Southern Ocean to remain very active for Vicco surfers

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

Victorian Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday May 9th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Fun waves all weekend with light winds and a strong reinforcing swell Sat, easing Sun (outside chance for an embedded pulse Sun too)
  • Small leftovers Mon/Tues
  • Potentially strong new swell combo for Wed PM, though winds unsure
  • Another strong swell event Fri/Sat/Sun

Recap

What a great week of waves it’s been. Thursday continued the late peak in groundswell from Wednesday, offering early 6ft+ sets west of Melbourne and 8ft+ east of Melbourne, with quality options along the Surf Coast reefs and also inside Western Port. Conditions were clean at these locations with winds veering back offshore though early Thursday did see some leftover wobble at exposed spots along all coasts. Size has eased back overnight to 4ft west of Melbourne and 5-6ft to the east, with winds out of the NW favouring the Surf Coast once again. Western Port still has small waves though it’s well past the peak and continuing to ease in size. 

Thursday delivered the goods

So did Friday!

This weekend (May 10 - 11)

No major changes to the weekend forecast, with a reinforcing W/SW swell expected to push through overnight, arresting today’s easing trend and maintaining 3-4ft sets west of Melbourne on Saturday. East of Melbourne will be much bigger, still 4-6ft across open beaches but it’ll be a touch too small for Western Port.

Light variable winds are expected under a weak high pressure system so conditions should be good for most of the day. There’s a possibility for a weak easterly breeze in the afternoon but I don’t think it’ll spoil conditions if it does crop up.

Sunday will generally see an easing trend with the Surf Coast holding early 2-3ft sets (4ft east of Melbourne, becoming smaller during the day) though we may see a fleeting pulse of S/SW swell from a polar low attached to the backside of the front responsible for Saturday’s reinforcing swell. 

This fetch had been mentioned in my Tasmanian notes all week but I omitted it from my Victorian notes, as model guidance earlier in the week had the low a little further to the east (and thus inside the Tasmanian swell shadow). 

The low has since been moved a little further to the west - right on the periphery of Victoria’s swell window - so we may receive a glancing blow of energy on Sunday, but it’s a low confidence event. I’ll update in the comments if anything of interest appears at the regional buoys suggesting an associated upgrade in size. 

Next week (May 12 onwards)

Smaller leftover surf is expected on Monday with a weak trough expected to cross the coast late in the day. This will gradually freshen NW winds ahead of a late SW change though wind strengths won’t amount to much so conditions should be relatively unaffected. Surf size will be small west of Melbourne though (unless Sunday's aformentioned S/SW pulse appears and overperforms), so it’s probably not worth getting too excited about.

I’m still expecting a small long period swell to arrive later Monday and Tuesday, generated by a small but tight low passing near Heard Island yesterday, but without much surf size at the coast due to the large travel distance and short fetch length. So, ignore the Cape Sorell buoy when peak periods spike up to 18+ seconds. 

The latter stages of this low will track below the continent on Sunday and Monday, generating a better SW swell for Wednesday (probably the afternoon) that should boost the Surf Coast back up into the 2-3ft range, though sets will be slow going. 

Another short wave trough trailing behind has been amplified in the latest model runs and is now expected to display a thin fetch of 40-50kt winds within our near swell window overnight Monday into Tuesday. This should generate a secondary swell for Wednesday afternoon that could push as high as 3-5ft in Torquay, albeit for a brief period.

Model guidance has the front associated with this low (only modest in strength, locally) crossing the coast sometime around that period - though the timing is not clear, either late Tuesday or early Wednesday - so it’s not clear how favourable conditions will be for Wednesday’s new swell combo. Ideally we’ll see the former, which will allow for an easing of winds on Wednesday just prior to the new swell arriving.

The rest of the outlook period looks very good, despite a downgrade in the synoptics since Wednesday’s forecast was issued.

A strong series of fronts currently developing below Africa will migrate throughout our swell window all week, generating an impressive fetch that will develop a lengthy swell event for the Victorian coast, arriving overnight Thursday and then pulsing at strength through Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

This is expected to provide two or three three days of waves in the 4-6ft range west of Melbourne, with the peak of the swell - currently pegged for Saturday - possibly pushing a foot or two higher for a brief period.

Again, it’s still early days but it’s a very promising swell pattern ahead as we move through the last few weeks of autumn. 

Comments

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog Friday, 9 May 2025 at 2:36pm

:)

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... Friday, 9 May 2025 at 3:35pm

Oh goodie.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 9 May 2025 at 4:50pm

The Merry-go-round of drying wetsuits

dharrap's picture
dharrap's picture
dharrap Friday, 9 May 2025 at 5:04pm

Great waves today. Check out the Winki cam replay at exactly 8.00am this morning. Even the dolphins got in on the fun!

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Friday, 9 May 2025 at 8:11pm

Great spot! Loving it.

shlap's picture
shlap's picture
shlap Friday, 9 May 2025 at 5:06pm

Pour one out for all the neglected family members

AlfredWallace's picture
AlfredWallace's picture
AlfredWallace Friday, 9 May 2025 at 7:08pm

Day 4. Delivers again, nice run of swell. More on the cards for tomorrow. AW

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy Friday, 9 May 2025 at 9:22pm

of all the times to be out of the water injured this isn't great

Tabby10's picture
Tabby10's picture
Tabby10 Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 5:25am

Being injured sucks, I reckon yesterday was the best day of the week so far

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 8:07am

I'm out for the next few months - this is painful to watch.

But pumped that it's pumping for everyone else.

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 4:19pm

What's your damage Anthony? I'm out 6ish weeks with a foot fracture

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 9:10am

What a week, as good as I’ve had in a long time. Waves and epic sunrises for what feels like eternity. This morning beat my expectations too. Hope everyone is scoring yewwwww

AlfredWallace's picture
AlfredWallace's picture
AlfredWallace Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 5:09pm

Day 5. Still pumping, sunny and warm morning until lunchtime, then shite wind out of the east quadrant. AW

monsieur poopy's picture
monsieur poopy's picture
monsieur poopy Saturday, 10 May 2025 at 6:24pm

Hey Thermos / Craigos

What are the odds of the embedded pulse materialising tomorrow ?

Kind regards ,
MP

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 11 May 2025 at 8:11am

No signs of it at the moment, however it's only just starting to show across southern Tasmania and so would be a late afternoon arrival along the Vicco coast (if it arrives at all). Will need to see an upswing at the Cape Sorell buoy by midday or early afternoon at the latest in order to have any confidence.

Moonah's picture
Moonah's picture
Moonah Sunday, 11 May 2025 at 8:59am

Thermal you had me excited with the early call of some big days on the surf coast late week/weekend.
Hopefully it fires up again.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 11 May 2025 at 9:16am

The last six days of perfection haven't been enough to quench your thirst?

Moonah's picture
Moonah's picture
Moonah Sunday, 11 May 2025 at 10:05am

Ha! Well ermmm no if I’m being honest. Wrong coast and all.
Only reason I got excited for the early call is because those days are much much less crowded than the size range of this week.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 11 May 2025 at 11:06am

Ah no probs. Still early in the season, plenty of time for a few LWT episodes.

Moonah's picture
Moonah's picture
Moonah Sunday, 11 May 2025 at 11:45am

Absolutely.