COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 9:05am

Happy Monday all! And shit...wake up to find out the bloody vaccines don't work!! TBB was onto this long ago....
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2021/11/hard_data_shows_the_cov...

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 9:14am
blindboy wrote:

No sustainable argument and straight back to insult mode, but ramble on if it makes you feel better.

Huh?

Your notion has been exposed as ridiculous. There’s no two ways about it. You’ve literally cherry picked global data ( based on spurious statistics) and then entered them into your Fantasy Speculation Machine to come up with ….dogshit.

I hate to break it to you bloke but bullshit * bullshit = bullshit squared.

And bullshit squared is what you’ve served up as your opinion. Duly noted bloke. You elect to believe made up bullshit to support your irrational fear.

Why not enter Ethiopia into your Fantasy Speculation Machine?

Population of 115,000,000 people. Vaccination rate of 1.3%. Covid “ deaths” of 6200.

Strange how you believe that Amerikkka is now the global definition of covid outcomes. Why not Ethiopia? They are severely malnourished and the effects of covid should surely be worse but……?

Time for you to admit that the US covid numbers are false, lies, fake news, politicised billshit with zero credibility.

Want to know how cooked the US covid reaction is through politics?

Here’s an example: Back at the start of covid Joe Biden explicitly said that Trump’s border closures to Africa were racist and only existed because Trump hated black and brown people ( his words. Laughable, divisive and awful as they are).

Cut to today and African nations are closed to entry into Amerikkka by Joe Biden……weird hey?

The US is a fucking joke. Nothing that comes out of there is believable including their covid statistics. Anyone who believes them is a fucking fool.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 9:18am

This is the sort of irrational fear mongering you are still pushing. It was fantastic bullshit then and it’s fantastical bullshit Stop yelling fire in a crowded theatre bloke.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 9:19am

Still on the Niger comparison blowin. Now you've chucked in Madagascar.
Geez mate. It's like you think Niger, Madagascar and Australia are similar countries.
If you were looking for countries with a polar opposite demographic, lifestyle, health system, and public service to Australia, Niger and Madagascar would be a good place to start.
Seriously blowin, it drives you nuts how Australia has been governed during covid. Why don't you fuck off to countries you think have done a better job. Maybe Niger, USA, or Madagascar.

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GuySmiley Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 9:49am

So much here .... comparing African countries with say Au is perhaps as valid as comparing the US to Au. Not valid much. We know Covid is less deadly on the young and Sth Africa for eg has 1.6% of its population over 65 yrs so even given poor health care African countries could reasonably expected to do better than western countries with much older/sicker populations. Likewise in the US given their user pays health care, poor health status/outcomes/life expectancy and a natural stupidity in some quarters when it comes to being told by the govt what to do, well expect higher death rates. Overall given our aged population numbers, poor health status for many deaths here would have been exponentially higher if not for govt intervention. What people here are arguing about is the extent of that intervention

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gromfull Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 10:24am

interesting,


and no, my kids are not getting jabbed, they are 10 and 13, home schooling it is then

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blindboy Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 10:32am

Europe 1681 deaths per million
https://ncov2019.live/data/europe

Australia 2000 deaths in 25 million population = 80 deaths per million.

The point is not about exact comparisons, which are not possible given all the other factors. The point is that all comparisons with areas with reliable data and similar economics and demographics to Australia, point to the conclusion that the procedures, endlessly argued against here, were highly effective. The reprehensible behaviour of those pursuing such perverted logic, so potentially damaging to public health, is only matched by those willing to publish such crap.

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blindboy Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 10:41am

The video radically misrepresents the effectiveness of non-specific antibodies. Natural immunity protects us against many potential infections but it has not "handled every virus since the dawn of man". It certainly did not handle HIV. It regularly fails against other corona viruses that cause the common cold and it regularly fails against influenza. Why are you posting bullshit?

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 10:54am

News update for the idiot-anti everything Melbourne mob.
December 17 is still on folks. That's the date Dan gets tried for treason. Location is the Myrtleford Magistrates Court. It's a hell of a step up for that regional magistrate, going from drink driving and petty theft trials to the political crime of the century. Why Myrtleford? If any of you cooked crew can help answer that, I would greatly appreciate it.
The anti-everything mob love to pretend they are pro small business, but if someone asks one of these cooked fuckwits for a vaccine certificate, they've been responding by bombarding the establishment with negative reviews. Not exactly pro-small business then.
Anyway, have a happy day.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 11:43am

Blindboy has gone from saying it’s not factually correct that covid has little effect on the young and healthy to now saying that the reason African nations are virtually unaffected by covid is because their populations are younger and healthy.

Obviously the virtually unaffected younger and healthier nations of Africa do not need to be vaccinated then as they have experienced two years of COVID PANIC without consequence despite being entirely unvaccinated.

This is indisputable proof that young healthy Australians don’t need vaccinations…..it’s just simple maths!

Madagascar is a far better comparison with Australia than virtually anywhere. Same latitude = same levels of vitamin D in population.

Blindboy thinks that Australia should be compared with the US because we watch some of the same TV shows. Then again….he just said that the US had reliable data! Lolol….how freaking deluded can a person be?

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gromfull Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 11:46am
bluediamond wrote:

Happy Monday all! And shit...wake up to find out the bloody vaccines don't work!! TBB was onto this long ago....
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2021/11/hard_data_shows_the_cov...

interesting link, how long until the vaccine mafia find ways to discredit it without actuaally thinking that there might be something in this, we are starting to see it here in oz, sit back and wait for the show to begin

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 12:02pm

Oh great, another cooked nutter has joined the debate.
New case numbers are through the roof but this recent wave is not nearly as deadly as the 2020 winter wave.
Now call me crazy gromfull, but I reckon the high vaccination rates have a lot to do with that fact. But go ahead champ. Let us know your reason for that trend.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 12:15pm
Vic Local wrote:

Oh great, another cooked nutter has joined the debate.
New case numbers are through the roof but this recent wave is not nearly as deadly as the 2020 winter wave.
Now call me crazy gromfull, but I reckon the high vaccination rates have a lot to do with that fact. But go ahead champ. Let us know your reason for that trend.

Oh for sure it’s vaccinations….nothing to do with Dan Andrews seeding aged health care centres full of the nearly dead with his wuFlu. So what if that’s where a massive slice of Australia’s died within 28 days of a covid test fatalities happened ? Does that matter?

Yes. Yes it does.

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Blowin Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 12:16pm
burleigh's picture
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burleigh Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 12:17pm
Vic Local wrote:

Oh great, another cooked nutter has joined the debate.
New case numbers are through the roof but this recent wave is not nearly as deadly as the 2020 winter wave.
Now call me crazy gromfull, but I reckon the high vaccination rates have a lot to do with that fact. But go ahead champ. Let us know your reason for that trend.

you really are a fool VicMoron. new variants are less deadly, but go on, tell us how well the vaccine is doing. Or better yet, tell us how rich some people are getting.
One jab, two jabs, three jab, four. More giveaways than Oprah.

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Blowin Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 12:19pm

VIC Local says : “ Now is the perfect time to PANIC!”

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burleigh Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 12:46pm

Interesting to see the MSM are releasing this:
https://dailytelegraph.co.nz/news/pfizer-document-concedes-that-there-is...

Go for your life VicMoron, Roadkill and blindboy, find a gramma error and write the article off.

I will never inject myself or my kids with this. and if you want to inject kids to keep you "safe" you are SICK in the head.

Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 12:44pm

"you really are a fool VicMoron. new variants are less deadly,"
Really burleigh? The most common variant in Australia is Delta. Show us again exactly your evidence for your ludicrous claim that Delta is less deadly..

VIC Local says : “ Now is the perfect time to PANIC!”
No blowin. I didn't say that at all. You just made that up. I actually pointed out to much lower death rates despite much higher case rates because of the vaccine.

Your anti-vax agenda is so patently false, your sole remaining argument is invent things that simply never happened. Pretty pathetic blowin.

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gromfull Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 12:58pm
blindboy wrote:

The video radically misrepresents the effectiveness of non-specific antibodies. Natural immunity protects us against many potential infections but it has not "handled every virus since the dawn of man". It certainly did not handle HIV. It regularly fails against other corona viruses that cause the common cold and it regularly fails against influenza. Why are you posting bullshit?

can you tell me out of the 81k of people who have contracted covid in NSW,
how many have had zero symptoms,
mild symptoms
needed hospitilisation

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:00pm

Blowin generally bases his arguments on what he says you said.

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burleigh Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:04pm
Michael Adam's picture
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Michael Adam Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:08pm

Only those truly deranged or corrupted fail to see the lies. It’s pretty obvious now. There is no need to argue among ourselves. Your fellow citizens are not your enemies. We know now.

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blindboy Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:18pm

Welcome to Swellchan......home of the lunatic fringe!

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Blowin Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:21pm

Less than 3% of ICU beds across Australia have someone who has tested positive for covid within the last 28 days ( and who’s primary illness may not be related to covid).

Yet some weak cuntish Australians still advocate for medical apartheid based on punitive harm inflicted on those who they consider their blood unclean.

Medieval bullshit.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:23pm
blindboy wrote:

Welcome to Swellchan......home of the lunatic fringe!

Lol. I wouldn’t say you’re a lunatic bloke…..just deluded and a bit slow.

And gullible. Really gullible.

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frog Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:23pm

Raw data is always good to look at to see the true impact of covid as a proxy for serious illness. Excess deaths is about as unfiltered as you will get. It won't tell you much about the poorest countries who do not collect data. But it is interesting.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

Some takeaway points:
- High vax countries such as Israel and Britain with covid surges are not having spikes in excess deaths - so surges in case numbers do not really tell you much on vaccine effectiveness despite the enthusiasm for some to quote case numbers in high vax Israel and Gibraltar.
- The heat map showing significant surges in excess deaths in recent months is not in the high vax countries.
- many countries have had one two or more high spikes in excess deaths but these are often self limiting with or without vaccines.
- If you lived in a high death rate country you might know well two people who have died of covid (assume say 400 friends and relatives spread across the age groups) not good but not as dramatic as the news stories imply.

Ultimately, it is a complicated story with many factors at work with vaccines being just one. So to look at the raw data and then come in swinging with very firm opinions either way is probably wrong.

At its simplest my own judgement is - Do you want partial exposure to the virus through a very low risk vaccination to get a bit prepared or get the whole thing in one hit?

gromfull's picture
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gromfull Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:25pm
Vic Local wrote:

Oh great, another cooked nutter has joined the debate.
New case numbers are through the roof but this recent wave is not nearly as deadly as the 2020 winter wave.
Now call me crazy gromfull, but I reckon the high vaccination rates have a lot to do with that fact. But go ahead champ. Let us know your reason for that trend.

VL straight to the name calling, coming from a clown who has an angry avatar with gun shouting, im a local, no credit there, chump is what i see, it wouldn't matter what info is put in front of you , you will just shout it down because that's all you have, you must be that shit scared of your decision that you have to run everyone down

Now the if your healthy with no underlying morbidities there is a very strong chance that covid will have little to no affect on you, the older you get the more risk , the unhealthier the lifestyle more risk, underlying health problems more risk. in NSW 81k have tested positive, please tell me how many people ended up having no or mild symptoms, only a very small percentage made it to hospital, even smaller percentage died

Now along comes a vaccine, if you tested positive to covid and in the first group, healthy no issues, you would claim that it was the vaccine that got you through it, when in actual fact you would have survived any way, yes the vaccine may help the vulnerable at this stage but we are still in the trial stages of this experiment,

My eyes are open to all information and points of views, unlike you who is blinkers on and screaming at anyone who dares to go against what YOU believe in ,

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:25pm

Using the term medical apartheid trivialises the history of violent oppression that word involves....but the rotating congregation of fucking idiots here are incapable of making any distinction more subtle than that between a smack in the face with a house brick and a kiss. Carry on Swellchan.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:31pm
frog wrote:

Raw data is always good to look at to see the true impact of covid as a proxy for serious illness. Excess deaths is about as unfiltered as you will get. It won't tell you much about the poorest countries who do not collect data. But it is interesting.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

Some takeaway points:
- High vax countries such as Israel and Britain with covid surges are not having spikes in excess deaths - so surges in case numbers do not really tell you much on vaccine effectiveness despite the enthusiasm for some to quote case numbers in high vax Israel and Gibraltar.
- The heat map showing significant surges in excess deaths in recent months is not in the high vax countries.
- many countries have had one two or more high spikes in excess deaths but these are often self limiting with or without vaccines.
- If you lived in a high death rate country you might know well two people who have died of covid (assume say 400 friends and relatives spread across the age groups) not good but not as dramatic as the news stories imply.

Ultimately, it is a complicated story with many factors at work with vaccines being just one. So to look at the raw data and then come in swinging with very firm opinions either way is probably wrong.

At its simplest my own judgement is - Do you want partial exposure to the virus through a very low risk vaccination to get a bit prepared or get the whole thing in one hit?

Yep. Excess deaths resulting from covid mitigation measures are an inestimable burden on society. Many will die unnecessarily due to political overreach and opportunism in catering to the lowest of moral weakness- craven covid cowards!
https://www.euronews.com/next/2021/12/01/cancer-in-europe-the-devastatin...

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:38pm

"Excess deaths resulting from covid mitigation measures are an inestimable burden on society."

More toxic bullshit from the resident master.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 1:57pm
blindboy wrote:

"Excess deaths resulting from covid mitigation measures are an inestimable burden on society."

More toxic bullshit from the resident master.

Tip of the iceberg. How many millions have died globally due to covid mitigation? By the time the consequence of years of shuttering of society are calculated the true impacts may be recognised as far exceeding the threat posed by a virus which has very little effect on the vast majority of people.

In the future it will be admitted that the political decision to arbitrarily diminish responsibility from those whose lifestyle choices put them in harm’s way - the obese, the smokers, the inactive and the voluntarily unhealthy- and to instead place the burden of society’s accumulated and incited vitriol and hate upon those who saw vaccine mandates as being a road to authoritarianism.

https://www.euronews.com/next/2021/12/01/cancer-in-europe-the-devastatin...

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Blowin Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 2:21pm

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Blowin Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 2:22pm

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burleigh Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 2:32pm

Obviously not an Australian Doctor, If they spoke the truth they face heavy fines and de-registration.
Noting to see here folks. Get you jabs and don't ask questions like VicMoron and Co.

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Vic Local Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 2:47pm

Wow burleigh, you call me a moron while making five spelling / grammar mistakes in a 30 word rant.
BTW, doctors should get de-registered if they are telling patients or promoting your anti-vax "truth". This ain't 'Nam. There are rules.
What sort of moron thinks doctors should be allowed to spout unscientific anti-vax bullshit with immunity? That person would need blowin levels of idiocy.

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Stok Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 3:17pm
Blowin wrote:

https://twitter.com/james_doidge/status/1467417713916137472?s=20

Is this new?

To me that's always been the definition....not just related to the act of needle in arm, but against the ideology of it.

It's pretty simple stuff really....it's also stuff which has been around for decades (or longer?). The cry babies among us are just losing it as things have recently changed, and they don't like change, also this is one of the very few significant sacrifices they've had to make in their cushy privileged lives. The sacrifice of course is spending half an hour out of their day to go get a needle. Maybe a booster or two.

The frustration at having to make this sacrifice is so large that they'll hunt down alternatives, and ways to get out of doing this. The true, pre-covid anti-vaxxers have been licking their lips with glee watching the incredibly small percentage of the population search out 'truths' and join the 'great awakening', which has led these pricks right into the arms of the anti vaxxers, who have offered them reassurance that it's not 'them', it's 'everyone else' who is wrong.

And now we have this situation where dumb souls are choosing their own paths. I'm likening it to letting a small child choose what they have for breakfast/lunch/dinner - don't listen to your parents! Eat whatever you want! It's ok! Pizza and ice cream everyday!

And of course - to my point - we have the opportunists....the ugly, propagandists that are shovelling these fools up and throwing them into their political ideologies with ease. like this epidemiologist you posted here Blowin. I'd bet we'd never hear of this shameful human being at all if it wasn't for covid. he'd be a nobody. Nothing good to contribute, but somehow smart enough to use this period of chaos to get a few extra bucks.

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aaron61 Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 3:18pm

The best summary I have read on Covid and the vaccines.

Presented without comment to allow the hotheads on both sides a little reflection.

Quite a long read, but worthwhile for those here shrieking at each other.

The wise are full of doubt, but fools have none.

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/science/articles/needle-points-vaccin...

I focus's picture
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I focus Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 3:49pm
Blowin wrote:

Yep. Excess deaths resulting from covid mitigation measures are an inestimable burden on society. Many will die unnecessarily due to political overreach and opportunism in catering to the lowest of moral weakness- craven covid cowards!"

Haven't looked for a while but Australia's record is lower death rates surprisingly suicide rates were down may have since changed.

One thing if you let COVID run in Australia without mitigation measures is the blowing up the health system which has no spare capacity which then stops / delays other life saying treatments hence the thread title and original intent.

That's not the case when you vaccinate the population widely as shown in NSW and to a degree Victoria, high vaccination rates dramatically change the out come the data is clear not to say that will continue as vaccines effectiveness falls off with time.

Most of the anti vax arguments are pointless as the majority of Australians got vaccinated and moved on.

As a nation Australia is fortunately pro vaccination but ironically gives some the sense of there is nothing wrong so why vaccinate its my right / freedom blah blah blah.

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I focus Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 4:03pm

Thats a good read Aaron thanks.

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Abmay Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 5:34pm

Stok: "I'm likening it to letting a small child choose what they have for breakfast/lunch/dinner - don't listen to your parents! "
Hey Stok, I'd suggest there are quite a number of parents out there who aren't making great decisions with regard to what they feed their children.

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bluediamond Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 6:09pm
burleigh wrote:

Interesting to see the MSM are releasing this:
https://dailytelegraph.co.nz/news/pfizer-document-concedes-that-there-is...

Go for your life VicMoron, Roadkill and blindboy, find a gramma error and write the article off.

I will never inject myself or my kids with this. and if you want to inject kids to keep you "safe" you are SICK in the head.

Insane Burlz. Thanks for sharing. It's all coming out.

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bluediamond Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 6:25pm

from the above article..
" The fact that a sequence of foreign code has been introduced into the physiology produces major risks to health, risks that those working in gene therapy for the last few decades are very familiar with.
The extremely broad range of adverse effects revealed by the Pfizer document is the physiological signature of a general control system failure, a failure of the body’s overall integration and function. It is not plausible to suggest otherwise. That is why experts in genomics, even as I write, are pondering fundamental questions about the action and safety of mRNA vaccines. They are also urging caution."

bluediamond's picture
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bluediamond Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 6:30pm
Blowin wrote:

Trust the science …..and the media. Lol.

https://greenwald.substack.com/p/to-deny-the-lab-leak-covid-theory

Great article Blowin. Thanks for posting.
Absolutely insane!

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Vic Local Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 6:37pm

got my Swellnet Christmas shopping done in record time. I've got the following for shortenism, blowin, burleigh, and BD. Now gromfull, you're a bit new to be getting a gift, but I can always turn the order from 4 to 5 units. I reckon it's perfect for every single one of you.
https://www.spreadshirt.com.au/shop/design/tin+foil+hat+conspiracy+quote...

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blindboy Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 6:44pm

NZ Tellycrap piece is a promo for old mate's book! No relevant qualifications. No link to the Pfizer document and extremely sketchy description of some basic genetic processes. If the document exists, post the link.

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bluediamond Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 7:02pm

B.B
https://phmpt.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/5.3.6-postmarketing-experie...

And thanks VL. I'll pop it under my Christmas tree!!

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blindboy Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 7:14pm

The substack piece is predictable and adds nothing to the debate about the origin of the virus. As the Lancet letter stated, the assessment of the evidence by the overwhelming majority of researchers in the field at that time, was that the virus was very likely to be zoonotic. That continues to be true. The debate was never shut down and investigations continue. It is still probable that a definitive finding will be made but there is no guarantee.

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aaron61 Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 7:28pm

VL.

I did say "The wise are full of doubt, but fools have none".

Hint. Hint.

Where do you reckon you rank?

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/science/articles/needle-points-vaccin...

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blindboy Monday, 6 Dec 2021 at 7:32pm

Thanks for the link BD I will work through it.