Large swell Wednesday with onshores

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 16th June)

Best Days: Wednesday in super protected spots, Thursday around Perth and Gero, Friday morning


The weekend wasn't too flash around Margs while Perth was tiny Saturday and Gero faired the best. Sunday saw a slight kick in size around Perth and Gero into the afternoon as winds held from the northern quadrant.

Today poor conditions continued in the South West while Gero was the pick of the regions with offshore winds and a clean 3ft of swell.

This week (Jun 16 -20)

There's been no real change to the large and powerful W/SW groundswell due later tomorrow ahead of a peak Wednesday across the state, with the vigorous frontal progression forming as expected, generating a large open ocean groundswell.

One of the last fronts in this progression is currently pushing north towards Indonesia, west of about Perth and will dip south-east and into us on Wednesday when the large swell arrives. This will add in some local windswell and with this the models look to be over-forecasting the size a touch.

We should see the swell arriving strongly later tomorrow afternoon but with strong onshores, with a peak due Wednesday morning to 10-12ft+ in the South West, 3-4ft in Perth and 6-8ft+ around Gero.

Winds on Wednesday will remain poor but favour selected bays and points with a strong but easing SW winds.

Thursday will be a touch better as the swell dips steadily from 6-8ft+ in the South West, 3ft in Perth and the 6ft range up at Gero and winds tend lighter onshore in the South West, probably from the W/SW while Perth and Gero should see more variable winds during the morning.

Into the end of the week a medium-large sized SW groundswell is due Friday probably to 5-6ft in the South West, 2ft in Perth and 3-4ft around Gero as winds remain favourable and offshore around Perth and Gero. Margs looks a little dicey with an early N/NE'ly likely to tend N/NW through the morning and strengthen.

This weekend onwards (Jun 21 onwards)

A couple of large back to back W/SW groundswells are due over the weekend (second one being biggest) as another vigorous polar frontal progression fires up north of Heard Island and pushes east towards us during the middle of the week.

The large swell due off this system should arrive Sunday and provide solid 8-10ft sets in the South West, 3ft sets around Perth and 5-6ft+ surf around Gero.

Winds are tricky due to a front shedding off the main progression forming into a mid-latitude low just west of us over the weekend, resulting in favourable S/SE winds around Margs, but onshores further north.

This system may sit off our coast for a few days and drift slowly west resulting in winds swinging more favourably offshore further north into early next week.

Longer term we could see one of the larger and more powerful swells we've seen in a long time developing across the state mid next week. This will be related to a very strong node of the Long Wave Trough drifting through the Southern Indian Ocean bringing with it a very large and broad frontal progression. Check back here on Wednesday for more on this.