Very active storm track in the Indian Ocean drives continuing large swell to WA with brief windows of favourable winds

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 27th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • XL groundswell for Wed with variable winds (E'ly offshore in the morning Perth and Mandurah)
  • Easing swell Thu with strengthening NE winds, tending NW in the a’noon
  • Strong rebuild Fri with XL surf Sat and onshore winds
  • Strong, easing swells Sun with winds becoming favourable
  • More onshores next week as fronts reach sub-tropical latitudes


Onshore winds spoiled the party yesterday but today has seen a large pulse of swell and offshore winds extending through the f/cast region with size in the 10-12ft range between the Capes, grading smaller 3-4ft in Mandurah and 3ft in Perth.

Plenty of size on the reefs today

This week and next week (Jul 27 - Aug5)

Very active Indian Ocean storm track continues with fronts and deep lows forming near Heard Island before being steered NE towards WA as decaying fronts. That's seeing multiple large swell events over the f/cast period.

In the short run todays large swell eases through tomorrow although with plenty of size early, in the 6-8ft range easing through the day with smaller 3ft surf in Mandurah, 2ft in Perth. Early NE winds in Perth, swing more NW through the day elsewhere in the region as the next front arrives. 

That front brings fresh W’lies through Fri, although not as strong as f/cast on Mon. Expect onshores and building size, up into the 8ft range in Margarets, smaller 3ft+ in Mandurah and 2-3ft in Perth. 

Serious swell energy combined with the short period storm surf brings XL surf Sat, with size in the 12ft range between the Capes, smaller 3-4ft in Mandurah and 3ft in Perth. SW tending SSW winds will open up a few more protected winter spots for surfing on Sat.

Sundays swell gets a minor downgrade as the expected storm force low due south of WA doesn’t aim up as well in the swell window. We’ll still see some SSW angled swell in the 6ft range at exposed breaks, smaller 2ft in Mandurah and tiny in Perth due to the swell direction. Winds look good though as high pressure ridges in and a light offshore flow develops. Get on it Sunday.

More XL surf for next week. There’ll be a brief window Mon morning with NE winds and easing surf in the 4ft range in Margaret River, tiny elsewhere. Those winds will tend NNW, then W as the next front hits.

This one looks like a doozy. Expect gales extending into sub-tropical latitudes with the SW corner seeing lighter but still strong W to WSW winds Tues and surf in the 12-15ft range. Smaller 4-5ft in Mandurah and 3ft in Perth.

That will see a couple of easing days of surf to end next week with winds becoming favourable Fri (possibly Thurs).

More swell energy is lined up behind this, although following systems look to be a notch below he current ones.

Check back Fri for the latest.




nicko74's picture
nicko74's picture
nicko74 Wednesday, 27 Jul 2022 at 7:42pm

My shoulders are just hanging in

smokeydogg's picture
smokeydogg's picture
smokeydogg Wednesday, 27 Jul 2022 at 8:11pm

Are you going to reintroduce the Indo forecast this season ?
This was probably the main reason I originally subscribed to the paid version even though I do love your local forecasts also !

Redmond Clement's picture
Redmond Clement's picture
Redmond Clement Thursday, 28 Jul 2022 at 1:33pm

It has been serious surfing fun. Too much sun tho, it feels like I have been cooked in a rotisserie.