Craig

Improving conditions ahead of a windy end to the week

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 30th March)

Best Days: Tuesday morning, Wednesday morning besides Perth, Saturday and Sunday desperate surfers in the South West

Recap

Poor and onshore surf on Saturday with a building close-range SW swell, a bit better Sunday and easing across the South West with lumpy 4-6ft waves, better in Mandurah and Perth with clean easing 2-3ft waves around the former, 1-2ft around the latter.

Today we've started slow and bumpy in the South West but a new S/SW groundswell has since started to fill in and sets are now pushing 8ft with a further pulse in size due to reach 8-10ft. Mandurah was a clean and 2-3ft this morning with Perth 1-2ft though expected to kick to 2ft+ this afternoon.

This week and weekend (Mar 31 – Apr 5)

This afternoon's large and powerful S/SW groundswell should reach 8-10ft in the South West, 2-3ft in Mandurah which it already is at, and 2ft+ in Perth but with onshore winds, easing tomorrow as conditions improve across all locations.

A lighter and more variable S-S/SE breeze is due across the South West with easing sets from 6ft+, a significant drop with the low linked to the swell moving off quickly east after spawning late in our swell window. Mandurah should ease back from 2ft+, with 2ft sets in Perth.

For the rest of the week we've got plenty of reinforcing pulses of S/SW swell on the cards, the best one for Wednesday, with it currently being generated by a front that's pushing south of us today.

A fetch of W/SW gales should see the surf hanging around 5-6ft in the South West on Wednesday, 1-2ft in Mandurah though tiny across Perth, easing Thursday from the 5ft range and 1-1.5ft respectively.

Conditions on Wednesday look great with a light to moderate E'ly offshore across the South West, giving into afternoon sea breezes but come Thursday an approaching cold front come deepening mid-latitude low will bring strengthening W/SW shifting S/SW winds and a kick in close-range S/SW swell.

No major size is really expected, with the swell easing into Friday from 4-6ft in the South West, 2ft Mandurah and 1-1.5ft Perth as winds swing slowly back to the S/SE-SE. Now the timing of this swing depends on how quickly the deepening mid-latitude low moves east, with EC having it quicker than GFS, so check back here on Wednesday for a much clearer idea on this.

Either way winds look to swing back more offshore on the weekend though a touch strong at times with smaller levels of background swell energy. There's no significant size expected with tiny waves in Perth and Mandurah, better across the South West and to 3-4ft or so.

Monday may see a small new increase in swell from a tight and short-lived low firing up north of the Heard Island region late week. Beyond this there's nothing too significant to follow, but more on this Wednesday.

Comments

Squidly's picture
Squidly's picture
Squidly commented Monday, 30 Mar 2020 at 4:52pm

Big shout out to the idiots cramming Trigg.... you are going to get the beaches closed for all of us. Spread the f out!

t-diddy's picture
t-diddy's picture
t-diddy commented Tuesday, 31 Mar 2020 at 5:00pm

It'll be interesting to see what comes of the surf regulation - surfers being surfers it'll take a lot to stop them travelling to surf and crowding up into packs.

trevbucky's picture
trevbucky's picture
trevbucky commented Tuesday, 31 Mar 2020 at 11:13pm

Yep I counted over 80 people out at a popular break in Mandurah on Sunday... absolute chaos. Go searching for that not quite so good, but uncrowded spot people.. or we’ll be shut down!

redclement.'s picture
redclement.'s picture
redclement. commented Tuesday, 31 Mar 2020 at 7:07pm

Looks like a run of stimulus swell ahead.

Paul Hauber's picture
Paul Hauber's picture
Paul Hauber commented Saturday, 4 Apr 2020 at 3:21pm

Why is the surf in Perth smaller than in Mandurah, when Rotto blocks Mandurah more?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 4 Apr 2020 at 3:26pm

Take a closer look... swells generally come from the SW.