Coupla small windows of waves for the Mid Coast
South Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 20th October)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Tiny surf down south Thurs/Fri/Sat
- Fun small swell on the Mid on Fri
- Bigger surf for the Mid on Sat with OK conditions under a S/SE breeze
- Not much for next week, fun small surf down south Tues/Wed the pick
A temporary window of light NE winds east of Victor allowed for OK surf conditions early Tuesday, before the easterlies kicked back in mid-morning, tending southerly at strength through the day. Size maintained early 2-3ft sets but eased to 2ft by the afternoon, 1-2ft this morning and it's almost flat this afternoon. The Mid’s been unsurfably small both days.
This week (Oct 21 - 22)
There’s not a lot of juice left in the tank.
The Southern Ocean is now rather quiet; buoy data from Cape du Couedic is abating steadily and swell periods indicate it’s mainly windswell.
As such we’re not expecting much surf on Thursday, which is a shame as freshening NW winds ahead of a trough should keep conditions clean at Victor. Only the swell magnets will have tiny waves at best.
A thin front traversing the western Bight (see below) is generating a small new W’ly swell that’s expected to arrive overnight Thursday, and provide a small flush of surf to the Mid on Friday, along with light winds under the trough pattern.
Wave heights probably won’t top much more than a slow 1-2ft across the reefs (best into the afternoon) but it’ll be worth a quick fitness paddle. Keep an eye out for a late freshening SW breeze as a front rears up from the west, but for the most part winds should be under 10kts.
The westerly swell direction will result in very small conditions at Victor on Friday, thanks to the shadowing offered by Kangaroo Island.
This weekend (Oct 23 - 24)
Fresh southerly quadrant winds all weekend will create a mess of surf conditions at Victor Harbor.
As it is, Saturday will remain small, with small lingering W’ly swell from Friday favouring the Mid - and winds should be a little lighter in the gulf, too - but ultimately it’ll probably have some degree of bumpiness on top. Don’t get your hopes up.
Sunday looks better, for the Mid at least.
Late on Saturday, the leading edge of a new long period groundswell is expected to arrive, generated by a large, intense low pressure system way out near Heard Island at the moment. The large travel distance will result in significant wave decay, but the direction and alignment is good for the Mid Coast and we should see building surf into the 2ft range, possibly some 2-3ft sets through the afternoon with some ideal assistance.
Even better, winds will veer S/SE as a high ridges in from the west. It’ll become a little breezey into the afternoon but there’ll be options to pick and choose from.
The South Coast will pick up the same swell on Sunday with Middleton expected to push 3-4ft, however it’ll be pretty bumpy under the accompanying S/SE breeze.
Next week (Oct 25 onwards)
There’s been a few changes in the outlook for next week.
Slowly easing surf on Monday will be accompanied by much lighter winds, however Tuesday and Wednesday are looking really good for Victor as winds veer NE and freshen. We’ll be back to 2ft+ surf across the Middleton stretch by this time but there’ll be decent beaches across exposed spots.
The Mid Coast should see 1-2ft residual surf on Monday (leftover from Sunday) ahead of a small pulse of long range swell on Tuesday - generated by a large though distant storm way out west of Heard Island - so it’ll probably just keep things ticking along with inconsistent 1-1.5ft sets.
A new blocking pattern developing upstream this weekend will otherwise shut down the supply of new (close range) swell to our region, which will probably affect things until the following weekend - there’s a suggestion that the storm track will start to regroup in the Southern Ocean during the middle to latter part of next week. But, that’s all still quite some time away.
More on this in Friday’s update.