Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 4th November)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Strong but easing surf Sat with generally light winds (tending E'ly at times)
• Another strong groundswell late Sat/Sun, with generally light winds (tending E'ly at times)
• Easing surf Mon/Tues, leveling out Wed/Thurs, then pulsing again Fri - fun waves at open beaches all week with light winds

Recap

Wednesday’s surf eased a touch into Thursday, holding 4ft sets west of Melbourne and 5-6ft to the east, with early W’ly winds swinging SW through the day, keeping conditions bumpy. We’ve seen a kick in stronger groundswell today, with the Torquay reefs pulling in solid 5-6ft sets under generally favourable W/NW tending W’ly winds. Surf size is much bigger east of Melbourne. 

This weekend (Nov 5 - 6)

We’ve got some more great waves due over the weekend.

A weak high pressure ridge will maintain a light variable flow across the coast, though it will tend easterly at times - and this may affect surf quality across the reefs west of Melbourne.

Today’s strong swell is expected to ease a touch into Saturday morning, ahead of a renewal of long period energy into the afternoon, generated by a strong fetch at the tail end of our recent Southern Ocean conveyor belt.

This activity looks really good on paper, though I’m cautious of suggesting any more size than we’re seeing today (i.e. 5-6ft across the Surf Coast reefs) as the source storm track was/is somewhat unusual: starting off as a broad belt of off-axis N/NW gales to the south-east of Madagascar, before strengthening a polar low and front along the ice shelf as it tracked below Western Australia, and exiting our swell window today as a broad westerly flow under South Australia (see below).

I’m genuinely pretty excited about what we’ll see the coming days from this next pulse, as all of the storm generating activity has happened quite some distance from the coast, which will allow it to organise into really well defined swell lines once it filters into Bass Strait. The reduced confidence lies in projected surf heights, as the models are focusing the longer period energy into SA (rather than Vic) which is attenuating predicted surf size. 

So, enough waffle - let’s fly some numbers.

I’m expecting today’s swell to ease back to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast on Saturday morning (4-6ft east of Melbourne), becoming a touch smaller and a lot less consistent through the middle of the day, ahead of a late afternoon pulse that will will show best overnight and early Sunday morning, pushing 5-6ft at the swell magnet reefs west of Melbourne and 6-8ft at exposed beaches east of Melbourne.

Expect smaller surf at most regional surf spots. Size will probably ease back through the day too.

Conditions should be generally very good under a light variable flow, though bear in mind any developing breeze - likely under 10-15kts - will crop up from the eastern quadrant, both days. 

So, there ya go.

Next week (Nov 7 onwards)

Next week looks very good too. 



The broader outlook is for a continuation of generally high pressure over the state and light winds, tending NE at times, along with back-to-back groundswells, source from polar lows. These storms are expected to be quite strong (great for swell potential) and well aligned for our region, but unfortunately they'll be most active in the far reaches of our swell window, which will temper wave heights across the Vicco coast due to significant wave decay.

So, expect a slow decrease in size from Sunday through Monday (early 4ft sets at the swell magnets west of Melbourne, easing to 2-3ft during the day), persisting in this size range Tuesday, before restrengthening in the 2-3ft+ range Wednesday, holding Thursday, ahead of a slightly bigger long period SW swell due around Friday that should nudge the 3-4ft range. 

You can whack another foot or two on these heights at the exposed beaches east of Melbourne.

All coasts are looking pretty fun to be honest, it’s a really nice late pattern of late winter swells with springtime winds. 

Get into it!