COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 5:57pm

That's what the evidence says supa. And I do have an idea. More than an idea actually, a science degree and 30 years of teaching senior Biology including epidemiology, the human immune system and the evaluation of research. Not to mention a daughter who is a nurse on the frontline who updates me regularly. What about you? What are your qualifications and experience?

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Supafreak Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 6:10pm
blindboy wrote:

That's what the evidence says supa. And I do have an idea. More than an idea actually, a science degree and 30 years of teaching senior Biology including epidemiology, the human immune system and the evaluation of research. Not to mention a daughter who is a nurse on the frontline who updates me regularly. What about you? What are your qualifications and experience?

I don’t actually believe you , your just like me , a random bloke posting on a surf forum , you can make up whatever you want . I’m done with you .

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Supafreak Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 6:10pm
blindboy wrote:

That's what the evidence says supa. And I do have an idea. More than an idea actually, a science degree and 30 years of teaching senior Biology including epidemiology, the human immune system and the evaluation of research. Not to mention a daughter who is a nurse on the frontline who updates me regularly. What about you? What are your qualifications and experience?

I don’t actually believe you , your just like me , a random bloke posting on a surf forum , you can make up whatever you want . I’m done with you .

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blindboy Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 6:13pm

Well you are wrong but it's a pity you don't put thst scepticism to better use.

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Supafreak Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 8:49pm

Some eye watering figures on profit that Merck stands to possibly make , no wonder they declined kitasato university and satoshi omura ( nobel prize winner ) who wanted to team up and do trials for ivermectin . No conspiracy here just good old plain and simple greed , but they gotta look after the shareholders so totally understandable . https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/10/08/anti-covid-drug...

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blindboy Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 9:11pm

The Nature article below takes a broader view. Being designed to disrupt the replication of nucleic acids the drug does have risks which need to be assessed before it is approved. Changing the sequence of nucleotides changes the polypeptide produced and, potentially, the function of the virus. In the majority of cases this will either have no effect or produce a negative effect on its ability to reproduce. Changes that made it more infectious or more pathogenic would be expected to be rare but could occur. As for the cost India have already produced a generic version.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02783-1

Good to see you moving on.....I hope.

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Supafreak Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 9:28pm

And Australian has ordered 300,000 courses at over $900 per course . Did you find the paper yet on 26 fraudulent trials ?

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Supafreak Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 9:28pm

Just kidding, you know they don’t exist

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truebluebasher Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 10:36pm

All Hail Vax! On this day in our blessed Rollout History ...What price freedom?

1st Covid Cases -20th Feb 2021 Pre Vax - Oz averaged 74.5 cases/day > 2.34 deaths/per day
Rollout 21st Feb -12th Oct 2021- averaging 440 cases/day (490% covid ramp) > 2.37 deaths/day.

How do we bury this ironic fast rising death spike when celebrating the success of the Rollout.
Post Vax World is ultra competitive & Isolated Oz is gaining enemies with Oil prices Rising...
No! Not all countries wear this Vax shame & insurance may re-evaluate dodgy Oz made Vax!
Crew would not blink if France EU fairly grounded Oz Vax on low efficacy rate...think they won't do it!

Rollout is at 63.4% > All Vax Covid stats are racing higher than former plummeting No Vax Delta peak!
Meaning our Rollout clearly continues to present least healthy for us and by world standards.
Dump the holier than thou Convict pantomime...time to grow up & realize Vax has us on Death Row.
How good is a Top 10 Covid Death Destination Oz PostCard.

Oz is now a regular in World Covid new deaths and only one of few with death data still rising.
Often darts into the Top Ten & higher.
Leaders pride that our death tally will rise further...we are now those guys on the World Horror List?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table

States:
NSW Highest Mass Ramping Vax 75.3% (Note NSW recorded 0 case days in week before Vax)
No Vax Avg 13.26 cases/day > Rollout Ramp Avg 276.42 cases/day (1,985%) rise with Vax
No Vax Avg 0.14 Deaths/day > Rollout Ramp Avg 1.9 deaths/day (1,257%) rise with Vax

WA Lowest (No Ramp) Ultra Casual Vax 52.54% (Note several Delta Outbreaks)
No Vax 2.35 cases/day > Rollout 0.86 cases/day...(173%) drop in cases with slowest possible vax.
No Vax 9 deaths (Total) > Rollout 0 deaths (Total)

Oz leaders & MSM bully WA to open up & ramp up to NSW [Gold Standard]
WA Premier :
"The idea that we would prematurely decide to deliberately import the Virus is complete madness."

All Oz Leaders & Breaky TV warn daily...we all gotta upgrade to Gold Standard ...Cough! Cough!

Here's a more Worldly View!

Similar Oz Bullies almost killed off the Japanese race with pre Olympics IOC Vax Ramp...Do it! NOW!
Soon as Bullies pissed off...Japan binned 50% Vax > dropping 25,000 cases/day.
Without IOC bullies > Japan no longer ramp & can vax 3x Oz amount for just a third of our daily cases
Again! Let that be lesson of how fast Oz Gold Standard ramps to shitty Olympic IOC Vax Standard.

(Wales) Hospitalizations (Full Vaxed 80% > 1 dose 7% > Unvaxed 13%) No one thinks it's odd!
Soon 95% of Covid Patients will be Double Vaxed...will stay like that forever...unless offered a Detox!
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-58680204

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 2:05am

interesting vid

everyone should watch this and make up their own minds

https://www.bitchute.com/video/bsvK95i6njvd/

sure looks legit. to me

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sypkan Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 2:07am

everyone should watch the vid that loads after it too

except blindboy, he might blow a gasket

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sypkan Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 2:31am

which is this one...

just in case you have a bent algorithm, or there's a conspiracy, or a book burning, or something...

https://www.bitchute.com/video/6tFm9Ph1vnSS/

and to the looming reactive cries of 'bullshit' and 'conspiracy', ...blah blah blsh...

they must be good actors, looks pretty genuine to me...

and, for balance, the numbers are not that significant, considering... i guess...

(but the cover up, lying, censorship, and 'misinformation' is... (for some of us...))

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blindboy Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 7:08am

Talking to yourself in the middle of the night slippery? Not a good sign.

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san Guine Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 7:20am

Excellent use of medications...landfill.

"...the drug – which has legitimate uses as an antimalarial, and to treat rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, and porphyria cutanea tarda – sat unclaimed for eight months."

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/13/five-million-dose...

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blindboy Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 8:22am

The limbo master demonstrating his skills. No matter how low the bar he'll such that bloated gut in and wiggle under it.

sypkan's picture
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sypkan Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 11:52am

"Talking to yourself in the middle of the night slippery? Not a good sign."

that's all you've got?

aside from being wrong...

again...

pretty pathetic

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 12:04pm

Well if you make a clear statement and back it up with a link to the evidence, I might be more interested but I will probably ignore your usual mix of confused assertions. You rarely have a point.

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sypkan Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 12:24pm

the doc vid blindboy...

it's pretty clear and self explanatory

but you 'interpret' it however you like

as you do...

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 12:57pm

Given your history of posting complete off with the fairies bullshit, I'd rather not. The arguments are over slippery, common sense won. Heading to 90% vaccination rate, ivermectin use restricted to the moronic fringe. If you thinkmyou still have a point out it up.in plain simple language I really couldn't be bothered with another fuckwit droning lies into a camera.

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sypkan Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 1:34pm

"Given your history of posting complete off with the fairies bullshit,"

you really are the most shameless of shameless little man propagandaists...

I'd love you to point out my list of things that have proven to be bullshit

and, I'd be happy to extend you the courtesy of listing yours...

again...

mate, you really really need to accept that you saying something is bullshit laced with vitriol doesn't make it so... you do it so so so much, and it's a bit tiresome...

as to the rest of your post, as I said, you've got your 90%, chill out grumblebum, if you want to remain ignorant and brainwashed... good for you... not very scientific thinking though I must say...

if others are a bit more inquiring... good for them...

it really isn't about this personal vendetta game you reduce every thread to

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garyg1412 Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 1:32pm
udo wrote:

https://www.abc.net.au/everyday/being-pro-vaccine-in-anti-vax-community-...

Sign of the times when we punish people we know by removing them from our Facebook Friends list. I suppose in Byron they would only be your celestial friends anyway.

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blindboy Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 1:38pm

Never taken kindly to bullshit artists mate and you are one in a million, a smug, self righteous know nothing. And as for your your opinion of me? I'm trying to care less but no, reached bottom on that one.

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sypkan Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 2:18pm

but its clearly not me that is the bullshit artist

your record speaks for itself

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blindboy Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 2:24pm

Feel free to ignore me! Sounds like a win win.

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blindboy Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 2:33pm

Progress is being made on the origin of the virus. Take your pick but the smart money is still on a natural origin

“….a group of online sleuths found and leaked to the press a major grant proposal from 2018 that demonstrates the high-level of interest researchers, including those in Wuhan, had in manipulating bat coronaviruses, suggesting to some that such work could indeed have played a role in causing the pandemic.”

“ In Laos, meanwhile, researchers identified a virus that is 96.8 percent identical to SARS-CoV-2; it is one of three viruses found in caves there that are each more than 95 percent identical to the COVID-19 virus. Their study was released as a preprint last month, meaning it has yet to be peer-reviewed. The previous record was a virus documented by researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology that is 96.2 percent identical. The Lao viruses are nearly exactly the same as SARS-CoV-2 in one particularly important area of their structure, the receptor binding domain that attaches to human cells. They don’t, however, contain “the so-called furin cleavage site on the spike protein that further aids the entry of SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses into human cells,” a recent article in Nature notes.
The Lao viruses are still not genetically close enough to SARS-CoV-2 to have spawned COVID-19. The so-called progenitor virus should be 99.9 percent the same as the pandemic virus, Linfa Wang, the director of the emerging infectious diseases program at Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore told the Science panel. However, “[t]he core, functional part of SARS-CoV-2 has a natural origin,” Wang told Science for a piece on the Laos find. “It’s proven.”
https://thebulletin.org/2021/10/the-origin-of-covid-19-evidence-piles-up...

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Roadkill Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 4:15pm
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

Bogan Australis is doing us all proud..12am and NSW dicks have to rush to the pubs, get haircuts and go stupid. It’s been such a hard lockdown sacrifice for the snowflakes…lead by Perrottet who had to get photos at the pub chugging down beer. Pretty funny stuff.

30+ years ago I lived in Rose Bay and there were 2 sisters that were survivors from Nazi Germany who lived above us. Both had numbers tattooed on their wrists. Really nice people with a really sad history of family members murdered and gassed to death. They would come down and have a sunday BBQ with us a couple of times a year…once they opened up and told us their story. I always remember that story and afternoon with them when I hear others whinge and moan about how tough life in lockdown is.

And how do you think the persecution against those women began genius?

BTW….you want to talk about triggered snowflakes?

A bunch of double vaccinated crew who’ve been in lockdowns for months celebrate their release with a few beers in a pub- still socially distancing- and some soft cock chicken shit who lives 2000kms away has a whinge because he thinks he’ll catch the virus despite him being double vaccinated and the survival rate being 99.58%.

How much of a soft cock chicken shit can you be bloke!?

Seems to be a standard response from the ever diminishing anti vax clowns.
These clowns feed off each new irrational idea one of their own generate.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/news-life/comparing-vaccinat...

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adam12 Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 4:54pm

"And how do you think the persecution against those women began genius?"
Because of our victories on the Western Front in WW1, Australia played a leading role at the Treaty of Versailles which placed onerous reparations on the Germans which led to the rise of Hitler and the Nazis and the camps. So you could say in answer to that question...us. In reality there were many 'beginnings'. The question has many answers, none relevant to the issue. Godwins Law.(sooner or later every internet discussion ends up in a comparison to the holocaust)

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 4:43pm

Grown men who call others triggered snowflakes, who then post links about using WW2 references they find offensive and obscene……lolol.

Run bloke…..obscene references!!!!!!

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 4:47pm
adam12 wrote:

"And how do you think the persecution against those women began genius?"
Because of our victories on the Western Front in WW1, Australia played a leading role at the Treaty of Versailles which placed onerous reparations on the Germans which led to the rise of Hitler and the Nazis and the camps. So you could say in answer to that question...us.

Yeah, good and accurate summary bloke!

Just like how the first mudskipper to crawl out of the elemental ooze back at the dawn of time is directly responsible for Souths losing the Grand Final.

No fooling you.

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 5:26pm

If only they had listened to Keynes......

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Supafreak Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 5:55pm

Provisional determination granted to Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine (COMIRNATY) - proposed for use in children 5-11 years of age Currently, COMIRNATY is provisionally approved for use in individuals 12 years of age or older. The granting of this determination means that Pfizer is now eligible to apply to vary the provisional approval for the vaccine to include children aged 5 to 11 years. https://www.tga.gov.au/provisional-determination-granted-pfizers-covid-1...

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 6:05pm

Lots of anxious parents waiting for vaccine access for their kids, so that's good news. Thanks supafreak.

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Roadkill Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 6:07pm

Both my 16 year olds had their 2nd AZ this week. So, we are done now.

Craig's picture
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Craig Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 6:25pm

Got my second AZ today, ready to roll.

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Roadkill Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 6:28pm
Roadkill wrote:

Both my 16 year olds had their 2nd AZ this week. So, we are done now.

Correction…Pfizer.

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zenagain Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 7:44pm

Junior high school and above kids being vaxxed here now. I had both mine a couple of months ago.

Btw- and I'm neither here nor there on this but after the Olympics we had our fourth wave with cases in the thousands per day. I don't know what to attribute it to but corona has plummeted recently with I think Tokyo having around 70 new cases yesterday and our prefecture had 5. We've had no lockdowns and with the exception of wearing masks in public, and hand sanitising when entering a business, life is pretty normal. There are no QR code thingys or having to sign in and certainly no proof of vaccine required. I have applied for my vax passport in order to fly internationally when the time comes.

Also, Ivermectin IS being regularly prescribed here as a complimentary treatment for early and milder cases of corona. I can't comment on its efficacy. I guess maybe, just like viagra, it may be one of those drugs that was developed for something but has seen some benefit for something else. Hell, who would have known Ketomine is an effective anti-depressant?

Finally, I think it's sad what's going on back home, the level of anger, the division and personally what I think is the intrusiveness and heavy handed approach by the government. I'm 100% all for vaccination but I don't think it's a good idea mandating it. Maybe they should just ask nicely? That always works for me.

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Supafreak Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 7:50pm

@zen , is Pfizer the main vaccine ?

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zenagain Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 7:53pm

Yes, followed by Moderna.

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 8:00pm
zenagain wrote:

Junior high school and above kids being vaxxed here now. I had both mine a couple of months ago.

Btw- and I'm neither here nor there on this but after the Olympics we had our fourth wave with cases in the thousands per day. I don't know what to attribute it to but corona has plummeted recently with I think Tokyo having around 70 new cases yesterday and our prefecture had 5. We've had no lockdowns and with the exception of wearing masks in public, and hand sanitising when entering a business, life is pretty normal. There are no QR code thingys or having to sign in and certainly no proof of vaccine required. I have applied for my vax passport in order to fly internationally when the time comes.

Also, Ivermectin IS being regularly prescribed here as a complimentary treatment for early and milder cases of corona. I can't comment on its efficacy. I guess maybe, just like viagra, it may be one of those drugs that was developed for something but has seen some benefit for something else. Hell, who would have known Ketomine is an effective anti-depressant?

Finally, I think it's sad what's going on back home, the level of anger, the division and personally what I think is the intrusiveness and heavy handed approach by the government. I'm 100% all for vaccination but I don't think it's a good idea mandating it. Maybe they should just ask nicely? That always works for me.

Zen, how do the Japanese approach covid jabs…pretty compliant?

Are there any anti vax movements over there?

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zenagain Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 8:01pm

Very very compliant. But it's in their nature. By definition they are in interdependent society as in the group always comes first.

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fitzroy-21 Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 8:02pm

My 14 &12 year olds got their first shots at school today. Wife & I get our second next week.

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Roadkill Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 8:04pm

Zen, GIRI goes a long way.

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tubeshooter Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 8:30pm

hehe Looks like the goal posts might be getting moved again for Greater Sydney etc regarding regional travel , even after the state reaches 80% double vax.
yew

shortenism's picture
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shortenism Wednesday, 13 Oct 2021 at 9:59pm

Ready to roll with nowhere to go but back for your booster shot(s)... well done on your contribution to Scomos KPIs.

san Guine's picture
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san Guine Thursday, 14 Oct 2021 at 7:36am

How well designed is this? Instant isolation...brilliant
https://gamahealthcare.com/rediroom

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Supafreak Thursday, 14 Oct 2021 at 10:43am

You may be interested in this story san Guine , there going to need something to attract more people to this sector . https://www.ft.com/partnercontent/j-and-j/what-is-the-cure-for-the-globa...

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san Guine Friday, 15 Oct 2021 at 7:00am

Thanks Supa, nil surprises there. I did laugh at this though...

"Countries experiencing excessive losses of their nursing workforce through out-migration should consider mitigating measures and retention packages, such as improving salaries (and pay equity) and working conditions, creating professional development opportunities and allowing nurses to work to their full scope of education and training,” says the report, which is the first of its kind to be issued by the WHO."

I get paid less than your average tradie (no offence to tradies intended, you deserve what you earn), despite having post graduate qualifications, 15 years experience and dealing with people on the very edge of life and death everyday (not exaggerating here either).

What's worse is that we are 'stealing' nurses from other countries (often less developed than Australia) to bolster our workforce.