The current synoptic pattern is a low pressure system E of Tasmania directing a fetch of SSW to S strong winds to low end gales adjacent to the NSW South Coast. This low then eases as it moves out into the Tasman sea later today.
Although the core of the low will be positioned off NE Tasmania, with the strongest winds just outside the South Arm’s swell window, the fetch will reach maturity overnight Sunday and it’ll also extend a reasonable distance to the south.
Freshening SW winds this afternoon are related to a weak front crossing the coast. They’ll strengthen overnight and hold through Saturday before veering S/SE on Sunday and starting to ease back a bit.
Sunday’s developing low east of Tasmania looks quite interesting, as it’ll remain slow moving, which will keep onshore winds across Victorian beaches through Monday.
Next week still looks like being marred by a constant onshore flow until Thursday as a node of the long wave trough directs weak fronts into the SW.
A dynamic weekend is ahead as a robust Tasman low forms near the Island overnight Sat.
The current Tasman low has drifted out and become absorbed into a long, NE/SW angled trough in the South Pacific, which is currently organising and energising a broad but thin fetch of E’ly gales from the South Pacific down into the Tasman Sea adjacent to the North Island.
The current Tasman low has drifted out and become absorbed into a long, NE/SW angled trough in the South Pacific, which is currently organising and energising a broad but thin fetch of E’ly gales from the South Pacific down into the Tasman Sea adjacent to the North Island.
The low has now passed through the area and is weakening in the Bight, with a long trailing fetch of W’ly winds bringing continued onshore conditions as local storm surf slowly eases back through tomorrow.
A thin front traversing the western Bight is generating a small new W’ly swell that’s expected to provide a small flush of surf to the Mid.
