake so get stuck in.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 3:16pm
Craig wrote:

Waves look good at your namesake so get stuck in.

Yep, wind is changing nicely. Looking forward to the next week of waves, hopefully keep me out of the rabbit hole!

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 3:44pm
burleigh wrote:
Craig wrote:

Waves look good at your namesake so get stuck in.

Yep, wind is changing nicely. Looking forward to the next week of waves, hopefully keep me out of the rabbit hole!

A bit more water early on the point will be the go.

I will keep a lookout for you burleigh..the one with the tin foil hat.

I will buy the coffee..:)....activated almond milk?

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 3:48pm
Roadkill wrote:
burleigh wrote:
Craig wrote:

Waves look good at your namesake so get stuck in.

Yep, wind is changing nicely. Looking forward to the next week of waves, hopefully keep me out of the rabbit hole!

A bit more water early on the point will be the go.

I will keep a lookout for you burleigh..the one with the tin foil hat.

I will buy the coffee..:)....activated almond milk?

Close. Oat milk. Don’t forget your mask though. I’m not vaccinated

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 3:57pm

"Victoria death rate has hovered around 1% of covid patients all year"
BULLLLLLLLLL Shiiiiiiiit burleigh.
death rates have been coming down steadily in Victoria and Australia with better treatment protocols and something I just can't put my finger on. Help me out folks. I'm sure it's something obvious. A free case of virtual beer to the person who comes up with the correct answer first.

burleigh's picture
burleigh's picture
burleigh Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 3:58pm
Vic Local wrote:

"Victoria death rate has hovered around 1% of covid patients all year"
BULLLLLLLLLL Shiiiiiiiit burleigh.
death rates have been coming down steadily in Victoria and Australia with better treatment protocols and something I just can't put my finger on. Help me out folks. I'm sure it's something obvious. A free case of virtual beer to the person who comes up with the correct answer first.

Really? Prove it

gsco's picture
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gsco Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 4:09pm
burleigh wrote:

Really? Prove it

well for all of Australia you can see it's true by comparing daily deaths to daily cases using the graphs provided by Shane Oliver (https://twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP):

for death rates to be unchanging, the red line needs to be more than twice as high as the black line, as per how it was before the vaccine rollout, but it's about half as high now.

Hiccups's picture
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Hiccups Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 4:07pm

This the last time I'll ask burleigh. What IS it that you think's gonna happen at the next election? You must have missed me asking the question multiple times. That's ok, we all lead busy lives, but seeing as you're rather involved here this arvo, it seems like a good time to catch you. Ta.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 4:07pm

Last years wave that caused 800 deaths topped out at 700 new cases a day and lasted about three months. It was a reverse v shaped new daily infection chart.
The latest wave has been over 1000 cases a day for nearly 3 months now. (looks like table mountain). I haven't done the exact maths but I'm estimating this wave has 10 x the number of cases and half the number of deaths.
Google "covid stats australia" and check it out for yourself. You'd have to have shit for brains not to be able to see the trend.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 4:09pm
Hiccups wrote:

This the last time I'll ask burleigh. What IS it that you think's gonna happen at the next election? You must have missed me asking the question multiple times. That's ok, we all lead busy lives, but seeing as you're rather involved here this arvo, it seems like a good time to catch you. Ta.

I reckon burleigh might actually believe Craig Kelly will be the next PM,

Hiccups's picture
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Hiccups Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 4:24pm
Vic Local wrote:
Hiccups wrote:

This the last time I'll ask burleigh. What IS it that you think's gonna happen at the next election? You must have missed me asking the question multiple times. That's ok, we all lead busy lives, but seeing as you're rather involved here this arvo, it seems like a good time to catch you. Ta.

I reckon burleigh might actually believe Craig Kelly will be the next PM,

That's probably spot on. I don't expect an answer. burleigh disappears every time he's been asked, not just by me either. It's like even he knows he's full of shit.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 4:28pm
Hiccups wrote:
Vic Local wrote:
Hiccups wrote:

This the last time I'll ask burleigh....

I reckon burleigh might actually believe Craig Kelly will be the next PM,

That's probably spot on. I don't expect an answer. burleigh disappears every time he's been asked, not just by me either. It's like even he knows he's full of shit.

They are a funny mob aren't they.
Burleigh would have to be the biggest bullshitter, shortenism is the stupidest, and blowin takes out the most fragile ego prize for sure.

Hiccups's picture
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Hiccups Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 4:30pm
Vic Local wrote:
Hiccups wrote:
Vic Local wrote:
Hiccups wrote:

This the last time I'll ask burleigh....

I reckon burleigh might actually believe Craig Kelly will be the next PM,

That's probably spot on. I don't expect an answer. burleigh disappears every time he's been asked, not just by me either. It's like even he knows he's full of shit.

They are a funny mob aren't they.
Burleigh would have to be the biggest bullshitter, shortenism is the stupidest, and blowin takes out the most fragile ego prize for sure.

Ego of the year on that cunt. This talk begs the question, where is Hutchy19? That was a whirlwind.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Friday, 10 Dec 2021 at 4:35pm

I reckon Hutch19 might have been a sock puppet for blowin or burleigh. Not sure shortenism has the mental capabilities to have an online conversation with himself.