Good swell through the week, but not the best winds

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 4th November)

Best Days: Protected spot Wednesday morning and Thursday morning, Friday morning in the South West, magnets early Saturday

Recap

Large, onshore and easing surf across the South West Saturday, a bit better conditions wise on Sunday but with a lingering onshore wind and smaller swell. Perth and Mandurah were a mess Saturday but much better yesterday morning with cleaner conditions and easing 2ft waves around Perth, 2ft+ and morning sick around Mandurah.

Winds finally went offshore across the South West this morning but the swell was back to a small, leftover 2-3ft, tiny to the north.

This week and weekend (Nov 5 - 10)

There was an upgrade in the swell due mid-week across the state on Friday and there's since been a further upgrade into today.

A tight and intense low formed around the Heard Island region on the weekend, with satellite observations picking up a great fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W'ly winds in our south-western swell window.

The low is slow moving and continuing to generate a similar strength fetch and will start projecting up towards the Bight this evening and tomorrow while slowly weakening.

A large, long-period SW groundswell is expected, kicking into tomorrow afternoon and likely reaching an easy 6ft by dark in the South West, 1-2ft in Mandurah and Perth but with S/SE tending S/SW winds.

A peak in size is due Wednesday coming in at 8ft to possibly 10ft during the day across the South West swell magnets, 2-3ft in Mandurah and 2ft+ across Perth.

Winds look similar and S/SE through the morning, favouring protected spots, strong S/SW into the afternoon and a little better as the swell eases on Thursday morning with a S/SE-SE breeze.

Friday will be the cleanest with a morning E/SE offshore but the swell will be smaller and easing back from 3-5ft, tiny to the north.

A low point in swell is expected on Saturday morning with an E/NE offshore, while a new long-range and inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due into the afternoon but more so Sunday.

The source of this swell is a strong but distant storm south of South Africa. A fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds have been generated and we'll see the storm continue east while slowly easing this evening and tomorrow.

A moderate sized and inconsistent W/SW groundswell is expected, peaking through Sunday to the 6ft range in the South West, if not for the odd sneaky bigger one, 2ft+ in Mandurah and 2ft in Perth.

Unfortunately a mid-latitude front moving in from the west will strengthen and bring strong W/NW winds on Sunday, spoiling the swell and generating an additional mid-period swell for Monday with W/SW tending SW winds.

Persistent weak fronts look to keep conditions below par into next week with lingering onshore winds and moderate sized mid-period swells. More on this Wednesday though.