Make the most of the current surf

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 9th November)

Best Days: Today, tomorrow on the beaches, early Friday for the keen Surf Coast, Saturday afternoon on the beaches, Sunday morning exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell tomorrow, with stronger, inconsistent groundswell sets into the PM, easing slowly Fri
  • Strong N/NE winds tomorrow, easing on dark
  • Mod-fresh SW tending S/SW winds Fri (lighter and W/NW at dawn on the Surf Coast)
  • Easing surf Sat with moderate S winds, tending variable into the PM
  • Smaller Sun with fresh N/NE tending NW winds
  • Strong W/SW winds Mon with a moderate sized, building SW swell into the PM, peaking Tue

Recap

The beaches and selected reefs continued to offer great conditions yesterday with a reinforcing mid-period S/SW swell and favourable winds that persisted into the afternoon east of Melbourne as a storm fired up to the west and fizzled while moving east.

Today the swell is similar in size but a little less consistent with sets in the 4ft range to the east of Melbourne and 2ft to occasionally 3ft to the west. Winds should remain favourable all day again for the beaches, likely tending lighter E/NE later this afternoon/evening.

The waves are still cooking this AM

This week and next (Nov 10 - 18)

After the last few days of great conditions and perfect sized waves for the exposed beaches, we've got some stronger swell energy that will likely over power things as winds don't really favour the Surf Coast reefs.

A strong polar low that formed in our far swell window on the weekend generated a healthy fetch of gales and some inconsistent SW groundswell that's due to arrive tomorrow afternoon, peak overnight and ease Friday.

Ahead of this, mid-period levels of moderate sized swell are due tomorrow morning, generated by weaker but persistent strong W'ly winds as the low continued east, under the country the past two days. The remnants of the low are now passing under Tasmania and we should see the swell coming in around a fairly consist 3ft on the Surf Coast tomorrow morning, 4-5ft to the east, with the groundswell for the afternoon pushing to 3ft to occasionally 4ft and 5-6ft on the sets respectively west and east of Melbourne.

Easing sets from a similar size are due on Friday, down further Saturday from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast magnets and 4ft to the east.

Looking at the local winds and a weakening mid-latitude low pushing in from the west will bring strong and gusty N/NE winds tomorrow, easing on dark, with a shallow SW change due into the evening/early Friday morning.

Conditions are a little dicey Friday with moderate to fresh SW tending S/SW winds due to develop shortly after dawn, but the Surf Coast should see a window of light W/NW winds.

Onshore S'ly winds (moderate) will persist into the start of the weekend as the trough clears to the east, and more variable breezes could develop through Saturday afternoon. We'll confirm this Friday.

Sunday is tricky as a broader, stronger and deepening inland low drops into the Bight off South Australia. This will see winds swing more N/NE and strengthen, shifting NW into the afternoon as the low moves further east.

Swell wise, the exposed beaches look to be small and easing from 3ft, small to tiny on the Surf Coast and to 1-2ft.

Moving into next week, the low will bring strong W/SW winds to the coast on Monday and also drag up a polar frontal system, generating moderate to possibly large sized S/SW swell for Tuesday/Wednesday.

As always GFS is going hardest regarding the strength and expected size, while EC has a weaker and less favourable swell producer.

If it goes EC's way the swell will be weaker and more south along with poor, strong S/SW winds on Tuesday, and if it goes the way of GFS, winds will be more westerly and the swell much better.

I feel we'll fall somewhere in between so check back here on Friday for a clearer idea on next week's developments.

Also in the mix through early to mid next week will be some healthy mid-period SW swell from a polar front pushing under the country this Friday and Saturday, but more on this in the next update.

Comments

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Wednesday, 9 Nov 2022 at 6:42pm

How much joy has this little run been?

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Wednesday, 9 Nov 2022 at 7:38pm

Superb run. What more could you ask for? Pure perfection in terms if conditions and weather, lasting for most of the day with only light winds for the late, swell only now bottoming out at 2ft. Fri/Sat/Sun were epic, but this week's just been as fun as it gets.

Makes me think back to the grovels I had during winter.....and shudder. Can't believe how bad it was, compared to this!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 10 Nov 2022 at 11:45am

A bit slow this morning but the swell has filled in better now..

JB1's picture
JB1's picture
JB1 Thursday, 10 Nov 2022 at 3:41pm

Wonderful past week.. been swinging both ways, east and west.

OHV500's picture
OHV500's picture
OHV500 Thursday, 10 Nov 2022 at 4:15pm

Went way way east last weekend - was classic :)
About time

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 11 Nov 2022 at 7:03am

Just saw a kook on a foil on the Torquay cam in the crowd stuff up his take-off and nearly take out a beginner.

Selfish wanker who has no regard for others safety. Go learn by yourself on an uncrowded beach until you get proficient enough to surf amongst others!

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Friday, 11 Nov 2022 at 7:05am

Saw one at burleigh the other day, same thing

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Friday, 11 Nov 2022 at 9:47am

Torquay Point is dangerous enough as it is without a foil thrown into the chaos that exists out there

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Friday, 11 Nov 2022 at 9:50am

There's so much open beach, with empty and fairly soft waves nearby.....why learn at torquay!!!!?

I'd also add, don't foil among others even if proficient! Way too sketchy.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Friday, 11 Nov 2022 at 10:26am

They mostly hit up point danger into cosy corner and look like they have a great time, which is a good spot for it. Can't imagine what would make a foiler think torquay point looks like a good spot for their water based machetes...

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 11 Nov 2022 at 10:02am

Feels like the foil fad has already peaked and waned around here.
But credit to them, overwhelmingly they stayed away from paddle surfers.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Friday, 11 Nov 2022 at 10:07am

You reckon it’s waned?
Really?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 11 Nov 2022 at 10:29am

Along the Boat Channel to Pub stretch it seems like there are less guys doing it.

What do you see?

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Friday, 11 Nov 2022 at 1:08pm

There’s a reasonably big core group going out for the earlies every morn. But also a lot of them are getting into the wing foiling and sup foiling and the banks in the river are good for them at the moment.