COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

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blindboy Friday, 15 Oct 2021 at 7:32am

RWNJs at work. How violent inflammatory nonsense has real consequences
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02741-x?utm_source=Nature+Bri...

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Friday, 15 Oct 2021 at 8:14am

Joe Rogan destroys CNN medical expert .

"During the exchange, Gupta conceded that his network's framing of Ivermectin, a widely-prescribed anti-parasitic which has shown tremendous efficacy in treating Covid-19, was wrong.

"Calling it a horse de-wormer is not the most flattering thing, I get that," said Gupta.

"It's a lie on a news network - and it's a lie that they're conscious of. It's not a mistake. They're unfavorably framing it as veterinary medicine," Rogan shot back.

"Why would you say that when you're talking about a drug that's been given out to billions and billions of people? A drug that was responsible for one of the inventors winning the Nobel Prize in 2015?" the 54-year-old Rogan continued.

"A drug that has been shown to stop viral replication in vitro - you know that, right? Why would they lie and say that's horse de-wormer? I can afford people medicine, motherfucker. This is ridiculous."

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indo-dreaming Friday, 15 Oct 2021 at 8:15am

You're pretty naive BB if you think they are all RWNJ's, sure many are but many aren't, many couldn't care less about politics or other social related issues, before he blocked me for calling out his BS i saw you posting on Jim Banks FB threads, i even gave you likes for bringing common sense to the topic of climate change, he is a great example of someone that is not a RWNJ but has completely out there thoughts and ideas as are many of the guys (most surfers) that comment agreeing with his views.

There is literally millions of people like him who are not right or left and many active on social media they aren't all RWNJ there are plenty who are LWNJ too and just NJ

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blindboy Friday, 15 Oct 2021 at 8:27am

Posting inflammatory and violent nonsense potentially causes real world violence. In the example I posted was related to the pandemic and pretty clearly from people best classified as RWNJs. How that relates to Jim Banks views on climate change is beyond me.

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san Guine Friday, 15 Oct 2021 at 8:36am

I know I'm sounding like a broken record, but how is this possible given that we have had a year and a half to prepare. There is always an excuse never a solution! Encouraging (retired) nurses to come back to work so they can have their arses handed to them...hahaha

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/14/australia-has-200...

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sypkan Friday, 15 Oct 2021 at 8:43am

doesn't go well when CNN lying propagandaist actually has to face up to the lies the network has been peddling...

https://mobile.twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1448478540685463552?ref_src...

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/joe-rogan-crushes-cnn-over-ivermectin...

points to guy for trying... maybe some other propagandaists should have to face rogan... or maybe rogan on CNN.... now that would be some fake news meets reality tv...

I think we know why public debate ain't a thing anymore...

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stunet Friday, 15 Oct 2021 at 8:41am

Leigh Sales would, at least in part, disagree with you, BB.

Sure, RWNJs have their MO, and their medium of choice, but Sales' account of abuse on Twitter is pretty eye-opening and it's almost solely from the left. Open slather abuse has no natural political home.

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adam12 Friday, 15 Oct 2021 at 9:32am

I watched the Leigh Sales issue on twitter when it was going on. She was tweeting that covid didn't affect children and was called out. When people reasonably pointed out flaws in her information she just started blocking people. That's what got people upset. No one deserves vile abuse but I didn't see much of that, twitter lefties are upset with her as they perceive her as making politically biased and inaccurate comments and shutting down any criticism. Her outrage at being called out confirmed her bias to them. Laura Tingle doesn't cop it from those same people, she is the darling of the left on twitter. Some of the best journalism in Australia happens on twitter, people like Ronnie Salt, Jommy Tee, the Mad Fucking Witches, Friendly Jordies, etc, all break stories that the msm either steal or can't cover because they conflict with the commercial or political interests of the owners. :Leigh Sales pile on was justified and the abuse she claims she suffered was exaggerated IMO.

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gragagan Friday, 15 Oct 2021 at 11:22am

In todays news NSW announced they are ending quarantine requirements for international arrivals from Nov 1. That's pretty dumb.

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Roadkill Friday, 15 Oct 2021 at 11:41am
gragagan wrote:

In todays news NSW announced they are ending quarantine requirements for international arrivals from Nov 1. That's pretty dumb.

Just reading it. That is whako crazy.

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AndyM Friday, 15 Oct 2021 at 12:25pm

Another statement of “get vaxxed immediately because you’re about to be on your own”.
Wonder how the health system will handle it, the nurses I talk to are pretty worried.

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shortenism Friday, 15 Oct 2021 at 12:41pm

Its only whacko crazy if you are whacko crazy Roadkill.

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Roadkill Friday, 15 Oct 2021 at 1:04pm

Funny thing is, borders and international arrivals are a Fed issue. I don't think States get to pick and choose what happens with out international borders.

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indo-dreaming Friday, 15 Oct 2021 at 1:26pm
blindboy wrote:

Posting inflammatory and violent nonsense potentially causes real world violence. In the example I posted was related to the pandemic and pretty clearly from people best classified as RWNJs. How that relates to Jim Banks views on climate change is beyond me.

The point was disinformation around these issues, anti lock down, anti vax, the whole conspiracy theory thing be it climate change or covid or 9/11 or whatever isn't just a far right thing it covers so many spectrums, often not left or right

As does trolling around these issues or pushing the limits of trolling that can lead to violence or safety concerns or mental health issues.

Its just convenient for you and others often including media to lump them all as FRNJ but its not reality, far from it.

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blindboy Friday, 15 Oct 2021 at 1:55pm

The Nature article addressed threats and abuse to scientists who made public statements about the pandemic particularly in relation to vaccination and ivermectin. Was any of it from LWNJs? Maybe but given the subjects it sounds like Trump, Craig Kelly etc inspired nonsense. But OK fairness must prevail how about Diversely Inspired Commenters, DICs sounds good to me.

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gragagan Friday, 15 Oct 2021 at 1:55pm

International arrivals are meant to be a fed responsibility but they palmed it off to the states, so I'm guessing the states decide themselves how they want to handle it? Really worried about the hospital situation too. Can't see any logical reason why they won't increase funding, even if just for a one-off emergency thing. The PM claims that doctors, nurses etc are playing political games??

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tubeshooter Friday, 15 Oct 2021 at 4:11pm

Just heard that Hotel and home quarantine exemption for international travelers is only for double vaxed and negative covid tested Australian citizens at the moment. Feds over ride state on that one.

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Supafreak Friday, 15 Oct 2021 at 4:21pm

@tubeshooter , has it been defined which international airports in Australia will be open ? Is it just Sydney ? Does federal government have the right to open any states international airport ? Cant see WA or Qld being rushed to open their international borders if vaccination rate is still low .

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tubeshooter Friday, 15 Oct 2021 at 4:40pm

@Supafreak . I only heard Sydney , just caught a bit on the arvo news . Apparently Scumo pulled rank on the issue.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-58921373

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blindboy Saturday, 16 Oct 2021 at 6:47am
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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 16 Oct 2021 at 8:21am

A video that puts the history of vaccines efficacy in a 2 minute grab .

https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/friday-dark-humor-vaccine-efficacy-sc...

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blindboy Saturday, 16 Oct 2021 at 8:42am

Thanks Hutchy, every word true.

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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 16 Oct 2021 at 8:54am

BB - maybe the way you judge but not me .

If efficacy turns out to be not at the level originally predicted the first prediction is NOT true .

Same in economics as you should remember from your teaching days .

That is why the video is described as Black Humour . Everyone else gets it .

I understand you have a lot of trouble understanding how the REAL world works so no problem .

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blindboy Saturday, 16 Oct 2021 at 9:36am

Selective deafness mate. You only hear what you want to hear. Give me word for word off the video what you think is not true.

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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 16 Oct 2021 at 9:50am

You idiot BB . "Virtually 100% efficacious "- Fauci . That was at the start . You have "Selective deafness " and should listen to it again . You also need to extend yourself and read the captions -mate.

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blindboy Saturday, 16 Oct 2021 at 9:54am

So you don't think 94-96% is "virtually 100%?"

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 16 Oct 2021 at 10:39am

No - Do you think a survival rate from covid of 98-99% is virtually 100% ?

What about when it is proved it drop's below 90% ?

You are such a dogmatic FOOL .

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blindboy Saturday, 16 Oct 2021 at 10:41am

Changey changes, black dog, white monkey.

The usual tactics of the terminally deluded....quick change the subject ...so now we are supposed to talk about the precise satistical meaning of "virtually", Clever? ha ha ha ha

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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 16 Oct 2021 at 11:16am

BB- The word Virtually was in the video as I pointed out . You said everything in the video was TRUE . You started questioning its definition .

You said "So you don't think 94-96% is "virtually 100%?"

So I said NO and asked "Do you think a survival rate from covid of 98-99% is virtually 100% ?"

You don't answer but reply with bullshit .

"The usual tactics of the terminally deluded....quick change the subject ...so now we are supposed to talk about the precise satistical meaning of "virtually",

You are not being clever . You do not think about what you write . You don't make sense .

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blindboy Saturday, 16 Oct 2021 at 11:19am

Typical "conversation" with Hutchy.

Me: The sky is blue.

Hutchy: The sky is red and grey and green sometimes you'd have to be an idiot to say the sky is blue.

I really need to stop giving oxygen to idiots......but it's a guarantee of a good laugh!

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Saturday, 16 Oct 2021 at 11:41am

BB - I will let others be the judge of the colours they see from our conversations .

I fail to be amused by your posts . Disgusted in their inability to make a coherent point would be a closer definition .

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thermalben Saturday, 16 Oct 2021 at 1:37pm

Here's an interesting talking point.

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Roadkill Saturday, 16 Oct 2021 at 5:29pm

Imagine if we didn't have lockdown. Even with our minimal numbers our nurses and Drs and ICUs and hospitals struggle. It still surprises me how the stupid amongst our population could not see this.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-16/covid-lockdown-relief-heavy-weigh...

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Supafreak Saturday, 16 Oct 2021 at 6:13pm

NSW might hit 80% by Monday CBCB96-D5-FF96-4-C4-E-8-F4-A-1-F0-B32800-ADE

indo-dreaming's picture
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indo-dreaming Saturday, 16 Oct 2021 at 6:20pm
Supafreak wrote:

NSW might hit 80% by Monday CBCB96-D5-FF96-4-C4-E-8-F4-A-1-F0-B32800-ADE

A good news post:

Plus:

NSW 1st dose 92%
ACT 1st dose 95%

Amazing effort i never thought they would get that high.

Vic 1st dose 88%
Tas 1st dose 82%

Other states still below 75% for first jab.

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shortenism Saturday, 16 Oct 2021 at 6:26pm

And imagine roadkill a pandemic so severe that those health workers you mention many of them who battled through the ‘peak’ are now being laid off by the 1000s for refusing the mandatory jab of an experimental substance. Mind boggling ei.

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Roadkill Saturday, 16 Oct 2021 at 6:25pm
Supafreak wrote:

NSW might hit 80% by Monday CBCB96-D5-FF96-4-C4-E-8-F4-A-1-F0-B32800-ADE

Good stuff…a few states lagging need to up their game.

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Supafreak Saturday, 16 Oct 2021 at 10:51pm

Besides Fauci, do you reckon these blokes are making better $ now with their new employer’s ? Seems to be a pattern that as you climb the ladder in the FDA , you eventually end up in pig pharma . Not that there’s anything wrong with that . 0152510-B-AE1-C-426-B-BCF4-B0-F1-B71363-F0
upload pic

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san Guine Saturday, 16 Oct 2021 at 11:03pm
shortenism wrote:

And imagine roadkill a pandemic so severe that those health workers you mention many of them who battled through the ‘peak’ are now being laid off by the 1000s for refusing the mandatory jab of an experimental substance. Mind boggling ei.

I'm going to call you out on this shortenism, that is simply untrue, 100's of nurses maybe, across Australia. The vast majority of us HCW's are sucking up the shit and looking after our unvaccinated patients, who are >90% of the hospital admitted COVID patients.

The current in- joke in our hospital, is that the easiest job in the hospital is working in our COVID ICU (despite the PPE requirements). The reason is that these patients are all intubated (FYI approx 50% we have paralysed to manage their ventilation). They are stable and heading in one of 2 directions...death or survival, they are on the edge of their existence on this planet - from a clinical perspective very easy to manage. They respond to treatment or they don't...fact.

The problem for the health system is that those COVID patients on the Wards (remember this is not ICU) require a disproportionate amount of support with our very finite resources. In my health service as of last night, we have 3 Wards full of COVID patients only and a separate ICU for COVID patients. So that works out to be a loss of 90 Ward beds and 10 ICU beds, just for unvaccinated COVID patients. We are about to close 2 other Wards to regular admissions and open them only for COVID patients.

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Roadkill Sunday, 17 Oct 2021 at 12:51pm
san Guine wrote:
shortenism wrote:

And imagine roadkill a pandemic so severe that those health workers you mention many of them who battled through the ‘peak’ are now being laid off by the 1000s for refusing the mandatory jab of an experimental substance. Mind boggling ei.

I'm going to call you out on this shortenism, that is simply untrue, 100's of nurses maybe, across Australia. The vast majority of us HCW's are sucking up the shit and looking after our unvaccinated patients, who are >90% of the hospital admitted COVID patients.

The current in- joke in our hospital, is that the easiest job in the hospital is working in our COVID ICU (despite the PPE requirements). The reason is that these patients are all intubated (FYI approx 50% we have paralysed to manage their ventilation). They are stable and heading in one of 2 directions...death or survival, they are on the edge of their existence on this planet - from a clinical perspective very easy to manage. They respond to treatment or they don't...fact.

The problem for the health system is that those COVID patients on the Wards (remember this is not ICU) require a disproportionate amount of support with our very finite resources. In my health service as of last night, we have 3 Wards full of COVID patients only and a separate ICU for COVID patients. So that works out to be a loss of 90 Ward beds and 10 ICU beds, just for unvaccinated COVID patients. We are about to close 2 other Wards to regular admissions and open them only for COVID patients.

Well said.

The selfish self interested still won’t care.

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shortenism Sunday, 17 Oct 2021 at 1:31pm

100s not 1000s you say guine? Either way it’s a lot of health care staff to lose in a pandemic so severe that the wheels are falling off. Surely, based on the COVID horror story you continue to pedal a single loss of a staffer is a big deal?

This is the bit I know where morons like roadkill try to spray anyone for raising a simple point but what ever way you look at it , It makes no sense to force something ppl do t want to the point your front line workers are walking off the job.

Further, what about the $1M lotto offered to a lucky jab recipient plus all the free donuts and beverages handed out. Imagine the additional resources this could have supported in our health system.

And BTW san guine, you appear to be really active on here but II haven’t seen any commentary from u as the resident insider on AHPRA and their roll in managing the narrative or whether your hospital receives any additional revenue from COVID cases in any form? Any dirt or above your pay grade?

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Supafreak Sunday, 17 Oct 2021 at 4:26pm

Never let the truth get in the way of a good story. https://rescue.substack.com/p/horse-bleep-how-4-calls-on-animal

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GuySmiley Sunday, 17 Oct 2021 at 5:19pm

Anyone heard how all this Ivermectin use in humans is going to effect the Spring Racing Season both on and off the track?

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Michael Adam Sunday, 17 Oct 2021 at 5:36pm

Trump derangement continues…

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Michael Adam Sunday, 17 Oct 2021 at 5:37pm

.

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san Guine Sunday, 17 Oct 2021 at 8:28pm

Shortenism,

"And BTW san guine, you appear to be really active on here but II haven’t seen any commentary from u as the resident insider on AHPRA and their roll in managing the narrative or whether your hospital receives any additional revenue from COVID cases in any form? Any dirt or above your pay grade?

"

Mate, I wish I could manage the narrative, you give me far too much credit. Haha.

You think a hospital actively wants to attract extra revenue by accepting COVID patients? Your on your own their champ...

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truebluebasher Sunday, 17 Oct 2021 at 10:05pm

CDC do their best to counter the latest Qldurrz CHO Goth Vax Promo.
Titled! "We're all gonna die, aren't we!"

"CDC definition of Vaccine is waning faster than last season's booster Jab."

Feb 2011 - "Product that produces immunity therefore protecting the body from disease!"

July 2015 - "A product that stimulates a person's immune system to a specific disease, protecting the person from that disease!"

Aug 2021 - "A product that stimulates a person's immune system to produce immunity to a specific disease, protecting the person from that disease!"

Sept 2021 - "A preparation that is used to stimulate the body's immune response against diseases!"

*Vax is no longer a thing but merely a twinkle in a Lab Rats ear part eye.
*Vax no longer directly stimulates against anything specific at all really...we promise you that?
*Vax fails to produce immunity against this or that or anything else that may or may not be bugging you!
*Vax no longer protects you, me or the neighbour's cat against the Boogie man.
https://vervetimes.com/cdc-changes-the-definition-of-vaccines/

Congrats Vax! Today is the Vaxtice Anniversary of world's largest ever real time Vax Trial.
tbb never hesitated to celebrate monumental Vax!
30th Jan 2020 WHO calls Pandemic
8th Dec 2020 (312 days on...World Vax Rollout begins) 68,850,317 cases > 1,651,309 deaths
17th Oct 2021 (312 days on...World Covid) 241,152,176 cases up 250% > 4,909,670 deaths up 197%
36% World Vax has stimulated > 172, 301,859 extra cases > 3,258,361 extra deaths

World Rollout Highlights!
Jan 2021 Sluggish rise & Fastest/Sharpest Drop in Covid cases / deaths with min Vax at less than 1%
April 2021 Fastest highest Rising Covid Peak with Vax on Tap.
June 2021 World Vax Peak
Aug -Oct 2021 World Vax takes a Dive > Covid cases & Deaths are waning without Vax stimulation.
US have binned 15m doses & Death rates are headin' towards pre vax lows. (Less Vax = Less Covid)
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=~OWID_WRL
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Mass Vax #1 Data shows Vax down for the count ... now at the crossroads!
It seems the World has shot itself in the foot.
Longest spell of declining Vax = longest spell of declining Covid Cases & deaths...(That's good right?)
Vax & it's dodgy score cards has been booted & laughed off the World stage.
Don't write off Vax...it has mandated a ferocious Bully Squad > "One Of Us One Of Us One Of Us!"

Next Level [Vaccine Passes] can easily flood the World with deadly covid
Currently UK Fully Vaccinated present as 60% of all infected cases get rewarded spreader Passes.
NSW [+] Full vaxed rise 1.5% wk to 600 > Vic [+] Full Vaxed rise 3.5% wk to 1,500
Oz #1 fastest Covid spreaders are also obviously rewarded [ VIP Vax spreading Passes ]
Unvaxed will of course be mandated to isolate their ongoing 10% Covid reduction powers.

[AZ Pass ] 6 months efficacy wanes to 50% no vax levels within 3 months
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/09/studies-show-good-co...
[Pfizer Pass] 6 months efficacy wanes to 50% no vax levels within 4-5 months
https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/new-usa-study-confirms-ve-wanes-t...
Meaning Govts are mandating max spread of #1 infectious Mass Vaxed Covid Spreaderz.
Wealthy Govts ramp Covid to then open the flood gates to drown out the hesitants.
Lab Rat Race have little time for hesitant Human Beings....Game Over!

(Tip)
Vaxed crew might return from o/s within sciency Vax efficacy time frame or Govts may lock you out!
Many travellers have had 6 month Passes max out automatically at 5 months...WTF.
tbb is not joking, as small print defaults to current science! (3/4 month lock out could be factored in!)
Best follow CDC Ultra Hesitant Vax cop out or be prepared to be stimulated by Dutto on return!

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thermalben Monday, 18 Oct 2021 at 1:39pm

Curious on your thoughts, Supafreak.

"A Sydney gastroenterologist who has been enthusiastically promoting an unapproved Covid-19 treatment, including to Australian politicians and general practitioners, has filed a patent in the US for the same treatment, allowing him to commercialise and profit from it, if approved."

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/18/doctor-who-advoca...

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Supafreak Monday, 18 Oct 2021 at 2:34pm

@malben , the last part of the article , “He shared his Covid-19 therapy for free with other Australian general practitioners who requested it. It was not illegal then, and it is not illegal now, for my client to have shared his protocol with Australian general practitioners who wanted it.” He also shared it for free with india and the trials that were done in bangladesh , he treated some high profile doctors in the US who went onto come up with their own protocols . Australia had the opportunity at the very beginning to try the TGA approved drugs he was suggesting . When it comes to articles on ivermectin from the guardian , I tend to take them with a grain of salt as they have reported misinformation twice now only to retract it days later . If Borody now stands to make money for his efforts, good on him . He copped a lot of criticism from the media and AMA from the beginning when the protocol was to do nothing, go home and see how sick you get . D o you seriously believe his motive from the beginning was to make money from this ? Doesn’t seem to be short of a buck and has 4 FDA approved drugs on patent. Maybe have a look at the early reports from August 2020 on this . I’m really curious as to why all the attention to discredit ivermectin is so fierce from media and pig pharma , surely if it didn’t work then countries that were using it in combination therapy would have found out by now. Have a look at how many prescriptions have been written in the US . I can see the media have done more damage in the US in the way they have approached this , people don’t trust the media because of past BS and then to continue it with claims of horse paste poisoning was out of control. This was also proven to be BS . People may think , if they BS about this , what else are they BS about ? The media is causing vaccination hesitating in the US by continuing to print fake news . Maybe have a look at the power over hospitals , doctors and health agencies that are influenced by pig pharma. Please don’t start with conspiracy theories , its just plain old greed and corruption that has existed in governments and their agencies for decades . But yeah lets have a go at a Australian Doctor as the real villain here .