COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 2:44pm

The truth is finally coming out . As so often the case it is not the mistake but the cover up that causes the most trouble . Fauci did lie !

NIH Admits Funding Gain-Of-Function COVID Experiments; Gives EcoHealth Five Days To Report Data

BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, OCT 21, 2021 - 09:26 AM
A top NIH official admitted in a Wednesday letter that the US-funded so-called "gain-of-function" research in Wuhan, China - and that the US nonprofit which conducted it, EcoHealth Alliance - led by the controversial Peter Daszak, "failed to report" that they had created a chimeric bat coronavirus which could infect humans.

In a letter addressed to Rep. James Comer (R-KY), NIH Principal Deputy Director Lawrence A. Tabak cites a "limited experiment" to determine whether "spike proteins from naturally occurring bat coronaviruses circulating in China were capable of binding to the human ACE2 receptor in a mouse model." According to the letter, humanized mice infected with the modified bat virus "became sicker" than those exposed to an unmodified version of the same bat coronavirus.

Dr. Fauci is still the top-paid federal employee earning $434,312 in 2020. Fauci is the Director of the National Institutes of Health’s (NIH) National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and current Chief Medical Advisor to the President.

The BIG question is WHEN will Biden sack him ?

Later rather than sooner is my guess .

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freeride76 Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 2:38pm

Copy that(Shorto)

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Mcface Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 2:40pm
shortenism wrote:

Freeride, I'm not sure invested is the right word. Open mind, is how i'm approaching it. I'm ready for anything to play out with all this. Time will tell.

Respectfully shorto you do not seem that open minded to me. From what I've read it seems you have shut the door on the clear and demonstrated benefits of the vaccines and have difficulty weighing it up against the risk of covid.

It is a good point fr has raised here. Millions of Australians have rolled up their sleeves for the jab and are getting on with things. If you haven't been convinced by the overwhelming success of the vax rollout to date it's difficult to see what will convince you to roll up your own sleeve now or some time in the future.

If you genuinely to believe the vaccines are not safe (which I believe you are genuine) then you must really despair for the 18 million Australians who have had the jab to date and who at least from where I stand, seem to be fine and getting on with our lives.

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shortenism Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 2:57pm

McFace, thanks for your feedback. But respectfully, if I wasn't open minded then I probably would have lined up by now. I dont know know you can link not lining up with a majority as being closed minded? And that right there is my point. In terms of sickness, we are no better off now than what we were before hand? Other than a bigger reliance on big pharma under a forever commitment to continual booster obligations (to maintain freedoms), we've achieved nothing. A big backwards step for humanity.

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Hutchy 19 Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 2:58pm

Mcface "If you genuinely to believe the vaccines are not safe (which I believe you are genuine) then you must really despair for the 18 million Australians who have had the jab to date and who at least from where I stand, seem to be fine and getting on with our lives."

I feel the same as shorto . I have had the vax .

Not despair but worry .

I worry about the small business failures , the anxiety of people and kids due to lock down . The missed experience's . If we have to do it all again for a new strain of covid . The divide it has caused . The freedoms we may lose . The benefits versus the costs .The lies we have been told . The possible long term side effects .

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Roadkill Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 3:18pm
udo wrote:

https://www.news.com.au/sport/sports-life/kelly-slater-slammed-over-vacc...

No surprise there. Slater has been going a bit down the rabbit hole...I blame veganism :)

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Mcface Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 3:20pm
Hutchy 19 wrote:

Not despair but worry .

I worry about the small business failures , the anxiety of people and kids due to lock down . The missed experience's . If we have to do it all again for a new strain of covid . The divide it has caused . The freedoms we may lose . The benefits versus the costs .The lies we have been told . The possible long term side effects .

Hutch I can understand this feeling and I too hope this will be the end of broad scale lockdowns. I personally think that the government on both sides have done well to navigate this pandemic in a way that minimises the loss of life and strain on our health system while also keeping some normality where possible. Sometimes the approach has been too conservative and other times too cavalier. However, I can appreciate that others may feel like the approach has been too conservative, particularly if you've been affected more than most, even though I wouldn't necessarily agree with it all.

My question to shorto was more directed at (what I interpret as) his hardline anti vax approach and the reluctance a minority of Australians have with getting the jab.

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Roker Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 3:24pm
udo wrote:

https://www.news.com.au/sport/sports-life/kelly-slater-slammed-over-vacc...

“When you study and talk to health professionals that deal with actual health and find out about the immune system suppression from the vaccines one day, you’ll open your mind to it,” he wrote.

When you're above it all I guess you can study it and 'do your own research' and act accordingly. But for most of us regular folk who have to live in regular society, it's a bit more complicated and consequential to 'open your mind to it', and act accordingly.

I'm guessing the WSL, unlike other 'leagues' such as the NBL and the AFL, won't be going with a vaccine mandate. Nor am I anticipating any talk in the commentary booth such as, 'how cool are these vaccines, so many of them, and a big shout out and thank you to all the pharmaceutical companies for the cool vaccines which are literally allowing the world's best to travel the world to all these cool regions to surf the world's best waves. So cool, and so grateful."

Vaccines will get even less mentions than Pottz.

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Hutchy 19 Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 3:24pm

Slater - at 49 and still in the top 50 surfers on the tour . His longevity proves how he looks after himself and how he knows his own body .

"“And for people saying listen to the doctors, I’m positive I know more about being healthy than 99% of doctors, but I wouldn’t trust me. But most of my covid info comes directly from doctor friends, many of them in disagreement with the official ‘science’."

I find it hard to disagree with the GOAT .

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freeride76 Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 3:25pm

Wonder if Slater's anti-vax stance will put his position on Tour in jeopardy?

Has to be vaxxed to compete in Australia, right?

Other places too?

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Roker Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 3:33pm

Maybe not Woodward and Bernstein but claims to have the scoop.

“In addition to my conjecture and anecdotes, some on the inside of the WSL have said that many are sceptical of receiving ‘a largely untested’ vaccine. Furthermore, one individual said they couldn’t think of a single surfer on the world tour they knew had been vaccinated or was planning to be.”

https://www.monsterchildren.com/are-pro-surfers-getting-vaccinated/

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Mcface Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 3:34pm
shortenism wrote:

McFace, thanks for your feedback. But respectfully, if I wasn't open minded then I probably would have lined up by now. I dont know know you can link not lining up with a majority as being closed minded? And that right there is my point. In terms of sickness, we are no better off now than what we were before hand? Other than a bigger reliance on big pharma under a forever commitment to continual booster obligations (to maintain freedoms), we've achieved nothing. A big backwards step for humanity.

I think you're overstating it. Just consider the alternatives which we have seen play out in other countries. Mobile morgues, complete overwhelming of the health systems and hundreds of thousands of deaths in countries (which also haven't been able escape oppressive lockdowns - rightly or wrongly). If everyone was as reluctant to get the jab as you, we could see something similar here.

It's possible vaccine efficacy may wane to a moderate extent, or a new vaccine resistant strain of virus emerges, but still doesn't discount that the vaccine is worth getting and will offer some protection at least from severe symptoms. After seeing millions of other Australians roll up their sleeves I'd suggest it's not much skin off your back to get out there shorto and get a jab yourself unless you think there is a high risk to your health.

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burzum Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 3:35pm

Slater, if you are going to opt out of medical advice, critical for international health, you can fuck off out of the health system altogether. Same for all of the other anti-vaxxers. Don't go crying to a hospital next time you need medical attention. After all you know better than doctors right?

Fuck he is such a wanker these days.

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blindboy Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 3:42pm

"“And for people saying listen to the doctors, I’m positive I know more about being healthy than 99% of doctors, but I wouldn’t trust me. But most of my covid info comes directly from doctor friends, many of them in disagreement with the official ‘science’."

This is getting into narcissistic territory. Observing from a distance he seems to have been heading down the rabbit hole for a while now. Probably spends way too much time amongst sycophants and hangers on which is always dangerous.

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shortenism Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 3:50pm

Mobile morgue's McFace...? Really... Are you talking about that week long mainstream media blitz on India, which disappeared never be mentioned again after India launched a raft of alternative treatments. Ya tripping McFace. Too much tv. Switch it off son.

If there are complications down the track with this jab you will need ppl like me to be able to function to help you and the millions of others who jumped out of the trench when the whistle blew. I suggest you start looking at ppl like me and hope there's enough of us. If it all does go to shit with all these jabs over the longer term (and lets hope it doesn't) then you'll need ppl who can help, who can pay taxes to fund the medical system that you will depend on.. We'll be here..

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burzum Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 3:45pm
Hutchy 19 wrote:

"“And for people saying listen to the doctors, I’m positive I know more about being healthy than 99% of doctors, but I wouldn’t trust me. But most of my covid info comes directly from doctor friends, many of them in disagreement with the official ‘science’."
.

So much heresy in that comment! "All of my Astronaut and astronomer friends, and I have many, many of them tell me how much cheese there is on the moon." is about as meaningful.

And what's this about the vax suppressing your immune system? That is a blatant misunderstanding of the how they work.

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freeride76 Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 3:50pm

“And plenty of people drive without seatbelts. We can agree that’s statistically not a great thing at speed but it’s still your choice, not mine. And my seatbelt (like the gene therapy) doesn’t save you so that’s another fallacy. Now regarding covid…21 total deaths in OZ under the age of 30 and 6 below 20. This is clearly a disease of obese, unhealthy, and elderly if you study the official statistics.

“And for people saying listen to the doctors, I’m positive I know more about being healthy than 99% of doctors, but I wouldn’t trust me. But most of my covid info comes directly from doctor friends, many of them in disagreement with the official ‘science’.

“I had another of many friends have horrible reaction to the vaccine just today. She thought she was dying and fears her quality of life has changed in the past few days for good. My mom also is part of those underreported stats. Other friends have literally died from it. So anyone here shaming people who are affected or concerned does nothing but feed the ego.”

Kelly Slater. 11 time World Champion.

When someone says "literally died" my BS detector immediately starts redlining.

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blindboy Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 3:52pm

burzum, it's about par for the course for our correspondent in fantasy land. But this made me laugh

"Open mind, is how i'm approaching it"

Self-knowledge? Nil. State of mind? Deadlocked with added chains, padlocks and a half-starved guard dog on the prowl.

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shortenism Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 3:54pm

Yeah Slater is tripping hey McFace and Blindman? So's Djokovic. They probably spend not enough time watching the news.

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Mcface Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 3:57pm
shortenism wrote:

Mobile morgue's McFace...? Really... Are you talking about that week long mainstream media blitz on India, which disappeared never be mentioned again after India launched a raft of alternative treatments. Ya tripping McFace. Too much tv. Switch it off son.

If there are complications down the track with this jab you will need ppl like me to be able to function to help you and the millions of others who jumped out of the trench when the whistle blew. I suggest you start looking at ppl like me and hope there's enough of us. If it all does go to shit with all these jabs over the longer term (and lets hope it doesn't) then you'll need ppl who can help, who can pay taxes to find the medical system that you will depend on.. We'll be here..

I suppose we'll have to wait and see won't we!

Wonder how many years it took for the polio/yellow fever/tetanus/diphtheria vaccines to show their long term side effects. When do we all turn into zombies or start having children with two heads?!

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Vic Local Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 3:58pm

Geez, Slater has lost the plot too.
Getting medical advice from Slater makes as much sense as getting help on your cutback from a surgeon.
The problem is, there's plenty of stupid surfers who will take Slater's advice seriously. What a knob.

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freeride76 Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 4:00pm

Looks like Victoria is the only state to mandate vaccines for athletes.

Maybe Slater will sit out Bells?

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Roker Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 4:00pm

I want someone to explain to me how "literally died" is different to just plain old "died". And just how, in fact, "literally" is able to modify any verb?

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udo Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 4:04pm

To much Ayahuasca Kelly.

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freeride76 Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 4:05pm

I think what he means by "literally" is that he read it on the internet.

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garyg1412 Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 4:12pm
shortenism wrote:

I suggest you start looking at ppl like me and hope there's enough of us. If it all does go to shit with all these jabs over the longer term (and lets hope it doesn't) then you'll need ppl who can help, who can pay taxes to fund the medical system that you will depend on.. We'll be here..

How much is enough of us?? Even if it ends up being 10% the "us" in your plan will be about as fucked as the 90% of us poor souls that jumped at the whistle. You better hope that 90% of that 10% are farmers otherwise we're all starving to death anyway. After clearing that hurdle all you 10% heroes can then work how to fund the health system.

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Blowin Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 4:26pm

Blindboy….come on mate. You’re what’s known in the carnival industry as a rube. A mark. The type of gullible, naive stooge who swallows every word you are fed in the Washington Post as gospel.

Slater has millions of dollars, beach side homes in front of his favourite breaks and thousands of talented friends from all walks of life clear across the globe whilst you are the fella who moved inland for a few years and didn’t go overseas for decades just so you could move to a fucken duplex in Ulladulla , when if you’d have half a brain you could have just moved there decades ago when it was cheap as chips and saved wasting your life under mountains of debt to achieve the same result whilst you were young enough to enjoy it properly.

But….no one ever accused you of being smart.

All those years of “Trump the dictator will blow up the world” and “ Hundreds of thousands of extra adults each year dont push down wages or push up house prices or affect the environment”.

Seriously mate, just fucking stop with your relentless and brainless policing of the internet. Ya fucken stooge.

Shortenism….keep going mate. I don’t agree with everything you write, not at all, but I know you are closer to the truth of Covid than those muppets. Millions and millions of Australians feel the same way you do. They know this shit doesn’t add up. They know that a million Australians are fucked up with curable diabetes and the government doesn’t care two licks but they pretend that the thousand odd old or sick people who have died WITH Covid means we should shut down the country. The diabetics, the heart disease suffers and dozens of other lifestyle disease sufferers are the ones who clog up the health system acutely, chronically and every friggin day of the year. How many daily political updates you seen about that…none. Over 50,000 hospitalisations from diabetes alone each year and it’s preventable and the government does NOTHING. Yet the retards cry “ But it’s not contagious!!!!!!” like that alters the fact that diabetes alone dwarfs any threat from the overhyped virus.

Vaccination rates were at about 30% before everyone was coerced, pressured or mandated into getting it. The vast majority of Australians aren’t like these brain dead morons who think the newspaper headlines are inalienable truth. We all know people who’ve been fucked over by the vaccine and we see the media lying about it and it shows a bit more of their hand.

Ignore the Blindboys and Roadkills of the world. Noisy pests is all they are.

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Roadkill Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 4:15pm
Hutchy 19 wrote:

Slater - at 49 and still in the top 50 surfers on the tour . His longevity proves how he looks after himself and how he knows his own body .

"“And for people saying listen to the doctors, I’m positive I know more about being healthy than 99% of doctors, but I wouldn’t trust me. But most of my covid info comes directly from doctor friends, many of them in disagreement with the official ‘science’."

I find it hard to disagree with the GOAT .

GOLD.

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Vic Local Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 4:32pm

How's this for a comment on a Geelong Facebook group.
"I personally know of 4 people in icu with covid one is in a coma and there (sic) are all double vaxxed! And get this they caught it from a nurse whom was also double vaxxed."
The anti-vax crazies on Swellnet really need to lift their bullshit game to compete with this.

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blindboy Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 4:33pm

Aaaah Blowin is back! Weren't we all looking forward to that! And with a week's worth of bile ready to unload. Keep it coming the place isn't the same without you. Calmer, more rational, less abusive and so on.....but not the good old forums we have all learned to love.

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Vic Local Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 4:41pm
blindboy wrote:

Aaaah Blowin is back! Weren't we all looking forward to that! And with a week's worth of bile ready to unload. Keep it coming the place isn't the same without you. Calmer, more rational, less abusive and so on.....but not the good old forums we have all learned to love.

He does seem to tick off a lot of topics in that rant, going from Slater's real estate portfolio to diabetes.
When you look at blowin's style, it's a carbon copy of Trump's. Just angry non-sensical rants touching on multiple topics (none of them linked) while pointing the finger at enemies, both real and made up.

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evosurfer Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 4:42pm

All I know after the 2nd jab ive lost at least 50% no more of energy
always feeling a little off but not really sick just not my usual sparky
self and tired all the time and I tire really quickly doing anything physical
it sucks and ive been missing a lot of good surfs because I just not up to it.
Anybody that knows me knows thats not me.
As for a BOOSTER not a chance in the fucking world.

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Hutchy 19 Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 4:47pm

You are lying again BB "isn't the same without you. Calmer, more rational, less abusive and so on.....but not the good old forums we have all learned to love."

The guys have been just the same and have ensured that you have missed nothing of importance Blowin .

Craig has done some excellent work on the La Nina thread in the last few days .

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Blowin Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 4:54pm

Of course it’s as abusive as ever. In the couple of posts I read BB said Slater was a narcissist and Shortenism was basically stupid.

You’ve got to remember that Blindboy is pretty much a dead ringer for Dr Smith from Lost in Space. A self impressed halfwit who has convinced themselves that they’re a brave and intelligent man of science and insight, instead of the mindless twerp who goes to water at the first hint of backlash, which he actually is.

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shortenism Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 4:54pm

Blowin, good to see you back here and thanks for the words. I know they are and I should really get on with more productive stuff but its fun stirring em up.

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Vic Local Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 4:59pm

"BB said Slater was a narcissist and Shortenism was basically stupid."
It's not like blindboy was wrong there.
I like how blindboy doesn't tolerate fools. I'm putting all the anti-vaxxers in the moron column.
These people deserve nothing more than complete contempt. They are stupid, selfish, arrogant arseholes who think they are better informed than medical professionals.

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Roadkill Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 5:04pm

shorty and Hutchy vying for blowins attention and acceptance is a thing of delight. Blowin loves the ego stroking they offer.

Blowin my hero.

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blindboy Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 5:20pm

Blowie's return is kinda like one of those old 70s rugby league players they would break out when things got desperate. Not many teeth, early symptoms of dementia (alcoholism, repeated brain trauma. Either both?) but knowing every dirty trick in the book. Masters of the squirrel grip, the eye gouge and not afraid to have a nibble at any exposed body part. Good onya digger, your team needs you. 30 points down and your big hitters stretchered off.

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Vic Local Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 5:20pm
Roadkill wrote:

shorty and Hutchy vying for blowins attention and acceptance is a thing of delight. Blowin loves the ego stroking they offer.

Blowin my hero.

Spot on Roadkill, this is how conspiracy movements / cults grow. Stupid people giving each other affirmation, and making them feel part of something bigger.

Have you been watching the #Australiahasfallen crap coming out of the USA? Another example of how this shit spreads. A handful of influential fucksticks making $$$ out of their idiot followers.

It's even got to the point where some lunatics are saying the USA should invade Australia to protect us. FFS we have to stop tolerating fools.

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blindboy Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 5:23pm

Vic Local, my father's motto was to gladly make fools suffer. I do my best to live up to his exceptional abilities in that area.

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Blowin Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 5:24pm

“Spot on Roadkill, this is how conspiracy movements / cults grow. Stupid people giving each other affirmation, and making them feel part of something bigger.”

Says the arse end of the Human Centipede internet bully troupe.

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blindboy Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 5:30pm

Sorry for getting back to the topic just when we were all having such fun but good news should be spread. Monoclonal antibodies.......beats the hell out of ivermectin.
https://theconversation.com/covid-new-antibody-treatment-could-offer-up-...

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gsco Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 5:41pm

It was entertaining today. I was actually starting to worry that something had happened to blowin due to his disappearance. Glad all is well

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Hutchy 19 Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 5:42pm

Vic and Roady

Blowin is not my hero . He gave me shit when I first joined SN .

I must admit though I like supporting the "underdog " . I barrack for Melbourne ( also the Storm that are not underdogs but get treated like shit by the league ) .

Blowin and I were nearly Blood brothers . Indo and I were nearly brothers in arms .

Funny how some things work out .

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Supafreak Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 6:52pm

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 7:02pm

If anyone want to see America's best and brightest hyper-ventilating over pure fear/outrage porn here it is.

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Vic Local Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 7:34pm

Here's one instance where we should be able to smoke the peace pipe and agree that Candace is completely unhinged. Anyone disagree?

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brainiac Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 7:34pm
evosurfer wrote:

All I know after the 2nd jab ive lost at least 50% no more of energy
always feeling a little off but not really sick just not my usual sparky
self and tired all the time and I tire really quickly doing anything physical
it sucks and ive been missing a lot of good surfs because I just not up to it.

Hey Evo thats not good to hear. Was it AZ or pfizer?
Anybody that knows me knows thats not me.
As for a BOOSTER not a chance in the fucking world.

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Roadkill Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 7:58pm

Candice didn’t let facts get in the way of her misinformation.

She is a lover of hard right politics.

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truebluebasher Friday, 22 Oct 2021 at 10:37pm

evosurfer...suggest the Lagging Vaxerz site for niggling pains or Long Vaxerz for not getting outta bed.
Vax support Groups (Obviously Not Anti Vaxerz...many started out as the proudest of all vaxerz)
Long Vaxerz - https://www.c19vaxreactions.com/
Lagging Vaxerz - https://vestibular.org/forum/symptoms/tingling-numbness-in-body/
MD (Only) Papers https://www.medscape.com/sites/public/covid-19/vaccine-insights/how-conc...

US Blog is runnin' Oz Nurses Vax feedback from telegram...don't ask! tbb knows least about it!
Qld Govt are goin' on about Hospitals / Vax ...tbb searched and come up with these hard core insights.
Nurse's Vax accounts seem genuine & heartfelt, recording their last days working in Oz healthcare.
https://www.algora.com/Algora_blog/2021/09/27/gagged-australian-nurses-f...