Great mix of S and E swells ahead with a few periods of devil wind to deal with

Steve Shearer picture
Steve Shearer (freeride76)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 25 Aug)

SE Qld Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

  • Long range E swell event start to show late Wed, inconsistent surf holds from Thurs-Sat with head high sets, easing back Sun
  • Mod S swell Thurs, easing into Fri
  • Fun blend of SE and E swells this weekend
  • New pulse of SE swell Mon
  • More SE/ESE swell likely mid next week, revisions likely, stay tuned for details

Northern NSW Forecast Summary (tl;dr)

  • Long range E swell event start to show late Wed, inconsistent surf holds from Thurs-Sat with head high sets, blending with dominant S to SE swell
  • Strong S swell, easing a notch through Thurs and holding Fri with mostly offshore winds
  • Fun blend of SE and E swells likely next weekend
  • Another pulse of SE swell likely Mon.
  • More SE/ESE swell likely mid next week, revisions likely, stay tuned for details

Recap

Very dynamic 48 hrs has just ensued with a bombing low forming off the NSW South Coast yesterday and a NE windswell that was rapidly cleaned up by W’ly winds generated by the developing low. Fun 2-3ft surf was on offer through the region in the a’noon.

Today has seen a large spike in S swell across NENSW, larger and arriving ahead of Mondays f/cast expectations. Surf showed in the mid morning across the MNC and built rapidly into the 5-6ft range, showing by lunch-time in the Ballina-Byron region in the 3-5ft range but not really making much of an impact north of the border, despite buoys registering the arrival of the swell. W’ly winds had a more NW tilt on them later this a’noon north of Yamba, putting devil winds up the face of regional Points. 

This week (Aug 25-27)

Alright, this vigorous Tasman low will dominate surf and weather for the week and into the weekend. Keeping in mind these systems are incredibly dynamic so small changes in position, strength and movement will have impacts on our surf potential, lets wade in.

Current ASCAT (sat windspeed) passes confirm Mondays f/cast expectations with a thin, coast-hugging fetch of storm force SSW oriented winds. Movement of the low away from the coast, allowing the fetch to become dominated by more favourably oriented S to SE winds on the SW flank of the low has been slowed, which equals another day of directional S swell Thursday, instead of the more SSE swell suggested by Mondays f/cast.

Todays spike in S swell for NENSW is expected to peak through the night and settle down through tomorrow , unfortunately not making much of an impact in SEQLD. Expect 3-5ft surf through most of NENSW tomorrow, with some bigger 4-6ft surf at S swell magnets, though it’s likely they’ll be overwhelmed. SEQLD will be relying more on the long range E swell which has just started to show at low levels. By Thurs long lined sets in the 3ft range should fill in, but expect long waits and inconsistency, especially around unfavourable tidal phases. S swell is likely to top out at 2ft+ on S facing beaches and Northern Corners.

Winds look a bit tricky for Thursday. Slow moving Tasman lows create a synoptic “vacuum” that tends to be filled by devil winds from the N. Offshore winds through the morning are likely to trend N to NE through the day before clocking back around NW later on.

This wind regime is likely to extend from SEQLD down to Ballina or even Yamba so be prepared for periods of N’ly component winds. 

Further south the synoptic W’lies are likely to dominate all day. Expect these devil winds to persist through Fri. 

Moderate S swells continue into Friday. The proximate S’ly fetch along the NSW South Coast weakens right off through Thursday and with a slower movement of the low away from the coast it’ll delay the arrival of better angled SSE/SE swell. An energised Tasman Sea will still provide plenty of energy from the S through Fri with size in the 3-5ft range at exposed S facing spots, grading smaller 3-4 across less exposed spots and 2ft in SEQLD.  This S swell will combine with the long range E swell showing 3-4ft sets, potentially offering up some A frame beachies if you can crack the code. Friday looks well worth a paddle or two.

This weekend (Aug 28-29)

The Tasman low finally moves into better position later Thurs into Fri, weakening as it does so. The weekend still looks great though, just smaller in size due to the declining windspeeds on the SW flank of the low, compared to Monday’s notes. The pattern still looks favourable: a high pressure cell sliding E of Tasmania and a low drifting towards the South Island. That will supply a mostly offshore wind pattern, tending to light seabreezes on Sunday  and great quality SSE/SE swell both days.

Based on current modelling Sat looks a little undersize to start with, likely 3ft, bigger at more exposed magnets. A stronger SE pulse is expected in the a’noon generated by the fetch consolidating later Thurs into Fri. That gives good odds of surf muscling up into the 3-5ft  range in NENSW, smaller 3-4ft in SEQLD, with offshore winds. This will combine with E swell which will be slowly easing back in size and consistency, though there should be 3ft sets still on offer. Saturday looks great. 

Sunday also looks the goods, with that pulse holding in at similar size range and light offshore breezes which should extend through to lunch-time, before winds tend to light nor-east seabreezes. East swell will be dropping back to the 2ft range and becoming marginal through Sunday.

As we mentioned these Tasman lows are incredibly dynamic so stay tuned Fri for a final tune up on size and timing but there’ll be plenty of surf anyway you slice it.

Longer Term (Aug 30) and beyond

Next week looks incredibly dynamic with a complex, unstable Tasman sea set to provide more surf, although model divergence is significant so these calls will be subject to major revision more than likely.

The remnants of this weeks Tasman low drift towards New Zealand early next week. Models suggest a small, weak low forming off Sydney, which is not a swell produce but brings a W’ly change, likely Mon.

This weak low may join with the remains of the current low, re-energising either a fetch near the South Island and/or a fetch out of Cook Strait. 

That would suggest a pulse of SE/ESE swell possibly Wed.

GFS then maintains the SE fetch out of Cook Strait and extends it northwards and into the Northern Tasman/Southern Coral sea as a new high pressure ridge sets up along the East Coast, suggesting a round of E swell mid/later next week.

EC is in favour of the remnants of the low drifting into the South Pacific north of the North Island and forming a broad fetch of SE winds north of the North Island. 

The blocking pattern for S swells remains in place.

Both these scenarios favour NENSW and SEQLD. But don’t get too attached, with so much model instability it’s likely we’ll be making major revisions on Fri. Check back then for the latest.

 

Comments

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Wednesday, 25 Aug 2021 at 5:51pm

Great forecast Steve. Thanks for covering all bases.

Dannon's picture
Dannon's picture
Dannon Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 5:10am

I'll second that.

Thoughtful, well written report.

Thanks F/R.

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut Wednesday, 25 Aug 2021 at 6:25pm

Frothing

Charlie Chalk's picture
Charlie Chalk's picture
Charlie Chalk Wednesday, 25 Aug 2021 at 6:30pm

thanks for forecasts steve.
whats the definitive word on "unfavourable tidal phases".?.. everyone seems to have a different opinion!

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut Wednesday, 25 Aug 2021 at 7:06pm

I'll tell you what unfavourable tidal phases mean for the vast majority of beachies along GC.

Low tide = close outs
High tide = fat burgers

Take your pic

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Wednesday, 25 Aug 2021 at 7:26pm

That’s the rocket I know and love.

Tick's picture
Tick's picture
Tick Wednesday, 25 Aug 2021 at 7:51pm

LD - haha. Everything in the world is right again.

tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir Wednesday, 25 Aug 2021 at 8:55pm

I’ll roll with the mid tide thanks RH

scrotina's picture
scrotina's picture
scrotina Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 10:07am

anyone crack the code on the gc today? fun 3-4ft peaks where i was, but sadly no barrels

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 5:41pm

Roomie got two nice ones, both lefts and plenty of space. Just some nice long walls for me. Been a real fun week so far and if tomorrow is suppose to be the better day, than I'm stoked. Much needed reminder of how decent waves can make you feel.

NickT's picture
NickT's picture
NickT Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 5:45pm

Yip was great. Tomorrow looking good too. I expect tomorrow to be packed everywhere with the show day holiday so pick the right spot!

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 11:20am

Devil wind curveball: WNW at Ballina AWS, light SE on the coast.

could do anything from here.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 11:23am

Geez the water is nice.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 11:29am

beautiful.
so many bait balls around.
Dolphins, gannets, even seen some tuna busting up.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 11:43am

Yes was magic.

Shared a 4 foot right semi-point with one other bloke for company. That swimming pool water is such a pleasure to surf in. Looked like a few long tails kicking around here too. Tailor chopping also. Surfing is so much fun. I needed that soooooo much.

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 11:52am

Fukin great morning.
Overcrowded as usual but good thing I have a secret bank to rely on.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 11:53am

Hopefully this border / lockdown business had at least a silver lining for Leba region this morning

richard187's picture
richard187's picture
richard187 Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 2:40pm

Does it fuck, makes no difference unfortunately

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 2:47pm

That’s no good mate. Getting tougher to find a quiet, quality surf hey?

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 1:52pm

We had the gold yesterday but scraped a bronze today. Shorter period, dropping swell and more south in the wind gave it a wobble with double the crowd.
Classic “should have been here yesterday” surf.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 2:15pm

Newish Superbank camera got a great view..love it.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 2:20pm

Pretty much summed it up crg, except the crowd was still workable today round here.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 2:23pm

New E trade-swell looking the goods!

Troppo's picture
Troppo's picture
Troppo Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 2:37pm

Two surfs in one day!!

Been a while since I pulled that off.

Crowds very light up on SC.

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 6:02pm

Fck won’t be now thanks to you. Seriously why do you even have to advertise the location FFS!!

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 7:19pm

Cunts who never learnt to shut the fuck up until the swell's gone, to their own detriment too, absolute dunces.

Troppo's picture
Troppo's picture
Troppo Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 7:48pm

Take a breath legends - and curb the aggression!!!

Sunshine coast is 80km long give or take. If that is naming a spot, you are a far smarter man than anyone else on the planet.

If I named a spot, fair game, but I didn't. So where do you get off firing abuse like that at me??

Calling me a c@nt. Not good.

I got a few fun surf waves, and was pretty happy about it.

Seriously, these sort of comments are not called for. You gurus are on a swell and surf forecasting website, part of a surf forecasting community, and you fire this sh#t off. Next you will be up freeride for saying there will be swell on a certain day!

Pull your heads in heros! It's seriously not called for!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 7:51pm

I agree, you didn't give any hints or mention known breaks and it's a long stretch of coast/beaches. Testy crowd eh!

Dannon's picture
Dannon's picture
Dannon Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 8:08pm

There's shop called bunnings....
They sell this stuff called rapid set....
Have a tea spoon after supper trop.

tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 8:14pm

+1. Doesn't take a genius to figure that 3ft of swell & offshores will amount to a good day of waves on the open beaches. Plenty of space on the Sunny. No naming of spots = no issue.

Someone must've pissed in Sprout's cornflakes.

mr mick's picture
mr mick's picture
mr mick Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 8:41pm

Fun surf today on the east coast of NSW......aw shit blew that, what an absolute dunce I am!

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 8:45pm

Whilst I stand by my sentiment, fair cop on the delivery, apologies for that.
I feel with half the country moving here recently, it only takes a mention here and there to make a car load of Brizzos decide to head North instead of South and further crowd out said 80km of coast line.
To me saying Snapper will be pumping tomorrow isn't ok just because it's a known spot, that could make it 550 people instead of 500 which is felt to an even greater degree when it's 10 instead of 5 etc.
Any mention of anywhere is bad for that place especially in this day and age and particularly before a swell's run out.
But I also agree that such a comment is hypocritical on a surf forecasting site haha.
Anyhoo, once my subscription runs out I'll be less of a hypocrite I guess.
Good vibes.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 7:25pm

.

tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 7:44pm

> Crowds very light up on SC

You're obviously not near my neck of the woods. My local bank has never been this crowded. Fucking Covid.

Troppo's picture
Troppo's picture
Troppo Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 7:51pm

surfed 8am with one other, then midday with 6 people scattered across a few hundred metres.

There were fun waves all along the open beaches, I had a good look around and didnt see anything resembling a crowd.

tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 8:11pm

Good to hear my man. It was pretty good but nothing mind-blowing. Had much more fun on Tuesday w/ the NE swell. I hope you get some tomorrow as well!

Troppo's picture
Troppo's picture
Troppo Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 9:00pm

Cheers mate. As rockethut often says, it’s these conditions that give us the fun waves. Nothing epic, but fun and enjoyable.

dandob's picture
dandob's picture
dandob Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 4:46pm

I'd say east swell was more prominent than the south here today.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 4:52pm

great combo day here. E swell deffo muscled up this arvo.
about 50-50 with S swell/

scrotina's picture
scrotina's picture
scrotina Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 5:54pm

FR, reckon we might get light SW around southern ends of the GC tomorrow early?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 5:56pm

yep.
or WSW

scrotina's picture
scrotina's picture
scrotina Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 7:04pm

ta

Rockethut's picture
Rockethut's picture
Rockethut Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 9:01pm

The other countries must be enjoying uncrowded indo right now.
Thanks to the Ozzie international borders being shut.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Thursday, 26 Aug 2021 at 9:09pm

With a quick check on dusk this evening, I'm fairly confident I'm going to crack freeride's code tomorrow.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 27 Aug 2021 at 7:31am

Direction spectral data from the Byron Buoy showing the combo swells really well.

Redmond Clement's picture
Redmond Clement's picture
Redmond Clement Friday, 27 Aug 2021 at 7:40am

I am with tomrnoir. Tuesday was heaps of fun. Excellent shape.

Izzyduff's picture
Izzyduff's picture
Izzyduff Friday, 27 Aug 2021 at 8:50am

How's the water clarity at the moment
Beautiful morning
I hope everyone got a couple
Thanks for the reports freeride.

gsco's picture
gsco's picture
gsco Friday, 27 Aug 2021 at 10:57am

Sunny Coast pumping this morning, surfed for 3 hrs, snapped a board, happy!

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Friday, 27 Aug 2021 at 11:40am

Rockethut....indo u say
Bukit looks nice right now
https://balibelly.com/pages/uluwatu

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Friday, 27 Aug 2021 at 11:57am

That was ridiculous

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 27 Aug 2021 at 12:09pm

Been a great run eh! Busy as down here but great waves and a whole weekend + more to come.

davetherave's picture
davetherave's picture
davetherave Friday, 27 Aug 2021 at 1:07pm

Jet ski madness at Tweed Coast beach today. Many km of beach with peaks every 500 metres in my neck of the woods, yet jetskis coming within metres of paddlers and also ruining wave faces as they went back out.
If Hedgey can do the right thing, so can all you lot that need to show respect to the paddle crew. Pretty poor performance.
200 metres is the distance law in NSW when tow/ step off surfing using a jetski friends.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 27 Aug 2021 at 1:34pm

That's so poor! Did anyone call them out, tell them to stay the safe distance away and piss of down the beach. I would have!

crg's picture
crg's picture
crg Friday, 27 Aug 2021 at 2:03pm

If Wednesday was a gold medal day and Thursday just scraped a bronze...then today was a gold medal with a world record and a celebratory 3 way with the women’s volleyball team.
Fark me...what a day.
And it’s still pumping...

tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir's picture
tomrnoir Friday, 27 Aug 2021 at 3:48pm

> celebratory 3 way with the women’s volleyball team.

Did chuckle. Stoked for you mate, hope your arms hold up this weekend..

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 27 Aug 2021 at 2:11pm

hahahahaha.

dazzler's picture
dazzler's picture
dazzler Friday, 27 Aug 2021 at 2:22pm

Show Day was very good today, a fair crowd but no one from Brisbane

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Friday, 27 Aug 2021 at 2:30pm

Surfed a point on the incoming yesterday, got 2 super long fun af waves but mostly waiting around.
Today i went on my own to surf the spot that was pumping yesterday but mate was too puss to tackle.
Was sick fun, got some great steep waves, one nice barrel. Other blokes getting some sick pits though.
Got pretty lully towards the high though.
Hope everyone is scoring !

Captainsurf's picture
Captainsurf's picture
Captainsurf Friday, 27 Aug 2021 at 8:34pm

Yeah wow scored some beachies...er..on the East Coast of Australia...where there was a public holiday. Funky wind swung offshore in the arvo. Pumped, low crew for the location. My arms...no more energy to typ