Remnants of this weeks Tasman low are expected to drift NE towards the North Island over the weekend and reintensify Sun/Mon with a fetch of severe gales extending out of Cook Strait into the Tasman Sea.
Tiny beginners waves tomorrow and early next week ahead of some better swell energy mid-late in the week.
An extended E’ly pattern then sets up, as high pressure straddles New Zealand and the troughy remnants of the Tasman low squeeze pressure gradients along a long, broad fetch extending through the South Pacific adjacent to the North Island and extending into the Coral Sea. Models show this fetch then further retrograding back towards the Australian East Coast to end the working week.
Large swell pulses over the coming period with mostly onshore winds and limited windows for a clean wave.
Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show our Tasman low in a great place, slowly drifting E of Tasmania towards New Zealand, maintaining a nice pressure gradient squeeze with a high pressure cell SE of Tasmania. As expected, the low has filled in a bit, with a corresponding lessening of windspeeds, mostly low end gales, compared to the storm force winds of it’s “bombing” phase.
Building westerly swell energy with favourable winds for the South Coast but windows on the Mid.
Fading surf on the weekend but clean on the beaches, with some small, slow swell early next week. A larger mix of swells is due mid-late week with winds from the northern quadrant.
Strong swell from the SE/ESE being generated by the SW flank of the low as it drifts towards the South Island should see plenty of surf in the 5ft range, holding into Sat before easing back.
Strong S'ly winds and a good new swell tomorrow, cleaner as it eases before going tiny to flat for a period.
This S swell will combine with the long range E swell showing 3-4ft sets, potentially offering up some A frame beachies if you can crack the code. Friday looks well worth a paddle or two.
