Quietening down somewhat
Western Australia Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Monday 12th October)
Best Days: Tues, Thurs, Fri: favourable morning winds with reasonable waves across exposed coasts (not much in Perth/Mandurah other than early Tuesday).
Recap: Large surf has dominated the last few days, building Saturday and peaking Sunday with 10-12ft sets across the Margs region, easing back to 8-10ft today. Conditions have been clean through the mornings with offshore winds ahead of fresh afternoon sea breezes. Surf size has been a little smaller than expected across the Perth and Mandurah coasts, peaking at around 2ft+ and 3ft+ respectively on Sunday and smaller otherwise.
This week (Oct 13 - 16)
*This week’s Forecaster Notes will be a little erratic as Craig’s on annual leave*
After very active weekend of waves, the Southern Indian Ocean storm track has gone a little quiet so we’re looking at an extended spell of much smaller surf.
Fortunately, a ridge across the South Coast will maintain moderate SE morning winds across the lower SW region every day except Wednesday, when a temporarily deepening surface trough to the north will strengthen southerlies about all coasts.
We’ll see similar winds north from Bunbury all week, but with a little more strength in the afternoon sea breeze each day.
As for surf, a steady stream of modest but otherwise unremarkable polar lows will supply a steady undercurrent of fun waves to exposed coasts in the lower SW. Today’s surf will ease steadily through Tuesday, initially 5-6ft+ at exposed locations but down to 3-5ft throughout the day. A further easing is expected into Wednesday, ahead of a pulse of new swell Thursday that should rebuild to 4-5ft+ across exposed locations. Wave heights will then ease back from Friday onwards.
As such, aim for Tuesday, Thursday and Friday mornings for the best waves.
Across the Perth and Mandurah coasts, we’ll see very small surf all week. Today’s energy will ease into Tuesday morning (inconsistent 2-3ft Mandurah, 2ft Perth) but it’ll lose a foot or so through the day and Wednesday will bottom right out.
Thursday’s new energy looks to have a smidge too much south in its direction for these regions, so don’t expect much of a boost in size here - and we’ll finish off the working week with very small waves across metro coasts.
This weekend (Oct 17 - 18)
Easing swells are expected all weekend, with similar winds as per the latter part of this week - morning offshores, afternoon seabreezes. There won’t be much size on offer north from Bunbury so you’ll have to aim for exposed beaches across the lower SW.
Next week (Oct 19 onwards)
The swell period charts are lighting up with an impressive fan of 19-20 second period energy across the Indian Ocean later this week, arriving across WA on Sunday night and building through Monday.
However, it’s sourced from a small, tight cut-off low near Madagascar on Tuesday and Wednesday (see below), so the enormous travel distance will limit set waves to maybe 4-6ft across the Margs region, and there could be half an hour wait between waves.
Otherwise, the synoptics are pointing to an extended spell of inactivity and therefore a lengthy round of small surf conditions, only suitable for exposed beaches. More on this in Wednesday’s update.