COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

gromfull's picture
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gromfull Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 12:58pm
blindboy wrote:

The video radically misrepresents the effectiveness of non-specific antibodies. Natural immunity protects us against many potential infections but it has not "handled every virus since the dawn of man". It certainly did not handle HIV. It regularly fails against other corona viruses that cause the common cold and it regularly fails against influenza. Why are you posting bullshit?

can you tell me out of the 81k of people who have contracted covid in NSW,
how many have had zero symptoms,
mild symptoms
needed hospitilisation

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blindboy Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:00pm

Blowin generally bases his arguments on what he says you said.

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burleigh Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:04pm
Michael Adam's picture
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Michael Adam Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:08pm

Only those truly deranged or corrupted fail to see the lies. It’s pretty obvious now. There is no need to argue among ourselves. Your fellow citizens are not your enemies. We know now.

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blindboy Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:18pm

Welcome to Swellchan......home of the lunatic fringe!

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Blowin Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:21pm

Less than 3% of ICU beds across Australia have someone who has tested positive for covid within the last 28 days ( and who’s primary illness may not be related to covid).

Yet some weak cuntish Australians still advocate for medical apartheid based on punitive harm inflicted on those who they consider their blood unclean.

Medieval bullshit.

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Blowin Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:23pm
blindboy wrote:

Welcome to Swellchan......home of the lunatic fringe!

Lol. I wouldn’t say you’re a lunatic bloke…..just deluded and a bit slow.

And gullible. Really gullible.

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frog Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:23pm

Raw data is always good to look at to see the true impact of covid as a proxy for serious illness. Excess deaths is about as unfiltered as you will get. It won't tell you much about the poorest countries who do not collect data. But it is interesting.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

Some takeaway points:
- High vax countries such as Israel and Britain with covid surges are not having spikes in excess deaths - so surges in case numbers do not really tell you much on vaccine effectiveness despite the enthusiasm for some to quote case numbers in high vax Israel and Gibraltar.
- The heat map showing significant surges in excess deaths in recent months is not in the high vax countries.
- many countries have had one two or more high spikes in excess deaths but these are often self limiting with or without vaccines.
- If you lived in a high death rate country you might know well two people who have died of covid (assume say 400 friends and relatives spread across the age groups) not good but not as dramatic as the news stories imply.

Ultimately, it is a complicated story with many factors at work with vaccines being just one. So to look at the raw data and then come in swinging with very firm opinions either way is probably wrong.

At its simplest my own judgement is - Do you want partial exposure to the virus through a very low risk vaccination to get a bit prepared or get the whole thing in one hit?

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gromfull Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:25pm
Vic Local wrote:

Oh great, another cooked nutter has joined the debate.
New case numbers are through the roof but this recent wave is not nearly as deadly as the 2020 winter wave.
Now call me crazy gromfull, but I reckon the high vaccination rates have a lot to do with that fact. But go ahead champ. Let us know your reason for that trend.

VL straight to the name calling, coming from a clown who has an angry avatar with gun shouting, im a local, no credit there, chump is what i see, it wouldn't matter what info is put in front of you , you will just shout it down because that's all you have, you must be that shit scared of your decision that you have to run everyone down

Now the if your healthy with no underlying morbidities there is a very strong chance that covid will have little to no affect on you, the older you get the more risk , the unhealthier the lifestyle more risk, underlying health problems more risk. in NSW 81k have tested positive, please tell me how many people ended up having no or mild symptoms, only a very small percentage made it to hospital, even smaller percentage died

Now along comes a vaccine, if you tested positive to covid and in the first group, healthy no issues, you would claim that it was the vaccine that got you through it, when in actual fact you would have survived any way, yes the vaccine may help the vulnerable at this stage but we are still in the trial stages of this experiment,

My eyes are open to all information and points of views, unlike you who is blinkers on and screaming at anyone who dares to go against what YOU believe in ,

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blindboy Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:25pm

Using the term medical apartheid trivialises the history of violent oppression that word involves....but the rotating congregation of fucking idiots here are incapable of making any distinction more subtle than that between a smack in the face with a house brick and a kiss. Carry on Swellchan.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:31pm
frog wrote:

Raw data is always good to look at to see the true impact of covid as a proxy for serious illness. Excess deaths is about as unfiltered as you will get. It won't tell you much about the poorest countries who do not collect data. But it is interesting.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

Some takeaway points:
- High vax countries such as Israel and Britain with covid surges are not having spikes in excess deaths - so surges in case numbers do not really tell you much on vaccine effectiveness despite the enthusiasm for some to quote case numbers in high vax Israel and Gibraltar.
- The heat map showing significant surges in excess deaths in recent months is not in the high vax countries.
- many countries have had one two or more high spikes in excess deaths but these are often self limiting with or without vaccines.
- If you lived in a high death rate country you might know well two people who have died of covid (assume say 400 friends and relatives spread across the age groups) not good but not as dramatic as the news stories imply.

Ultimately, it is a complicated story with many factors at work with vaccines being just one. So to look at the raw data and then come in swinging with very firm opinions either way is probably wrong.

At its simplest my own judgement is - Do you want partial exposure to the virus through a very low risk vaccination to get a bit prepared or get the whole thing in one hit?

Yep. Excess deaths resulting from covid mitigation measures are an inestimable burden on society. Many will die unnecessarily due to political overreach and opportunism in catering to the lowest of moral weakness- craven covid cowards!
https://www.euronews.com/next/2021/12/01/cancer-in-europe-the-devastatin...

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blindboy Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:38pm

"Excess deaths resulting from covid mitigation measures are an inestimable burden on society."

More toxic bullshit from the resident master.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:57pm
blindboy wrote:

"Excess deaths resulting from covid mitigation measures are an inestimable burden on society."

More toxic bullshit from the resident master.

Tip of the iceberg. How many millions have died globally due to covid mitigation? By the time the consequence of years of shuttering of society are calculated the true impacts may be recognised as far exceeding the threat posed by a virus which has very little effect on the vast majority of people.

In the future it will be admitted that the political decision to arbitrarily diminish responsibility from those whose lifestyle choices put them in harm’s way - the obese, the smokers, the inactive and the voluntarily unhealthy- and to instead place the burden of society’s accumulated and incited vitriol and hate upon those who saw vaccine mandates as being a road to authoritarianism.

https://www.euronews.com/next/2021/12/01/cancer-in-europe-the-devastatin...

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Blowin Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 2:21pm

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Blowin Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 2:22pm

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burleigh Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 2:32pm

Obviously not an Australian Doctor, If they spoke the truth they face heavy fines and de-registration.
Noting to see here folks. Get you jabs and don't ask questions like VicMoron and Co.

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Vic Local Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 2:47pm

Wow burleigh, you call me a moron while making five spelling / grammar mistakes in a 30 word rant.
BTW, doctors should get de-registered if they are telling patients or promoting your anti-vax "truth". This ain't 'Nam. There are rules.
What sort of moron thinks doctors should be allowed to spout unscientific anti-vax bullshit with immunity? That person would need blowin levels of idiocy.

Stok's picture
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Stok Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 3:17pm
Blowin wrote:

https://twitter.com/james_doidge/status/1467417713916137472?s=20

Is this new?

To me that's always been the definition....not just related to the act of needle in arm, but against the ideology of it.

It's pretty simple stuff really....it's also stuff which has been around for decades (or longer?). The cry babies among us are just losing it as things have recently changed, and they don't like change, also this is one of the very few significant sacrifices they've had to make in their cushy privileged lives. The sacrifice of course is spending half an hour out of their day to go get a needle. Maybe a booster or two.

The frustration at having to make this sacrifice is so large that they'll hunt down alternatives, and ways to get out of doing this. The true, pre-covid anti-vaxxers have been licking their lips with glee watching the incredibly small percentage of the population search out 'truths' and join the 'great awakening', which has led these pricks right into the arms of the anti vaxxers, who have offered them reassurance that it's not 'them', it's 'everyone else' who is wrong.

And now we have this situation where dumb souls are choosing their own paths. I'm likening it to letting a small child choose what they have for breakfast/lunch/dinner - don't listen to your parents! Eat whatever you want! It's ok! Pizza and ice cream everyday!

And of course - to my point - we have the opportunists....the ugly, propagandists that are shovelling these fools up and throwing them into their political ideologies with ease. like this epidemiologist you posted here Blowin. I'd bet we'd never hear of this shameful human being at all if it wasn't for covid. he'd be a nobody. Nothing good to contribute, but somehow smart enough to use this period of chaos to get a few extra bucks.

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aaron61 Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 3:18pm

The best summary I have read on Covid and the vaccines.

Presented without comment to allow the hotheads on both sides a little reflection.

Quite a long read, but worthwhile for those here shrieking at each other.

The wise are full of doubt, but fools have none.

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/science/articles/needle-points-vaccin...

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I focus Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 3:49pm
Blowin wrote:

Yep. Excess deaths resulting from covid mitigation measures are an inestimable burden on society. Many will die unnecessarily due to political overreach and opportunism in catering to the lowest of moral weakness- craven covid cowards!"

Haven't looked for a while but Australia's record is lower death rates surprisingly suicide rates were down may have since changed.

One thing if you let COVID run in Australia without mitigation measures is the blowing up the health system which has no spare capacity which then stops / delays other life saying treatments hence the thread title and original intent.

That's not the case when you vaccinate the population widely as shown in NSW and to a degree Victoria, high vaccination rates dramatically change the out come the data is clear not to say that will continue as vaccines effectiveness falls off with time.

Most of the anti vax arguments are pointless as the majority of Australians got vaccinated and moved on.

As a nation Australia is fortunately pro vaccination but ironically gives some the sense of there is nothing wrong so why vaccinate its my right / freedom blah blah blah.

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I focus Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 4:03pm

Thats a good read Aaron thanks.

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Abmay Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 5:34pm

Stok: "I'm likening it to letting a small child choose what they have for breakfast/lunch/dinner - don't listen to your parents! "
Hey Stok, I'd suggest there are quite a number of parents out there who aren't making great decisions with regard to what they feed their children.

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bluediamond Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 6:09pm
burleigh wrote:

Interesting to see the MSM are releasing this:
https://dailytelegraph.co.nz/news/pfizer-document-concedes-that-there-is...

Go for your life VicMoron, Roadkill and blindboy, find a gramma error and write the article off.

I will never inject myself or my kids with this. and if you want to inject kids to keep you "safe" you are SICK in the head.

Insane Burlz. Thanks for sharing. It's all coming out.

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bluediamond Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 6:25pm

from the above article..
" The fact that a sequence of foreign code has been introduced into the physiology produces major risks to health, risks that those working in gene therapy for the last few decades are very familiar with.
The extremely broad range of adverse effects revealed by the Pfizer document is the physiological signature of a general control system failure, a failure of the body’s overall integration and function. It is not plausible to suggest otherwise. That is why experts in genomics, even as I write, are pondering fundamental questions about the action and safety of mRNA vaccines. They are also urging caution."

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bluediamond Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 6:30pm
Blowin wrote:

Trust the science …..and the media. Lol.

https://greenwald.substack.com/p/to-deny-the-lab-leak-covid-theory

Great article Blowin. Thanks for posting.
Absolutely insane!

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Vic Local Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 6:37pm

got my Swellnet Christmas shopping done in record time. I've got the following for shortenism, blowin, burleigh, and BD. Now gromfull, you're a bit new to be getting a gift, but I can always turn the order from 4 to 5 units. I reckon it's perfect for every single one of you.
https://www.spreadshirt.com.au/shop/design/tin+foil+hat+conspiracy+quote...

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blindboy Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 6:44pm

NZ Tellycrap piece is a promo for old mate's book! No relevant qualifications. No link to the Pfizer document and extremely sketchy description of some basic genetic processes. If the document exists, post the link.

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bluediamond Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 7:02pm

B.B
https://phmpt.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/5.3.6-postmarketing-experie...

And thanks VL. I'll pop it under my Christmas tree!!

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blindboy Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 7:14pm

The substack piece is predictable and adds nothing to the debate about the origin of the virus. As the Lancet letter stated, the assessment of the evidence by the overwhelming majority of researchers in the field at that time, was that the virus was very likely to be zoonotic. That continues to be true. The debate was never shut down and investigations continue. It is still probable that a definitive finding will be made but there is no guarantee.

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aaron61 Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 7:28pm

VL.

I did say "The wise are full of doubt, but fools have none".

Hint. Hint.

Where do you reckon you rank?

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/science/articles/needle-points-vaccin...

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blindboy Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 7:32pm

Thanks for the link BD I will work through it.

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Vic Local Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 7:42pm
aaron61 wrote:

VL.

I did say "The wise are full of doubt, but fools have none".

Hint. Hint.

Where do you reckon you rank?

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/science/articles/needle-points-vaccin...

Mate, I'm no expert but my opinions are very much consistent with experts publishing peer reviewed papers in credible medical journals.
When people with zero expertise are absolute sure their opinions are right (and the experts are part of some giant cover up) you can put them in the "fools with no doubt" bucket.

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indo-dreaming Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 9:12pm
Blowin wrote:

Trust the science …..and the media. Lol.

https://greenwald.substack.com/p/to-deny-the-lab-leak-covid-theory

Good article

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burleigh Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 9:27pm
Vic Local wrote:
aaron61 wrote:

VL.

I did say "The wise are full of doubt, but fools have none".

Hint. Hint.

Where do you reckon you rank?

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/science/articles/needle-points-vaccin...

Mate, I'm no expert but my opinions are very much consistent with experts publishing peer reviewed papers in credible medical journals.
When people with zero expertise are absolute sure their opinions are right (and the experts are part of some giant cover up) you can put them in the "fools with no doubt" bucket.

Your opinions are in line with a government agenda $$$ that's it dopey.
Jab, jab, jab and jab again, don't question it. Jab jab jab

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vladalotovodka Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 9:30pm

Vlad much nightmare is of spooky omicron. Thursday week ago not know omicron word. Friday hear omicron. Monday omicron is when on every news of planet and leader speak. One Greek word is bigly scary virus superspread event of history. Word spread 10,000 times faster is than virus is name of it.

Vlad close eyes in dark of night think not is of how choose beautiful blond russian bride from list. Think only omicron omicron omicron omicron spooky omicron.

West is master of is scare peoples. Stalin only was amateur is.

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Stok Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 9:55pm
burleigh wrote:
Vic Local wrote:
aaron61 wrote:

VL.

I did say "The wise are full of doubt, but fools have none".

Hint. Hint.

Where do you reckon you rank?

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/science/articles/needle-points-vaccin...

Mate, I'm no expert but my opinions are very much consistent with experts publishing peer reviewed papers in credible medical journals.
When people with zero expertise are absolute sure their opinions are right (and the experts are part of some giant cover up) you can put them in the "fools with no doubt" bucket.

Your opinions are in line with a government agenda $$$ that's it dopey.
Jab, jab, jab and jab again, don't question it. Jab jab jab

And your opinions are in-line with a rabble of unorganised anti government, religious and anti vax agendas?

At least the benefit of listening to governments is they get held accountable for their decisions. If they make the wrong call - they get voted out. If they make claims about science being wrong, or covid being part of the great reset - they get voted out. All governments in Australia now are getting a grilling about how they're handling covid - whether they've overstepped or understepped.

On the other hand, the people and groups who shape your opinions can keep spouting their truths without any form of control. Everyone forgets about what they get wrong (nearly everything), and they have no responsibility.

Which is why the poor fools are falling for the anti vax / anti mandate ideologies. These people are claiming that we don't need vaccines, lockdowns, or any form of health measures - don't worry! Ignore the experts! Just stop living in fear and we'll be fine! Natural immunity yew!

It's the easy way out, to ignore existential threats which require difficult actions to mitigate. Burleigh, you probably know it deep down, either consciously or sub-consciously - part of the reasoning behind your decision to form your position is because of its convenience.

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mikehunt207 Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 11:55pm

Some good points Stok, accountability for ones actions now and in future hindsight will be interesting to watch.
I have a ex mate who for the first year of the pandemic was so worried about covid to the point of driving around with a mask on in his car on his own , forbidding his family to have visitors or go anywhere (this is in WA) , masks , sprays, zombie rapists are coming etc etc , now he has gone full circle and thinks covid is a hoax, protesting against vax and mandates , crazy turnaround but zero accountability (or guilt) for what a total cunt he has been to everybody through the whole process, thinks smarter than everybody else and too much ego to admit he was wrong .... an apology to his wife and kids should be the least he could do , a lot of ex mates could do with one too but hey covid madness is a legit excuse for fuckwitary apparently. Sad .

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seaslug Tuesday, 7 Dec 2021 at 1:19am

Not the one driving around Marg's in a black sedan with "Covid Hoax" written in white on the doors Mike?

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zenagain Tuesday, 7 Dec 2021 at 1:31am

No signs of fuckwitery prior to the pandemic?

These things kinda reveal themselves early in the piece.

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Blowin Tuesday, 7 Dec 2021 at 4:28am

Stok - With Australia at 90% vaccination and patients who have tested positive to covid only taking up less than 3% of ICU beds in the countrcan you please explain what a vaccine passport and mandated vaccination is achieving from this point?

Australia is experiencing a case fatality rate ( people dying within 28 days of covid positive test , not necessarily dying from covid ) of about 0.3%. This is similar to influenza. Why are people now being ostracised from society and continuous government control of their movements and the lives being accepted? Why are people excluded from employment when they are not sick, the people around them are protected from getting sick themselves and the sickness is now no more dangerous than influenza?

In 2017 Australia had 1257 influenza deaths . This is more than has died with covid in 2021.

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aaron61 Tuesday, 7 Dec 2021 at 6:25am

"When people with zero expertise are absolute sure their opinions are right (and the experts are part of some giant cover up) you can put them in the "fools with no doubt" bucket".

VL you didn't read it, did you?

A balanced article by a famous medical expert who is vaccinated.

You are a cretin. Of that there is no doubt.

Probably too thought provoking for such a closed, tiny mind as yours.

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/science/articles/needle-points-vaccin...

shoredump's picture
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shoredump Tuesday, 7 Dec 2021 at 7:14am

“It’s evolution baby”

Sing it, Roy

https://g.co/kgs/8agbZX

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Tuesday, 7 Dec 2021 at 7:28am

aaron61. I had a brief look. Sorry, busy day yesterday. It raised some interesting points but lacked academic rigour and footnotes. Not a bad opinion piece, but not much more than that.

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gromfull Tuesday, 7 Dec 2021 at 8:24am
blindboy wrote:

The video radically misrepresents the effectiveness of non-specific antibodies. Natural immunity protects us against many potential infections but it has not "handled every virus since the dawn of man". It certainly did not handle HIV. It regularly fails against other corona viruses that cause the common cold and it regularly fails against influenza. Why are you posting bullshit?

Blinkers on again BB, the bullshit i see is your response to everything, but now i know youve been a teacher explains everything, so again explain to me how is it that the over 70 % of people who have contracted covid have zero or mild symptoms and only knew they had was by getting tested, yeah so natural immunity doesnt work

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gromfull Tuesday, 7 Dec 2021 at 8:25am
aaron61 wrote:

"When people with zero expertise are absolute sure their opinions are right (and the experts are part of some giant cover up) you can put them in the "fools with no doubt" bucket".

gold, i like they way you express yourself
VL you didn't read it, did you?

A balanced article by a famous medical expert who is vaccinated.

You are a cretin. Of that there is no doubt.

Probably too thought provoking for such a closed, tiny mind as yours.

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/science/articles/needle-points-vaccin...

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Tuesday, 7 Dec 2021 at 8:32am
gromfull wrote:
aaron61 wrote:

"When people with zero expertise are absolute sure their opinions are right (and the experts are part of some giant cover up) you can put them in the "fools with no doubt" bucket".

gold, i like they way you express yourself
VL you didn't read it, did you?

Oh FFS gromfull, what part of my previous comment didn't you understand.
"aaron61. I had a brief look. Sorry, busy day yesterday. It raised some interesting points but lacked academic rigour and footnotes. Not a bad opinion piece, but not much more than that."

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shortenism Tuesday, 7 Dec 2021 at 8:42am

Hey mikehunt, sounds like your ‘ex mate’ educated himself. Good on him. It’s never too late to have a good look in the mirror and accept you’ve fallen for it. With all these ex mates you speak of, probably not a bad time for you to have a look in the mirror full stop.

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indo-dreaming Tuesday, 7 Dec 2021 at 8:40am
shoredump wrote:

“It’s evolution baby”

Sing it, Roy

https://g.co/kgs/8agbZX

Still early days, but some positive signs.

Dont think anyone has died yet from it either?

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gsco Tuesday, 7 Dec 2021 at 9:03am

I find graphs like this encouraging too, indicating that the vaccines seem to be working (hospitalisation and death rates are not increasing in line with new case rates like they did before vaccination rollouts), from the economist Shane Oliver, who I think if anyone can be deemed to be a reputable source then he can: https://twitter.com/ShaneOliverAMP